Foreign affairs experts have weighed in after US senators proposed a draft resolution calling for Thailand to uphold democracy, human rights and the rule of law following the use of violence against pro-democracy demonstrators.
On Dec 3, US Senator Bob Menendez, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and US Senator Dick Durbin introduced a resolution to affirm the US' commitment to democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in Thailand. It was supported by seven other senators, including Thai-American US Senator Tammy Duckworth.
In a press release, Mr Menendez said it is critical the US Senate stands with the democracy movement in Thailand now that democracy is "under assault" from many quarters. Protesters are seeking democratic changes, not a revolution.
"With this resolution, we are sending a clear message of solidarity and support for freedom of speech and assembly in Thailand, and urge all parties not to engage in needless violence or harassment," he said.
In the resolution, nine senators put forward five proposals. They reaffirm their bilateral relations with Thais in their quest for democracy. They also urge the Thai government to uphold democratic values and the US government to support the right of Thais to determine their future. Lastly, they stress that a military coup would be counterproductive and undermine bilateral ties.
New law "unlikely"
Prapee Apichatsakol, a political science lecturer at Srinakharinwirot University and vice president of the American Studies Association in Thailand, said it is unlikely the draft resolution will come to fruition because, in the context of international politics, president-elect Joe Biden may feel the need to forge closer ties with Thailand to counterbalance the influence of China in the region.
"I think the US will not take a hard line on us. However, Thailand has already pivoted to China under the Prayut government. Our foreign policy is well-calibrated because we approach major powers equally," she said.
Asst Prof Prapee said Thailand could still use diplomatic channels to discuss the matter and restore ties with the US. America and other European countries often express such concerns about democracy whenever coups and military rule take place in Thailand, so much so that our governments must be used to it.
She also drew attention to the similar case of Hong Kong protesters. In November last year, US President Donald Trump approved the Human Rights and Democracy Act to assess whether Hong Kong has enough autonomy to retain its special status with the US.
"However, bear in mind that the law takes effect against a background of US-China trade war and rivalry," she added.
Things to come
Nevertheless, retired lawmaker and ambassador Kobsak Chutikul said the draft resolution is "very detailed" and "more than usual" because it goes into great lengths to mention key political events, including the development of bilateral ties since 1818, the transition to a constitutional monarchy in 1932 and the recent "flawed" election.
Mr Kobsak said the resolution can hint at "things to come" under the leadership of Mr Biden, who will be sworn in on Jan 20 next year, despite the fact we will have to wait and see how the entire US Senate will respond.
"Unlike Trump, Biden will push for democracy and human rights. We must be aware that it is an indication of things to come. The progressive tide is turning. We can't dismiss it out of hand not only from Biden but also from other allies of the US," he said.
Mr Kobsak said the resolution could provoke public criticism because the dust has yet to settle over the presidential election. On the other hand, it will carry more weight under the new administration.
"The poor timing can backfire because people can ask 'why don't you put your own house in order first?' It might also be counterproductive for protesters because they can be accused of being backed by foreign countries."