While the likelihood of Bangkok experiencing another major earthquake similar to the one that occurred in Myanmar on March 28 remains very low, experts say the city may be significantly affected by quakes along two fault lines in the region, which have been dormant for quite some time.
The experts made the remarks at the Bangkok Post Knowledge Forum 2025 "After the Quake: From Lessons to Prevention. What We Must Know When the World Shifts", held at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Communication Arts in Bangkok on Thursday.
Prof Dr Pennung Warnitchai, chair of the Structural Engineering programme at the Asian Institute of Technology, told the forum that a previous study had identified three major fault lines that could potentially trigger a strong earthquake impacting Bangkok.
They are the Kanchanaburi Fault in western Thailand, which could produce a quake of magnitude 7.0 to 7.5, the Sagaing Fault in Myanmar, with the potential for a magnitude 8.0 event, and the Arakan Subduction Zone in the Andaman Sea, which could generate a powerful quake ranging from magnitude 8.5 to 9.0.
The earthquake which struck the region on March 28 was caused by a slip along the Sagaing Fault, which leaves two remaining fault zones with the potential to affect the region.
He said the probability of either event occurring within the lifetime of the current generation is very low, estimated at just 10%.
He explained that because Bangkok and its surrounding areas sit atop a soft soil basin, low-frequency seismic waves from distant earthquakes can be significantly amplified — by as much as three to four times — as they pass through the basin.
From left: Poomipak Julmanichoti, Chief Strategy Officer of Sansiri Public Company Limited; Prof Amorn Pimanmas, President of the Thai Structural Engineers Association; Assoc Prof Preeda Akarachantachote, Dean of Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Communication Arts; Worachai Bhicharnchitr, Vice Chairman Bangkok Post PLC; Prof Pennung Warnitchai, Professor of Structural Engineering, Asian Institute of Technology; and Assoc Prof Alongkorn Parivudhiphongs, Deputy Dean of Research and International Affairs, Head of the Department of Journalism and Information of Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Communication Arts; at the Bangkok Post Knowledge Forum 2025 “After the quake". (Photo: Varuth Hirunyatheb)
Amorn Pimanmas, president of the Thailand Structural Engineers Association, said most buildings in Thailand were built to withstand earthquakes comparable to the one that took place on March 28.
Prof Dr Amorn said the March 28 earthquake presents an opportunity for Thailand to review and improve existing standards, by addressing any gaps in regulations, which would in turn restore public confidence in the nation’s construction standards.
Meanwhile, Poomipak Julmanichoti, chief strategy officer of Sansiri Plc, affirmed that all of its buildings nationwide remain structurally safe following the March 28 quake.
็็He said that after the quake, it took the company three to four days to conduct safety checks at more than 200 projects.
Its staff also helped more than 20,000 households with insurance claims for cracks and damages to the buildings from the quake.
After inspecting over 50,000 units across Bangkok, the company said most projects only reported minor exterior damage.
He said Sansiri is committed to ensuring resident safety and long-term sustainability through the use of earthquake-resistant designs and sustainable construction materials, he said.
The foundations of 29 upcoming projects have been reinforced to ensure soil stability, underscoring the company’s proactive approach to building safety in a seismically sensitive region, he said.
In addition to engineering and structural concerns, the seminar also highlighted weaknesses in public communication during the crisis.
Assoc Prof Alongkorn Parivudhiphongs raised concerns about the lack of preparation and emergency response plan, which resulted in mass panic, especially after images and clips from unrelated disasters began making their rounds on social media.
"I still question whether people know what to do after receiving an early warning alert, he added.
“We need a reliable, centralised warning system that not only alerts the public but also provides essential knowledge — such as basic engineering concepts, geographical awareness, and crisis communication strategies,” said Assoc Prof Alongkorn.
“We also need to understand how to manage algorithmic challenges, especially when online platforms recycle and amplify a mix of information and fake news.”
Worachai Bhicharnchitr delivers the opening remark at the Bangkok Post Knowledge Forum 2025.
Assoc Prof Preeda Akarachantachote, Dean of Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Communication Arts, addresses the forum. (Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)
The forum has attracted a broad spectrum of participants, with many busily taking notes on their laptops. (Photo: Varuth Hirunyatheb)
