Thaksin Shinawatra has chosen to celebrate his upcoming birthday only with his family, prompting speculation he might be considering quitting or taking a break from politics.
Over the past decade, the fugitive former prime minister's birthday celebrations have always been political affairs, with MPs and members of Pheu Thai, the party he founded, flying from Thailand to give him their best wishes. His comments on the occasions always keep media busy deciphering them for political clues.
But Thaksin apologised to his usual well-wishers on Twitter on Sunday night, writing he was not able to throw a party for his 70th birthday on July 26 this year.
"I will have a meal with my children and grandchildren at home. The place has limitations and Dubai is hot now, nearly 50 degrees [Celsius]. An outdoors arrangement is impossible. Thank you everyone for your wishes. [I] will always think of you," Thaksin wrote.
Jatuporn Prompan, chief of the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, said on Monday that at 70, Thaksin would naturally reflect on the past and think more about his family.
If Thaksin was really quitting politics, Pheu Thai would have to stand on its own feet and think for itself, Mr Jatuporn said.
"Personally, I think the age of 70 is enough for anyone in terms of politics," he added.
Thaksin's message followed an announcement by key Pheu Thai member Pongsak Raktapongpaisal that he was quitting politics. He made the announcement at his 69th birthday party last Friday, saying at that age, he should quit. "I've been in politics long enough and deserve a rest," he said.
Thaksin was overthrown by a coup while he was overseas in 2006. Two years later, he fled the country before the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions sentenced him to two years in jail for a conflict of interest concerning his ex-wife's purchase of state-owned land in inner Bangkok at a discounted price in 2003. The statute of limitations of the case has already expired.
He was facing additional jail terms in other cases — two years for illegally launching a two- and three-digit lottery scheme over a decade ago and three more for ordering Export-Import Bank of Thailand to lend an additional 1 billion baht to Myanmar below cost for the benefit of his family's Shin Satellite Plc.