The odds are not in favour of Chaturon Chaisang breaking away from the Pheu Thai Party and establishing his own political group, a move which exposes a deep crack in the main opposition party, according to a political scientist.
Mr Chaturon, former chief strategist of the defunct Thai Raksa Chart (TRC) Party, recently confirmed he was leaving Pheu Thai to form a new party.
However, his chances of success may be slim, said Stithorn Thananithichote, director of the Research and Development Office at King Prajadhipok's Institute.
Mr Stithorn said leaving Pheu Thai now when the timing is hardly ripe, with a general election nowhere in sight, makes no political sense.
Yet, Mr Chaturon and several other Pheu Thai members have either contemplated a departure or already exited, Mr Stithorn told the Bangkok Post. It goes to show the party, despite having won the most constituency seats in last year's election, suffers deep internal divisions, he added.
Mr Chaturon, who is a seasoned politician, admitted setting up a new party at this juncture is far from ideal. No issue has presented itself which could spur an impending election.
The academic said Mr Chaturon is not the first prominent politician to consider quitting Pheu Thai.
Phumtham Wechayachai, an adviser to Pheu Thai leader Sompong Amornvivat, has launched the so-called "Care" group consisting of high-calibre politicians.
He said members include the likes of Pongsak Ruktapongpisal, Prommin Lertsuridej and Surapong Suebwonglee, all of whom were executives of the Thai Rak Thai Party, dissolved in 2007 over electoral fraud.
Early this year, Laddawan Wongsriwong stepped down as Pheu Thai deputy leader and opened a new party called "Samerpak" (Equality).
Mr Chaturon, once hailed by Asia Week magazine as one of 20 political luminaries in the region, told the Bangkok Post he has a rough sketch in his head as to how the new party will be fused.
He has discussed the party formation with fellow politicians, business people, former bureaucrats and young political enthusiasts who will have a place in the party think tank.
The party will also expand its outreach in social media to court a new wave of supporters who will be its future torchbearers.
For the time being, Mr Chaturon prefers to keep the names of founders and key supporters and that of the party under wraps.
"But I will tell you this. The stalwarts of the new party will not be the old faces from the Pheu Thai or the [defunct] TRC," said Mr Chaturon. Mr Chaturon served as TRC chief strategist until it met its demise before last year's general election.
The Constitutional Court dissolved the TRC for nominating Princess Ubolratana, elder sister of His Majesty the King, as its prime ministerial candidate.
Mr Chaturon added the new party would not be a melting pot of the "October people" either. He was referring to politicians, academics and students who attended the Oct 14, 1973, mass uprising against the military dictatorship and the Oct 6, 1976, massacre at Thammasat University. "I'm not one among them," Mr Chaturon said.
Although he insisted recruits in his party would not include anyone from Pheu Thai or the TRC, experts reckon his choice of new-face politicians with a bankable chance of winning elections may be limited.
If the Chaturon party had to enlist politicians from Pheu Thai and those formerly attached to the TRC to join his new party, Mr Stithorn warned it would be "a chip off the old block with no selling point to speak of".
Mr Stithorn said he was unsure what Mr Chaturon's party must do to woo supporters, except perhaps capitalising on the popularity of the former glory of Thai Rak Thai policies. The former party, under ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, may still command some strongholds, he added.
Young voters were largely attracted to the Future Forward Party led by billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit before it was disbanded by the Constitutional Court in February. Future Forward has since morphed into the Move Forward Party (MFP).
At the same time, the Chaturon party would struggle competing for votes with Pheu Thai and the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP). While those who remain enchanted by Thaksin-era legacies are Pheu Thai's fiercely-guarded supporters, the PPRP, many of whose MPs were Pheu Thai defectors, has made inroads into many constituencies formerly held by the Pheu Thai, as evident in the previous election.
A number of these key battlefields boiled down to a two-horse race between these major parties last year election, according to Mr Stithorn.
If the Chaturon party wanted to tap into constituencies campaigning on an anti-dictator message, it would be up against the popular MFP and Pheu Thai, both of which have relied on the same issue to attack the government.
Mr Chaturon has positioned himself as a democrat, which will pit him against parties on the same side. "But it will be an uphill battle to take away votes from the MFP and Pheu Thai," Mr Stithorn said.
Chief opposition whip Sutin Klungsang, meanwhile, denied Pheu Thai was splitting apart, instead hinting that key party figures have left or might be leaving because they stand a better chance of winning a list seat in a new party.