'Tony' Thaksin causes a stir

'Tony' Thaksin causes a stir

Former PM stands accused of stirring the political pot with Clubhouse chatroom posts v The Democrats' recent by-election loss to the PPRP in the South sends a clear signal that the party faces an uphill battle if it is to survive

Observers have taken note of self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's appearances in chatrooms and the recent growing presence of red-shirt faithful in the anti-government movement.

Often idolised by supporters as the country's "czar" of communication technology, Mr Thaksin has lived up to the name. He has found a way to connect to his fans back home through real-time chat channels, the latest of which is the audio-based social networking app, Clubhouse.

Thaksin: 'Convenient' appearance

Mr Thaksin fled the country before he was convicted by the Supreme Court of helping his former wife, Khunying Potjaman Na Pombejra, clinch a prime plot of land on Ratchadaphisek Road at a discount in 2003. This happened while he was serving as prime minister.

He may be out of the sight of people in Thailand but is never out of the minds of his zealous supporters. He founded the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT), which was subsequently dissolved over electoral fraud, and was accused of pulling the strings of the People's Power Party (PPP), the reincarnation of the TRT, and predecessor of the Pheu Thai Party.

The PPP met the same fate as the TRT when it was ordered disbanded by the Constitutional Court, also over electoral fraud.

Political comments made by Thaksin in various international forums and publications were labelled by some as disparaging towards the government's performance.

These observers say he has specifically aimed his "lectures" at the government's weakest link -- economic affairs.

But it was not long before Thaksin's name was mentioned fervently in the political context around September last year, when the anti-government movement under "the Khana Ratsadon (People's group) 2020," which had been rechristened from the Free People group, occupied Sanam Luang in its first mass rally held under the Khana Ratsadon banner.

Thaksin was immediately identified with the large turnout in the Khana Ratsadon protest of red-shirt members, affiliated to the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

The UDD, after all, was characterised by critics as the defender of the political parties linked to Thaksin.

Experts, however, have pointed out that the red shirts and the generally younger crowds which formed the Khana Ratsadon may not necessarily have the same goals.

Although both the UDD and Khana Ratsadon, now renamed the Ratsadorn group, called for democracy to be restored, they maintain that not all UDD supporters share the young protesters' stand to "shoot through the roof" with their demand for the monarchy to be reformed.

The red shirts were spotted joining in the protests led by the Ratsadorn and offshoot groups. Towards the end of last year, the anti-government rallies had shown sign of being on the wane as the number of protesters dropped and the protests were few and far between.

The critics agreed the protesters' persistent call for monarchy reform and their increasingly hardline approach to organising rallies may have been what kept some supporters away.

Just as the protests were thought to be losing momentum, Mr Thaksin recently debuted in a Clubhouse chatroom under the pseudonym of Tony Woodsome. Several academics and politicians aligned with the protesters also opened their own chat sessions in the networking app.

They and invited members were engrossed in discussions of subjects that were largely critical of the government.

According to observers, "Tony" arrived on the Clubhouse scene rather conveniently just as the youth-led protest movement was attracting fewer followers. The impression has been created of the former prime minister trying to heighten his appeal to the red shirts so they would help prop up the movement in the name of preserving pro-democratic principles, which would in turn be useful in maintaining the power of the protest.

The red shirts have been spotted among active participants in the protests whose mostly young leaders have been remanded in the court's detention following their indictment on a myriad of charges related to the rallies they led. These include breaching Section 112 of the Criminal Code, more widely known as the lese majeste law.

The court has denied the protest leaders bail out of concern they might repeat the offence and pose a flight risk.

The authorities, meanwhile, have not had much success in reining in the Clubhouse chatrooms, although they have warned of the pros and cons of attending the virtual meetings.

Concerns have grown of users' data privacy possibly being undermined, of leaks, unauthorised wire-tapping, as well as the illegal sales of invitations to the app.


Is the only way up?

The ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) managed to unseat its coalition partner the Democrats in the by-election in Nakhon Si Thammarat's Constituency 3, and those in the know believe this could foreshadow a further tough battle for the country's oldest political party in upcoming by-elections.

The March 7 contest was held to find a replacement for Thepthai Senpong, a Democrat whose MP status was revoked by the Constitutional Court for fraud in a local provincial election back in 2014.

It was a very competitive by-election with both parties mobilising resources to pip one another in the race.

PPRP candidate Ayasit Srisuwan and the Democrats' Pongsin Senpong, a younger brother of Mr Thepthai, were locked in a tight race as the count got under way last Sunday.

It was widely seen as a rematch for Mr Ayasit who lost to Mr Thepthai in the March 2019 poll by less than 5,000 votes.

Ayasit: Wins the 'rematch'

Shortly before 10pm on Sunday, Mr Ayasit emerged victorious with 48,701 votes while his Democrat opponent received 44,632 votes. The two other candidates -- the Kla Party's Sarawut Suwannarat and Seri Ruam Thai's Apirat Rattanapan -- trailed with 6,216 and 2,302 votes respectively.

The PPRP's victory is now official after the Election Commission (EC) endorsed the result earlier this week.

For some political observers, the Democrat Party's defeat in Nakhon Si Thammarat, where Mr Thepthai had served four times, suggests the party's long-held dominance in the southern region may be ebbing and it could be a taste of what's yet to come.

The much-anticipated by-elections in Chumphon and Songkhla in the near future -- to find replacements for two Democrats recently convicted over the 2013-2014 street protests led by the now-defunct People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) -- are high-stake contests for the party.

The EC has asked the Constitutional Court to decide on the status of the two Democrats -- Chumpol Julasai and Thaworn Senneam -- who were sentenced by the Criminal Court to 11 years and five years in prison respectively.

Mr Chumpol represents the Democrats in Chumphon and Mr Thaworn in Songkhla. The conviction has already cost Mr Thaworn his job as deputy transport minister.

While the PPRP has yet to decide if it will contest the polls, political observers believe the ruling party is unlikely to let the opportunity pass it by, after tasting victory in the March 7 by-election.

PPRP executive Itthiphol Kunplome recently pointed out that Mr Ayasit's win motivated the party to turn its focus on the South and try to tap into the region, which has been a Democrat stronghold for decades.

It marks a turbulent period for the Democrats which won less than 100 seats in the 2019 general election. The party failed to retain even a single seat in Bangkok, resulting in arguably its worst ever electoral defeat in the capital.

Such a poor performance also plunged the party into a period of disarray and reports about disunity emerged after the party, with Jurin Laksanawisit at the helm, joined the PPRP-led coalition.

However, several key Democrat figures are said to be looking on the bright side and staying positive despite the poll defeat.

One of them was quoted as saying: "Now that we have hit rock bottom, the only way now is up."

Political observers, while admiring their spirit, insisted that politics is far less predictable than some football teams which enjoy a reversal of fortune after a streak of bad luck.

In their opinion, unless the party reinvents itself to lure back supporters, many of whom were believed to have switched to the PPRP in the last polls, it could find itself on the way out with the door slamming shut behind it for good.

The Democrats will need to work extremely hard to bounce back before the next election comes in two years.

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