The main opposition Pheu Thai Party raised many eyebrows when it declared this week that it was ready to take over the government from the ruling Palang Pracharath Party if Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha caved in to mounting political pressure.
Pheu Thai secretary-general Prasert Janthararuangthong reckoned the coalition government was living on borrowed time. He insisted a crack in the coalition was revealed during the national budget bill debate in parliament last week when some government MPs took to the floor to criticise the trimming of funds, particularly those allocated to the Public Health Ministry to combat Covid-19 transmission.
Political experts agreed that MPs should not go overboard with their criticism of the budget expenditure bill drawn up by the Budget Bureau. The legislation, which passed its first reading and is now on course for second-reading scrutiny, will be modified in terms of budget allocations to the various ministries before it is voted on in the third and final readings.
The experts said the second reading will mark a crucial stage where the spending will be fleshed out and adjusted. Relevant ministries and agencies will be represented during the scrutiny to defend their chunks of the budget.
The deliberations are expected to take weeks to wrap up and the protracted budget affair is one of the elements standing in the way of Pheu Thai's ambition to clear the decks and replace the government.
A source said the government is guaranteed not to disintegrate during this scrutiny of the budget bill since there will be no votes during the period and it is in the best interest of all stakeholders and MPs from both the government and the opposition that the bill clears parliament to kick start the budget for the next fiscal year commencing in October.
The source said the national budget will require about two months to be finalised. But before the legislation is approved lock, stock and barrel, the government has ammunition up its sleeve to fight the opposition and win back public trust over its poor handling of Covid-19.
Set to enter parliament in tandem with the budget bill is the executive decree that grants the government power to borrow 500 billion baht to revitalise the Covid-ravaged economy and financially sustain a host of relief and aid programmes.
The decree could prove potent ammunition for the government to counter the opposition and its critics. There is plenty of money that could translate into handout projects that rein in people's frustrations and anxiety over the intense effects of the pandemic on their livelihoods and public health security.
If by the time the budget bill is enacted, the pandemic stabilises with lower casualties, the government will not waste any time reviving the economy and reversing the worst slump in living memory. If all goes well, the government might be able to see its popularity, gained during the successful battle against Covid-19 during the first and second outbreaks, trickle back, according to the source.
Also, the source said if anyone could read Mr Prasert's mind, they would know he fully recognises that the notion of Gen Prayut either quitting the premiership or calling for the House to be dissolved would be impractical without a charter amendment.
If Gen Prayut steps down, a new prime minister must be chosen by parliament from among the choices of candidates put forth after the March 24, 2019 general election. But the current batch of senators appointed by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order will also take part in voting to elect a new premier.
The odds would likely be stacked against Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate when it comes to getting a vote from the senators.
In the event of a House dissolution triggering a general election, the same rule that was applied in the March 14 polls would also be enforced. In the previous election, Pheu Thai won the most constituency MPs nationwide but garnered zero list MPs. The party blames the complex election system, which has been decried as having been set in stone, for preventing the biggest party that emerges from an election to form a government.
The process of amending the charter is estimated to take several months at the earliest, which could afford the government even more time to score political points from vaccinating people and tackling Covid-19 to send the economy bouncing back after hitting rock bottom.
Election already on way?
For veteran politicians and political insiders, signs are clear that a general election is on the way even though the House of Representatives is only halfway through its four-year term.
Korn: Unlikely to agree to alliance
Many of them speculate that a national poll could take place as early as the latter half of this year in the event that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha dissolves the House between August and September.
This scenario is based on the assumption that the budget bill for the 2022 fiscal year fails to clear its final reading and Gen Prayut opts to dissolve the House instead of stepping down.
Well, it could even come sooner if the executive decree to borrow 500 billion baht to combat the public health crisis is not approved by lawmakers. The decision to dissolve the House is the prerogative of the prime minister.
Speculation about the House dissolution is rife following tensions within the coalition government.
In a recent budget bill debate, several Bhumjaithai Party MPs condemned budget cuts for the Public Health Ministry with senior party figure Chada Thaiseth calling for party leader and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to pull out of the government.
Due to political uncertainty, major political parties such as Palang Pracharath (PPRP), Pheu Thai, the Bhumjaithai and the Democrat Party are not taking any chances.
According to political insiders, these parties have begun to search and select their election candidates to compete in the next poll in earnest. Current and former MPs have been spotted visiting people in their constituencies.
However, the political landscape has changed significantly over the past year with three new parties emerging -- the Kla Party led by Korn Chatikavanij, Thai Srang Thai" (Nation Building Party) led by Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, and the other formed by high-profile politicians in the so-called See Gumarn (Four Boys) group.
The "Four Boys" group comprises former finance minister Uttama Savanayana, former energy minister Sontirat Sontijirawong, former higher education, science and innovations minister Suvit Maesincee and Kobsak Pootrakul, former deputy secretary-general of the prime minister.
The quartet, who left the ruling PPRP in late June last year after they were ousted from the executive board at the party's general assembly, has reportedly formed a new party with support from Somkid Jatusripitak, former deputy prime minister who commands respect from the group.
Reports are coming in that Mr Somkid has been in talks with the Kla Party leader and Sang Thai Party about the possibility of them forging an alliance or even merging to contest the elections.
However, Mr Korn is unlikely to cosy up to the idea despite his party having its first taste of election defeat early this year when it fielded Sarawut Suwannarat to contest the by-election in Nakhon Si Thammarat.
According to political observers, the Kla Party has also been quietly building support during the Covid-19 pandemic by reaching out to people affected by the public health crisis.
As for the Sang Thai Party, political insiders also find it highly unlikely that Khunying Sudarat would merge her party with the two others. The former chief strategist of the opposition Pheu Thai has her own political ambition to fulfil.
According to political observers, the departure of Khunying Sudarat from Pheu Thai signifies that the veteran politician wants to position herself as a leading contender for the prime ministerial post.
In terms of popular support, grassroots people are more familiar with Khunying Sudarat than Mr Korn and the Four Boys group, the observers said.
And while it seems Khunying Sudarat is now alone in her campaign to consolidate support, her allies will turn up in force when the time is ripe. Expected to stand by her side are Pokin Polakul, Watana Muangsook and Pongsakorn Annanopporn, the seasoned bigwigs who quit Pheu Thai along with her.