Poll suspense in the air

Poll suspense in the air

ABOUT POLITICS: Pheu Thai warned it may face a 'bleed' of MPs to the PPRP in the run-up to the next election following defection of one leading member v Ruling party's charter change draft avoids crossing members of Upper House who won't be around much longer

(From left) Ruangkrai: First of many defections?; Seree: Backs the status quo
(From left) Ruangkrai: First of many defections?; Seree: Backs the status quo

An air of uncertainty pervades in the marble hall in parliament where lawmakers are betting on the chances of an early election later this year or in early 2022.

An election, if held in the months ahead, would see the government risking its neck despite having two more years left in office.

Some MPs have reportedly planned regular visits to their constituencies. But before that, they must first decide whether to stay loyal to the parties they are currently in or defect.

A political analyst has warned that the main opposition Pheu Thai Party could bleed MPs as several could be contemplating crossing the floor and joining the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP).

One already has. This defector was Ruangkrai Leekitwattana, a Pheu Thai list MP, who uprooted himself from the opposition party and called the PPRP his new home in the aftermath of the latest budget bill debate.

The analyst noted neither Pheu Thai nor the PPRP was faring any better than each other when it came to popularity at present.

The PPRP has suffered a huge political setback from the government's miscalculation of the extent of the latest deadly Covid-19 outbreak that struck the country in early April and has seen double-digit deaths and more than 2,000 daily infections since.

The government has also been slated by critics for putting out sometimes conflicting information about vaccine distribution, which has fuelled fearmongering by people bent on discouraging others from being inoculated, which could hinder the state's goal of achieving herd immunity before the year is out.

The opposition party, meanwhile, is also going through a rough patch despite former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra hosting frequent political talks critical of the government and drumming up support for Pheu Thai via Clubhouse, the audio-based social networking app. Thaksin rules the Clubhouse stage using his alias -- Tony Woodsome.

Thaksin, according to the analyst, is showcasing what his supporters consider is his finesse in economics and policy formulation with the apparent aim of upstaging the government and appealing to younger voters at the same time.

Any success in wooing the young voters could rub off on Pheu Thai, a reincarnation of the People's Power Party that traces its origins back to the Thai Rak Thai Party Thaksin founded. Both parties were dissolved over electoral fraud.

While Pheu Thai is hoping to cash in on the PPRP's falling political credit in anticipation of an election in the not-too-distant future, the ruling party has welcomed Mr Ruangkrai into its ranks.

It is reported that many more Pheu Thai politicians are also expected to come knocking on the PPRP's door and apply for membership. If there is any truth to this, Pheu Thai could be in for an uphill election battle.

Some defectors might include established MPs with strong support in their constituencies almost guaranteeing their re-election.

Any defections could also serve as an indicator to some politicians, even those firmly rooted in the rival camp, that the PPRP must have a few aces up its sleeve if it is prepared to fight an early election.

Leading the way for the potential defectors was Mr Ruangkrai who has his work cut out as a newly inducted PPRP politician. The PPRP will most likely exploit Mr Ruangkrai's forte -- his skill in scrutiny -- to its advantage.

After all, it is Mr Ruangkrai who filed a case with the Constitutional Court in 2008, accusing the late Samak Sundaravej, the then prime minister, of having a conflict of interest when he hosted a TV cooking show.

The court ruled in Mr Ruangkrai's favour and removed Samak from office in September that year.

Mr Ruangkrai's crusade has since earned him the title "Jack the Giant Slayer".

He is reported to harbour pent-up resentment towards Pheu Thai for failing to nominate him to sit on the House committee scrutinising the national budget bill last year.

This year, he has been offered a seat on the very same House committee, although this time around he gained entry under the PPRP's banner.

His depth of knowledge in budgetary and parliamentary affairs may come in very handy for the ruling party as Mr Ruangkrai is expected to be able to deflect criticism from the opposition on matters related to the national budget.

This could make the work of the government less troublesome in heading off a major revision of the crucial budget bill being planned by the opposition.

The legislation is expected to take several weeks to pass, a timeline that ensures the government will remain in office a while longer. In the meantime, Mr Ruangkrai has got down to business turning against Pheu Thai.

He has petitioned against opposition leader Sompong Amornvivat, who also heads Pheu Thai, over a number of undeclared assets.

Future attacks on Pheu Thai members by their former colleague could be damaging to the main opposition party and set back its efforts to win political points ahead of an anticipated early election.


Senators sitting pretty

Among charter rewrite proposals pending scrutiny by the joint sitting of MPs and senators, only one appears to have the votes needed to pass, according to political observers.

The amendment draft in question is sponsored by the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and it can count on overwhelming support from the 250-member Senate.

When it comes to charter amendment, the Senate is in a commanding position thanks to a provision that says at least half of the combined votes from both chambers are needed to pass a motion in the first reading, and this must include at least one-third or 84 of the 250 senators.

While the proposals submitted by three coalition partners -- Bhumjaithai, Democrat and Chartthaipattana parties -- and the opposition bloc all seek to "switch off the Senate" by removing its power to vote with elected MPs for a new prime minister, the PPRP's draft simply leaves the issue untouched.

PPRP deputy leader and list MP Paiboon Nititawan, who initiated the party's charter amendment motion, admitted the draft goes for uncontroversial amendments to avoid crossing the senators who will not be around for long.

He voiced confidence that the party's charter amendment draft, which is up for a review by the joint session during June 22-24, will be approved by the Senate because it suits the senators.

"We've left them alone because they have less than three years in office. I've high confidence the bill will be passed because it triggers no conflicts and requires no public referendum," he said.

Senator Seree Suwanpanont agreed that the PPRP-sponsored charter amendment proposal is more politically feasible than others being floated by coalition partners and the opposition camp.

He points out the Senate's tenure is just five years and its existence is necessary during the transition period to resolve the political crisis and mitigate political turbulence caused by street protests.

"Why worry? We'll be gone in less than three years. And as a matter of fact, if the government and the prime minister don't have adequate support in parliament, they can't get their work done. The Senate can't help at all," he said.

Critics of the government and even its allies do not see eye to eye with Mr Paiboon and Mr Seree; otherwise, they would not have come with proposals pressing for an amendment to Section 272 to keep the Senate from joining MPs in electing a prime minister.

The Bhumjaithai, Democrat and Chartthaipattana parties along with the opposition bloc have filed 14 drafts between them seeking to rectify multiple sections in the constitution.

Between them, they have outlined many different key areas which they feel should be modified. However, they stand united in seeking to strip the Senate of its power to take part in co-voting for the prime minister.

Sutin Klungsang, chief opposition whip and Pheu Thai MP for Maha Sarakham, admitted that it is difficult to push for amendment drafts aimed at curbing the Senate's powers and the party is aiming for the national referendum bill.

The bill, which is expected to be deliberated by the joint sitting on June 22, is essential to the party's attempt to rewrite Section 256 to allow for the setting up of a charter-drafting assembly (CDA) to write a new charter.

An attempt to introduce sweeping changes to fundamental parts of the charter is tantamount to rewriting the whole constitution which would necessitate holding a referendum before and after changes are effected.

"As soon as the referendum bill takes effect, we'll push for a referendum asking whether the people want to have the 2017 charter abolished and a new one written or not," Mr Sutin said.

According to Mr Sutin, the Senate will have no choice but to comply with the majority of public opinion and, in his view, that is the way to go for a wholesale charter rewrite.

Due to the Constitutional Court's ruling earlier, any attempt to revise Section 256 to pave the way for the establishment of the CDA involves replacing the current charter and therefore it needs to be decided at a referendum.

One of the opposition bloc's drafts seeks to rewrite Section 256 which involves replacing the current charter.

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