The plot thickens with a "split" strategy possibly being employed by the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) to stay on top of the game, according to experts.
The ruling party has been threatened with the prospect of being relegated from one of the two biggest parties to a medium-sized one after the next election. Political insiders agree it has lost much of the allure it had before the last one.
Back in 2019, it attracted many politicians from other parties, including from its rival the Pheu Thai Party, as the chances of being elected were more promising. The PPRP was in its political prime, ready to do battle alongside Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who had just stepped down as leader of the coup-engineering National Council for Peace and Order, as its commander.
Now the party faces a reversal of fortunes, which calls for a tactical review. Several political scientists are in agreement that the PPRP is in urgent need of self-reinvention amid a continuing decline brought on by the expulsion of 21 MPs belonging to the faction controlled by Capt Thamanat Prompow, the former PPRP secretary-general, and the runaway cost of living.
The experts believe the party has been under pressure both from within and externally while the government has no achievements to speak of, which could have at least enabled it to weather the political storm better.
According to the experts, the PPRP cannot let its fortunes slide further. Desperate times calls for desperate measures and the oldest tactic in the book is being called upon.
In addition to the large void left in the PPRP by the purging of the 21 MPs, Seksakol Atthawong, an assistant minister attached to the Prime Minister's Office, earlier turned his back on the ruling party. He tendered his resignation and jumped ship to the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party.
He suggested he was not being fully "utilised" by the PPRP and would rather move to greener pastures. However, his PPRP exit should not be construed that he has severed ties with Gen Prayut. In fact, Ruam Thai Sang Chart stands firm on its commitment to support Gen Prayut's return as prime minister after the next election, which could be called sometime this year if the House is dissolved or after March next year when the government's tenure expires.
Mr Saksakol added the name Ruam Thai Sang Chart (Uniting Thais to Build the Nation) was coined by Gen Prayut as a catchphrase for inspiring patriotism and national solidarity.
A source said Ruam Thai Sang Chart might be a spare-part party for Gen Prayut should the PPRP cease to exist. A Move Forward Party member has petitioned the political parties' registrar seeking to invalidate the PPRP's registration as a party, citing it having among its founders someone with a criminal conviction. The member insisted this provides sufficient grounds for disbanding the party.
The person in question is Sira Jenjaka who was disqualified as MP last year by the Constitutional Court. It ruled him ineligible to contest the 2019 election due to a fraud conviction handed down by the Pathumwan District Court in 1995 along with an eight-month jail term.
In addition to Ruam Thai Sang Chart, PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon said the 21 expelled MPs who have moved to the Setthakij Thai Party gave him their word they would stay loyal to Gen Prayut, despite having been booted out of the ruling party for threatening to cause trouble if the party did not restructure.
The source said Ruam Thai Sang Chart and Setthakij Thai may be pawns in a power game as some politicians who left or are leaving the PPRP for small parties do have a chance of getting elected or re-elected. After the election, if they are given sufficient "incentive", they could regroup and set up a coalition government composed of a party lineup similar to the existing one.
However, some observers said for that to work, the current coalition, including strategic partners like Bhumjaithai and the Democrats, will need to win as many if not more seats than in the 2019 election.
The alliance must produce a sufficient majority to beat the other bloc made up of the Pheu Thai and the Move Forward parties.
There will be a lot riding on Ruam Thai Sang Chart and Setthakij Thai garnering enough seats to make up for a loss of MPs the PPRP is expected to suffer in the next polls.
But more importantly, the current coalition must be willing to go along with Gen Prayut returning as premier. Bhumjaithai and the Democrats do not always see eye to eye with the PPRP and they might ponder supporting others as their prime ministerial candidates.
In need of good allies
The mid-sized Bhumjaithai Party was seen as a key factor in the formation of the Palang Pracharath-led (PPRP) coalition and keeping Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha in power following the 2019 general election.
Anutin: Assures PM of support
Three years later the coalition party has grown stronger and become the most pivotal to the prime minister's chances of serving out his four-year tenure ending in March next year, according to observers.
Back in 2019, the PPRP, which was then led by Uttama Savanayana, gathered 137 MPs while the Pheu Thai-led alliance had 245. The combined number of 103 MPs from other parties would tip the scales of power in favour of the PPRP-led alliance.
The pro-regime PPRP took about two months to win over the Bhumjaithai and Democrat parties to ensure a PPRP-led coalition materialised. At that time the Bhumjaithai Party was the third-largest party in the coalition with 51 lawmakers.
Presently, it is the second largest with 59 MPs under its wing and the number looks set to increase following reports that three of the 21 MPs expelled from the ruling PPRP have decided to join the party instead of moving to Setthakij Thai with the rest.
With its political clout growing and the PPRP weakening, observers believe that Gen Prayut will have to rely on support from the Bhumjaithai if he is to fulfil his wish of completing his term.
Given media reports surrounding Gen Prayut's behind-closed-door meeting on Feb 11 with Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, the prime minister may have found himself someone he can count on.
During the discussion, the premier reportedly expressed concern that he did not have many options left in the face of the current political situation.
Mr Anutin was quick to give assurance that Gen Prayut would be able to serve out his tenure and that he would see to it that at least 260 MPs would vote in support of the PM in any future no-confidence motions. The Bhumjaithai leader also produced a list of MPs who had promised to rally behind the prime minister.
"Don't worry about MP numbers. If there is a no-confidence debate, the opposition will gather less than half of the numbers required and the support for the prime minister will be no less than 260 MPs," a source quoted Mr Anutin as saying.
Later in a media interview, even though Mr Anutin declined to discuss the number of MPs under the coalition's control, he confirmed he gave reassurances to Gen Prayut. "I didn't tell the prime minister that we had 260 votes. I assured him that we have plenty," he said.
Observers say they have no doubt the Bhumjaithai leader can claim the coalition government has 260 MPs in its pocket, given the number of votes Mr Anutin and Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob received in last September's no-confidence motion.
Mr Anutin, who is a deputy prime minister and the public health minister, and Mr Saksayam, who is the Bhumjaithai secretary-general, each received 269 votes of confidence, the highest among ministers targeted in that censure debate.
Currently, there are 473 MPs with 265 aligned to the government and 208 in the opposition camp.
Despite the wide number gap, the coalition lacks unity and the 18 MPs led by former PPRP secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow and 14 MPs from minnow parties are considered "swing voters", according to observers.
A recent vote on a bill seeking to liberalise liquor production and allow small-scale producers to enter the market suggests that Capt Thamanat's group could break ranks even though PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon reaffirmed the Thamanat faction is on the government's side.
Before the vote, the government whips agreed to send the bill to the cabinet before it was returned to the House for a vote on whether to admit it at its first reading.
The government won the vote with a slim margin -- 207 against 196 with two abstentions and three no votes -- because some government MPs and 14 MPs in the Thamanat faction voted with the opposition.
With Gen Prayut setting his sights on hosting the Apec summit in November, it should not be a surprise to see him engage more with politicians to make sure the government hangs on until he completes the mission, according to political observers.