The hardest and possibly the most painful thing fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra can stomach is that he may be providing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha with what he needs to return to power after the next polls.
Thaksin: Homecoming a prickly issue
Red-shirt co-leader Jatuporn Prompan has repeatedly warned Thaksin not to create a pre-condition that would politically weaken the main opposition Pheu Thai Party, causing it to miss out on its ultimate goal of scoring a landslide win and sweeping to power.
This would be Thaksin returning to Thailand from self-imposed exile without serving a long-overdue prison term. Thaksin fled the country in 2008 before he was convicted by the Supreme Court of assisting his wife, while prime minister, in the purchase of prime land in Bangkok at a discount.
Mr Jatuporn has indicated in his regular satellite TV talk programme the homecoming would be the worst-possible subject to bring up for Pheu Thai when the country is fast approaching the next poll on May 7.
The issue would be portrayed as a self-interest move, which would drum up growing resistance against Pheu Thai with which Thaksin is known to retain a close and longstanding association. However, Thaksin has strongly denied he pulls the party's strings, as accused by his opponents.
Against Mr Jatuporn's advice, Thaksin told one of his regular chat sessions in the Clubhouse audio-based social networking app that if he were to return, he would find his own way back and not rely on Pheu Thai or the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) for help in that regard.
Now is the most inopportune time to raise the homecoming issue, even in jest, according to an observer.
The issue is as politically sensitive as it is potentially explosive as it would revive the anti-Thaksin movement. This saw hundreds of thousands of people pour into the streets in late 2013 and early 2014 in protest against the Pheu Thai-led government's push to have a law enacted to give amnesty to political offenders and those facing corruption charges.
The graft element was added allegedly to secure a prison-free passage home for Thaksin, who was already in exile.
According to the observer, Thaksin's homecoming plan continues to be a prickly issue that hurts Pheu Thai whenever it is spoken about or an attempt by the party, or anyone connected to it, to act on it.
The observer said there was no escaping the fact that Pheu Thai was perceptive to the hyper-sensitivity surrounding the homecoming issue. It was therefore baffling to many political watchers that Thaksin had chosen to talk about coming home at a time when Pheu Thai appeared to be making strides towards its electoral goal.
Until recently, Pheu Thai had been seen in some opinion polls as the favourite to win the next election. That came at the expense of the government and Gen Prayut, whose popularity had been lagging behind that of Paetongtarn "Ung Ing" Shinawatra, Thaksin's youngest daughter and the party's chief adviser on public participation and innovation.
Pheu Thai has pushed a pre-election campaign attacking the government for taking the country backwards and doing a disservice to democracy during its eight years in office. Most attacks were aimed at Gen Prayut, whose administration the main opposition party said was not winning any public sympathy or new supporters for putting the country in a rut.
Gen Prayut was also struggling to chart his own political future as he took a long pause before deciding to part ways with the ruling PPRP and switch to the newly formed United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.
Critics expressed doubts whether Gen Prayut can survive in politics, let alone thrive, without the back-room help of the PPRP's well-oiled political machinery led by Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon -- who many reckoned was bound by the unbreakable fraternal ties with Gen Prayut -- at his disposal.
As the UTN's fate is intricately tied to Gen Prayut, some critics predicted it might not even scrape through the next poll with the minimum 25 MPs needed for a party to be able to nominate a prime minister in parliament. Gen Prayut is certain to be the UTN's only prime ministerial choice.
Just when the odds were stacking up against Gen Prayut and the UTN, the homecoming gaffe was dropped by Thaksin.
This resulted in red-shirt groups, spooked by Mr Jatuporn's remarks about Thaksin deceiving and using them to further his political agenda and that of Pheu Thai for years, declaring they have removed their 'red shirts' and switched allegiance to Pheu Thai's rivals like the Bhumjaithai Party which is expected quickly gain ground on Pheu Thai and even the UTN.
The PPRP also stand to lose from the rumoured secret deal between it and Pheu Thai, which is thought to pave the way for Thaksin's homecoming.
The deal reportedly involves the two parties forming a government after the next poll in the event of Pheu Thai failing to clinch a landslide victory and needing a coalition partner.
PPRP supporters, who dread the prospect of Thaksin returning and dodging a jail term under a Pheu Thai-led government, would likely vote for the next best option, the UTN.
In this case, the PPRP's loss would be the UTN's gain. The UTN would then see its election prospects strengthened substantially, thanks to the PPRP but also Thaksin, according to the observer.
All to play for down South
Nakhon Si Thammarat is poised to host one of the most competitive elections in the southern region, according to political observers.
With nine House seats up for grabs in the upcoming general election on May 7, the southern province has drawn interest from several parties seeking to stretch their MP targets, including the United Thai Nation Party (UTN).
Prayut: Goes vote-hunting in the South
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, now the UTN's chief strategist, led a delegation to inspect government development projects there early this week.
It was Gen Prayut's seventh visit to the province since he became premier, according to provincial governor Apinant Phuekphong. The prime minister told the people who welcomed him that he attached importance to Nakhon Si Thammarat and that tackling falling crop prices remained a government priority.
He was accompanied by Interior Minister Anupong Paojinda and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, the prime minister's secretary-general and the UTN leader. Spotted among the welcoming committee were potential UTN election candidates.
Given Gen Prayut's remarks and the number of House seats at stake, observers see Nakhon Si Thammarat as one of the hottest races and believe Gen Prayut will pull out all the stops to see that the UTN claims the lion's share of seats available, if not a clean sweep.
However, the premier and his newly established party will find themselves up against two strong contenders, according to analysts.
The Democrat Party, which captured five out of eight seats available in 2019, is the most formidable. Nakhon Si Thammarat is considered one of the party's strongest bastions in the region, and the Democrats will be ready to defend their turf.
The other is the main opposition Pheu Thai Party whose election campaign is spearheaded by Paetongtarn "Ung Ing" Shinawatra, its chief adviser on public participation and innovation.
Pheu Thai launched a pre-election campaign in the province in December last year when Ms Paetongtarn pledged to tackle low rubber prices, fix problems in the fishing sector and expedite upgrades on rail routes linking China, Thailand and Singapore.
Some observers say Pheu Thai has a strong chance in the election, and it may win in this southern province for the first time.
According to the latest opinion survey released by the National Institute of Development Administration, or Nida Poll, Pheu Thai's popularity in Nakhon Si Thammarat is 22.44%, marginally more than the Democrats at 21.68%.
The approval rating is based on the question: "Which political party do respondents favour in the party-list system?" Gen Prayut's UTN registered 20.69%, while the MFP got 10%.
In terms of the constituency system, the Democrats, however, were top with 22.29%, followed by Pheu Thai at 21.68%, UTN at 21.22% and the Move Forward Party (MFP) at 9.16%. The poll was conducted from Feb 3-8 among 1,310 eligible voters in the southern province.
According to observers, winning is no longer a sure thing for the Democrats, and the next polls will be a litmus test of its electioneering strength.
Urban voters who are mainly businesspeople, office workers and labourers, are paying more interest to the Democrat Party's arch-rival, Pheu Thai, because it has policies to boost their incomes. Young voters, on the other hand, are aligning themselves with progressive parties like the MFP.
"Parties seem to have their own support bases, so those who have resources and strong organised support groups stand a chance. The Democrats can retain their seats, but it may lose a few to Pheu Thai and the UTN," said Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at Nida.
As for the UTN, Mr Phichai doubts that Gen Prayut can transform his personal popularity into votes for the party, which has so far come up with no policies to attract wider voters.
In the same opinion poll by Nida, Gen Prayut emerges as a top choice for prime minister with 29.08% support among Nakhon Si Thammarat voters, followed by Ms Paetongtarn (21.07%). About 10.53% found no one suitable, while MFP's Pita Limjaroenrat came fourth with 8.93%.
"Apparently, the UTN has no strategy to boost the party's ratings. It is riding on Gen Prayut's popularity alone. If it doesn't manage and doesn't have canvassers to help, its campaign can't flourish in the South," said Mr Phichai.
However, some observers point out that if the Nida Poll results are anything to go by, the UTN has nothing to worry about regarding the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), which won the three other House seats in this southern province in the previous polls.
The PPRP, under the leadership of Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, was ranked ninth for both questions, trailing behind the undecided voters, the Bhumjaithai Party, the Seriruamthai Party and the Chartpattanakla Party. Gen Prawit was in 11th place for the prime minister post with 1.07% support.