Voting ended in Thailand’s national elections with a mix of pre- and post-election surveys showing pro-democracy parties leading in their efforts to replace a military-backed government that first took power in 2014.
A pre-election poll by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) showed the Pheu Thai party winning between 164 and 172 seats, the most of any party. The liberal Move Forward party came in second with between 80 and 88 seats, according to the Nida poll.
While it’s still too soon to read into the results, they indicate that no one party would secure a majority of the 500 lower house seats up for grabs. The Nida survey also showed the centrist Bhumjaithai party – which emerged as a king-maker in the 2019 election – taking anywhere between 72 and 80 seats. The ruling military-backed Palang Pracharath party will get between 53 and 61 seats, the survey said.
The Election Commission is expected to start releasing a partial count of ballots at 6.30pm.
A separate exit poll by Nation Group showed the Pheu Thai party, linked to influential former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, garnering 32.6% of the constituency vote, while Move Forward had 29.4%, together giving them a slim majority if those results hold. Nation Group’s poll also shows similar results for the party-list votes.
This early, opposition leaders are confident they can tip the scale and wrest power from the military-backed coalition.
“Based on the numbers we’re seeing, Pheu Thai and Move Forward and other opposition parties can form a coalition government,” Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat said in a briefing after polls closed, clarifying that no coalition talks are happening yet. “The current opposition parties are the right answer for the people. We’ll stick to that message. There’s no need to include others.”
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter and Pheu Thai’s front-runner for prime minister, urged supporters to be patient and wait for the results. “I still have very high confidence in our victory,” she told reporters.
The Election Commission secretary-general told reporters earlier in the day that voting was proceeding smoothly, signalling no significant irregularities. Approximately 52 million Thais were eligible to vote, and more than 90% of about 2.3 million people who registered for early polling did so last week.
Even a landslide win for pro-democracy parties won’t guarantee a clear path to power: under a constitution promulgated in 2017, the 250 military-appointed senators get to vote alongside the 500 elected lower house members to decide on the next prime minister.
In addition, some of the top parties had multiple candidates for the job. The Election Commission may take up to two months to confirm the members of the lower house, according to the electoral rules. The joint houses will then convene to pick the country’s next leader.
A third survey by university Suan Dusit, taken before voting began, showed Pheu Thai winning as many as 246 seats, followed by Move Forward at 106.
Voters cast two ballots, one in the first-past-the-post race and the other for proportional party representation.