Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the new government could be in trouble if they allow themselves to be controlled by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, according to political observers.
Jade Donavanik, a legal scholar and president of the College of Asian Scholars's faculty of law, told the Bangkok Post that Thaksin's attempts to micro-manage the government will only backfire on the new prime minister and his daughter, Ms Paetongtarn.
"The more he is trying to speak in public and act as if he is the manager of the government, the more resistance he will face [from opponents].
"In particular, Ms Paetongtarn could be in trouble if Pheu Thai, of which she is the leader, allows itself to be controlled and influenced by Thaksin," Mr Jade said.
The warning comes after Thaksin spoke at an event called "Vision for Thailand 2024" on Thursday, attended by politicians, diplomats and investors.
According to observers, Thaksin's remarks during the event underscored the belief that he remains the real boss behind the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the new government.
Some argued Thaksin's speech on Thursday night was nothing more than an abridged version of the policy statement that the Paetongtarn government will soon deliver in parliament.
"It would be best if Thaksin acts behind the scenes quietly to deal with coalition allies instead of speaking in public or dictating to others," Mr Jade said.
"If evidence emerges of him trying to exert influence, the ruling party could find itself in hot water," Mr Jade said, referring to the Political Parties Act, which prohibits a party from consenting to influence by an outsider, an offence that may lead to party dissolution.
Section 28 prohibits a party from letting an outsider control, influence or guide its activities, in a way that affects the independence of the party and its members.
Section 29 bars non-party members from dominating, influencing or directing party affairs, both directly and indirectly, to limit party members' freedom.
Section 108 stipulates punishments against the offender in Section 29, with a jail term of between five to 10 years and/or a fine of between 100,000 and 200,000 baht. The offender will also lose his or her right to run in elections.
"Thaksin is the main factor. It would be best if he kept quiet. But it may be hard for him to do so," Mr Jade said.
Jade: 'Best if he kept quiet'
Growing pressure
Mr Jade said Ms Paetongtarn must also clear herself over some issues, including the purchase of a controversial monastic plot, which houses the Alpine Golf Club and a residential complex.
The land in Pathum Thani's Klong Luang district was donated by a widow, Noem Chamnanchartsakda, to Wat Dhammamikaramvoraviharn in Prachuap Khiri Khan back in 1971.
After her death, the Mahamongkut Ratchawittayalai Foundation, which was appointed as the executor of her estate, sold the land to Alpine Real Estate and Alpine Golf and Sports Club, of which Ms Paetongtarn is a shareholder.
The Central Criminal Court for Corruption and Misconduct Cases ruled in 2017 that former Pheu Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit abused his power by allowing the sale of monastic land to make way for the Alpine Golf Club while serving as acting permanent secretary for the interior in 2002.
In 2019, the Appeal Court upheld a two-year prison sentence handed down by the lower court. In 2020, the Appeal Court denied Yongyuth's request to appeal the ruling.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), which investigated the sale, found Yongyuth at fault for cancelling a Land Department order that revoked the sale of the 732-rai monastic land to Alpine Real Estate Co.
The Council of State deemed the sale illegal because it was monastic land, forcing land officials to cancel the deal.
Chao Meekhuad, a former deputy spokesman for the opposition Democrat Party, previously said Ms Paetongtarn should return the land to the temple to avoid any legal wrangling that could endanger her premiership.
Mr Jade added that he believed that these issues would pile pressure on Ms Paetongtarn, forcing her to dissolve the House as a solution.
He also said any attempts to include lese majeste on the list of offences that would be pardoned under a political amnesty bill could also snowball into another major problem for the government, given that Thaksin still faces a Section 112 case regarding an interview he gave foreign media in 2016.
However, the Criminal Court's witness hearing in the lese majeste case against Thaksin was adjourned until July next year.
The case concerns comments he made during an interview with the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo on May 21, 2015.
In the interview, he claimed privy councillors supported the 2014 coup that ousted the government of his younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
The interview was posted online, so he was also charged with computer crime in addition to lese majeste under Section 112 of the Criminal Code.
Subject to scrutiny
Nipit Intarasombat, a former Democrat MP, told the Bangkok Post that Ms Paetongtarn must tread carefully to avoid suffering the same fate as ex-PM Srettha Thavisin, who was dismissed from office by the Constitutional Court on Aug 14 over an ethics violation for appointing ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a PM's Office minister.
"The court's ruling has set a standard, and political office-holders must be careful," Mr Nipit said.
He added that from now on, the new prime minister will be scrutinised vigorously considering she has no experience in running national affairs, while any failure to address economic woes could also ratchet up pressure on the new government.
The new government could also face potential legal risks if it insists on proceeding with the digital wallet handout scheme, which is the flagship policy of Pheu Thai, Mr Nipit said, referring to a warning from the NACC about a range of potential pitfalls tied to the scheme, from graft to legal concerns.
Mr Nipit echoed the view that Thaksin should keep a low profile and stop bossing the new government around.
"Thaksin's opponents will be unhappy and ready to take to the streets to protest if Thaksin exerts too much explicit influence over the government. Things could worsen if the government fails to address economic problems," he said.
He added the new government may not complete its term as Ms Paetongtarn could also suffer the same fate as Mr Srettha if she appoints Capt Thamanat Prompow as a cabinet minister in the new administration, given his questionable eligibility.
Nipit: Opponents ready to rally
The Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), a coalition partner, has nominated the same four MPs in the last government, including Capt Thamanat, to serve as ministers in the new Pheu Thai-led cabinet.
It said if the ruling party deems any of the four to be ineligible, the PPRP said it will find a replacement later.
According to observers, Capt Thamanat, who served as caretaker Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister in the previous government, may be unfit to hold a cabinet post given his conviction and incarceration for a drug-related offence in Australia in the 1990s.
Virot Ali, a lecturer at Thammasat University's faculty of political science, said he believes the new government will be able to cope with the country's problems, though all eyes are on whether the digital wallet handout scheme will be adjusted.
"People have been concerned about the economy. They are keeping an eye on any change in the government's policy," he said
However, Ms Paetongtarn previously said the scheme is likely to proceed.
First, funds will be distributed in cash to vulnerable people via the welfare card.
The scheme, which aims to distribute 10,000 baht via a digital wallet to about 50 million eligible Thais, hangs in the balance following the Constitutional Court's dismissal of Mr Srettha.
Mr Virot echoed the view that Thaksin's attempts to wield control over the new prime minister could backfire.
"Criticism cannot be avoided. Now that Ms Paetongtarn [is] prime minister, Thaksin must try to do everything he can to support her," he said.
"But he also has to make sure he does not overshadow Ms Paetongtarn's role," Mr Virot said.
Virot: All eyes on digital wallet
