The release on parole of former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom, who was convicted of corruption in the rice-pledging scheme, has heightened speculation about a possible return of fugitive former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
After serving more than six years in jail, Boonsong, 64, was released by the Department of Corrections (DoC) on Monday. His 48-year jail term was reduced multiple times, bringing it down to 10 years.
With his release scheduled for April 21, 2028, Boonsong will be on parole probation for another three years and five months, during which time he will probably wear an electronic tag.
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, said preparations have been made for Yingluck's return, and Boonsong's release will likely benefit the former premier the most.
He pointed to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's interview about his sister's return, expected next April or slightly earlier, and the DoC's new regulation allowing detention outside prison.
Boonsong: Jailed for over six years
Under the new regulation, prisoners allowed to be detained outside prison must meet certain requirements stipulated by the DOC and be categorised by a screening panel set up by the department.
"The timeline has been acknowledged, but there is a deliberate intent to turn this issue into news. Thaksin's media interview about her return signals that the information is released in a structured manner to gauge public opinion," he said.
In an interview with Nikkei Asia last month, Thaksin said he expected Yingluck to return, possibly during or before the Songkran festival in April, depending on timing and opportunities.
Yingluck, 57, has been a fugitive since August 2017, when she failed to appear before the Supreme Court's Criminal Case Division for Holders of Political Positions for the reading of the court ruling on a charge of dereliction of duty in a rice-pledging programme that ran up at least 500 billion baht in losses.
Boonsong's ruling was handed down hours after Yingluck's no-show at the Supreme Court. In her absence, she was sentenced to five years in prison for failing to stop corruption in the programme.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University in Chon Buri, said the timing to bring Yingluck home could not be better given Thaskin's political influence.
He also said he believes that preparations are ongoing to ensure that Yingluck will not have to spend a day in prison, similar to what Thaksin did.
Talk about Yingluck's return made the rounds in March this year following the Supreme Court's failure to uphold the malfeasance and collusion case involving her government's 2-trillion-baht infrastructure projects.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) decided not to appeal the ruling. The NACC's probes into cases stemming from her tenure have also been terminated, intensifying speculation she is closer to returning home.
Meanwhile, Dejnatwit Teriyapirom, Boonsong's son, told the media that he was alarmed that his father's release gained media attention because the other inmates had also been released. He said his father, who had lost 10 kg, would undergo surgery to treat cervical pain.
Sahakarn Phetnarin, director-general of DoC, said Boonsong was granted temporary release on probation after serving at least two-thirds of his sentence.
He said he did not have full details of the release process, which the prison handled. Once the prison is informed of the committee's decision, Boonsong can be released without court approval, with the Department of Probation (DoP) in charge of his supervision.
Suriya Singhakamol, director-general of the DoP, said that not every inmate on parole must wear an EM bracelet, which is determined by the committee reviewing the release.