
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's rise to power is relatively premature considering her age and political experience. However, her nomination as one of the Pheu Thai Party's three prime ministerial candidates suggested she was ready to take on the role.
The growing popularity of the People's Party (PP) played a significant role in the party's decision to support her as prime minister following the removal of Srettha Thavisin by a court ruling in August last year.
Under current political circumstances, this is a critical opportunity for Pheu Thai to show its leadership skills as future opportunities to do so could be limited. Ms Paetongtarn also is the party's most viable candidate, with the backing of her father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Since taking office, Ms Paetongtarn has unveiled a policy agenda focused on creating opportunities and achieving various goals.
Many of the Paetongtarn cabinet's initiatives draw on policies from the Srettha cabinet and earlier schemes implemented during the Thaksin administration. Some share similarities with the vision Thaksin outlined in various forums.
The rollout of the government's flagship digital wallet scheme, for example, followed Thaksin's remarks at a "Vision for Thailand 2024" speech at the Siam Paragon shopping complex.
Citing the committee responsible for the initiative, Thaksin said an initial budget of 145 billion baht would be distributed to vulnerable people by September (last year).
At its first cabinet meeting, the government approved an economic stimulus plan for 2024, targeting around 12.4 million individuals with state welfare cards and 2.15 million people with disabilities as the first recipients of the cash handout. Payments began on Sept 25.
During a campaign rally for a Pheu Thai candidate in the provincial administrative organisation (PAO) chairman election in Udon Thani, Thaksin hinted the elderly would be the next group to receive the handout.
Shortly after, the government announced the second phase of the digital wallet scheme, with distribution set to begin later this month.
Other schemes set to roll out this year such as the "One District, One Scholarship" and the "One District, One Summer Camp" schemes to expand education opportunities for underprivileged students are modelled on the Thaksin government's "One District, One Scholarship" initiative.
The launch of "Home for Thais" housing project for low-income earners and new graduates on Friday presided over by Ms Paetongtarn also followed Thaksin's speech in Udon Thani where he told the crowd those wishing to have their own homes would soon see their dreams come true.
The government also pushed forward plans to legalise casino-entertainment complexes. On Jan 5, Thaksin backed the idea during a campaign speech in Chiang Rai, and on Jan 13, cabinet approved the Entertainment Complex Bill.
This fuelled public perceptions of Thaksin wielding greater influence over the government, sparking criticism and leading to the phrase "What the father envisions, the daughter does."
This is similar to the motto "Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai does," adopted by the party when Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's younger sister, was prime minister.
The Yingluck government was criticised for several policies particularly the rice-pledging scheme which resulted in heavy financial losses and the blanket amnesty law which triggered street protests and led to the 2014 coup.
Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), said whether the Paetongtarn cabinet will face a situation similar to the Yingluck government depends on the level of opposition to Thaksin's vision.
The casino-entertainment complex project has the potential to draw resistance because it was not among its promises during the 2023 general election campaign and is seen as Thaksin's brainchild, he said.
He said the Pheu Thai Party has acted swiftly on the issue and it is likely to generate wide public concern, adding the casino-entertainment complex project is fuelling "What the father envisions, the daughter does" saying.
The outline of the "Home for Thais" housing project is similar to the corruption-plagued Baan Eua Arthorn housing project. Former Pheu Thai member and former social development and human security minister Watana Muangsook was sentenced to 50 years in prison over his role in irregularities in the scheme, by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions.
The 2001 memorandum of understanding (MoU) on maritime claims in the Gulf of Thailand, which is being revived, is also apparently part of Thaksin's agenda and has sparked opposition, Mr Phichai said.
"These three issues and the possible return of Yingluck are a political timebomb," he said, referring to Thaksin's remarks that his sister might return right around this year's Songkran festival.
Mr Phichai said other risks that could cut short the Paetongtarn cabinet's term include internal rifts within the coalition government which could lead to a House dissolution and pending cases against the Pheu Thai Party lodged with independent public agencies.

Phichai: A political timebomb