The latest barbs traded between former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and Palang Pracharath Party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon have once again aroused debate over what to call the latter -- a career soldier or a politician.
The spat began with Gen Prawit claiming victimisation due to constant attacks on his party. Although he did not spell out where the attacks were coming from, they were implied to have originated from the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
Gen Prawit was speaking at the party's recent annual seminar in Prachuap Khiri Khan, during which he said the country had slipped back into its old habits of morally deficient politics plagued by infighting.
He said the state of politics today is a far cry from being a people-centric ideal.
He also claimed that the PPRP, once the ruling party during Prayut Chan-o-cha's administration, has been on the receiving end of an onslaught, notably since it was left out of Paetongtarn Shinawatra's coalition line-up in September last year.
An observer said the PPRP having been booted out is a testament to the party not being regarded as a significant actor in the "super deal" believed to have been struck between Pheu Thai and the conservative camp, which counts the Bhumjaithai and the United Thai Nation (UTN) parties as its main members.
The "super deal" has been widely attributed by insiders to the success in forming the Pheu Thai-led government led by Srettha Thavisin following the May 2023 general election.
The deal involved settling on what was initially thought to be an unlikely compromise between Pheu Thai and the right-wing parties, given their starkly different ideals. The alliance had effectively prevented the now-dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP), which has been reborn as the People's Party, from forming a government.
Pheu Thai was the crucial "swing" party the conservative bloc had to rely on to keep the MFP at bay.
The PPRP, on the other hand, became expendable to Pheu Thai, which later decided to replace it with the Democrat Party as a coalition partner in the Paetongtarn administration, according to the observer.
It could also be construed that the PPRP was seen as the weakest link among the conservative parties, the observer said.
Thaksin, who wields tremendous influence over Pheu Thai, does not see eye to eye with Gen Prawit either.
He could have been behind Pheu Thai's decision to exclude Gen Prawit's faction from the new coalition, the observer said.
The ex-premier, who is Ms Paetongtarn's father, suspects Gen Prawit orchestrated a move by a group of former senators to petition the Constitutional Court to dismiss Mr Srettha as premier for appointing ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as PM's Office minister.
Mr Srettha was later removed by the court.
Pheu Thai MPs were also reportedly angry with Gen Prawit for failing to attend the vote to elect Ms Paetongtarn as prime minister, as well as the previous vote to elect Mr Srettha.
The observer also said it would not be unreasonable for conservative supporters to turn against Gen Prawit, who has tried to shrug off affiliation with the Prayut government and keep a distance from the far right.
Gen Prawit has reiterated on more than one occasion that he did not take part in engineering the 2014 coup that drove the Pheu Thai-led government from power.
The observer said his actions were interpreted as a strategy to reinvent the PPRP as a moderate conservative party to make it easier to join future governments.
However, the move has backfired as waning support from the conservative bloc has exposed the party to the danger of being treated as a pariah by all camps.
The observer added that although Gen Prawit, who was army chief from Oct 1, 2004, to Sept 30, 2005, had subsequently served as deputy chairman of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the 2014 coup maker, he tends to be regarded as a power-broker politician.
He was also appointed as defence minister under the Abhisit Vejjajiva administration and deputy PM and defence minister in the Prayut government, during which he also served as acting premier for a month in 2022.
But Thaksin knew how to hurt Gen Prawit the most. He recently made a remark pillorying Gen Prawit for being an architect of the 2014 coup, which the former PM said was the root of all political upheavals since.
He accused the NCPO of writing or rewriting laws to keep him out of politics while consolidating its own power.
Don't count your chickens...
The ruling Pheu Thai Party may have emerged as the winner of the Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chief elections, but the number of provinces secured indicates a shift in momentum, according to observers.
Thaksin: Lost his political edge?
The elections took place on Feb 1 in 47 out of 77 provinces. The PAO chief posts in the other 29 provinces were already filled as the officeholders had resigned before their terms ended, triggering the need for earlier elections.
Pheu Thai fielded candidates in 14 provinces in last Saturday's polls, with former premier Thaksin touring these provinces to drum up support for its candidates.
Victory was secured in 10 provinces -- Chiang Mai, Lampang, Phrae, Nan, Nakhon Ratchasima, Sakon Nakhon, Nong Khai, Maha Sarakham, Nakhon Phanom and Prachin Buri -- while its network won four.
According to observers, Pheu Thai's election wins should not be taken at face value.
In Chiang Mai, regarded as the ruling party's heartland and Thaksin's hometown, Pheu Thai won by a thin margin, and its candidate in neighbouring Chiang Rai, which had long been a Pheu Thai stronghold, failed to win despite Thaksin's efforts to court voters there.
Victories obtained by other parties should not be overlooked, particularly Bhumjaithai's network, which captured 14 PAO chief seats in provinces that included Buri Ram, Si Sa Ket, Amnat Charoen, Bung Kan, Lop Buri, Phichit, Krabi, Satun and Chiang Rai.
The United Thai Nation (UTN) Party won PAO elections in Phuket, Samut Songkhram, Surat Thani and Phatthalung. The Democrat Party captured three in Songkhla, Trang and Prachuap Khiri Khan, while independent candidates won in three provinces.
The Chartthaipattana and Prachachat parties won two each, while the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the Kla Dharma Party each took one.
Looking at the overall results in 76 provinces, Bhumjaithai, the third-largest party, has expanded its support bases beyond those of Pheu Thai and possibly its expense, according to observers.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institue, told the Bangkok Post that Pheu Thai may still be ahead, but Bhumjaithai is right on its heels when considering the overall outcome.
Out of 76 provinces, Pheu Thai and its network captured 24, accounting for 32% of the popular vote.
Bhumjaithai and its "blue" affiliations won in 23 provinces or 31.5% of the vote. These wins show that the coalition partner, which only won 70 seats, or about half of Pheu Thai's total, in the last general election, will not be easy to defeat in the next one in 2027.
"In the grand scheme of things, it suggests that Thaksin has lost his political edge.
"In the next general election, Pheu Thai and Thaksin will need a better strategy to win votes. Unlike the 2023 polls, Bhumjaithai is expected to be a much stronger opponent," Mr Thanaporn said.
He also pointed out that in working with Bhumjaithai in the coalition from now on, the ruling party may no longer be able to wield bargaining power on various issues.
The analyst said the main opposition People's Party (PP) fared spectacularly poorly in the Feb 1 polls, having only won in the small northern province of Lamphun, despite fielding candidates in 17 provinces.
PP leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut had the opportunity to address voters and showcase his vision in every province the PP contested, but the party only managed to claim one victory.
It is probably time for the PP to consider a leadership change as Mr Natthaphong has obviously failed to impress voters, Mr Thanaporn said.
Mr Natthaphong was elected party leader in August last year after the dissolution of the Move Forward Party (MFP). The MFP's former deputy secretary-general edged out former deputy MFP leader Sirikanya Tansakun.
"The orange camp may need to seriously assess the situation and determine if its current leader has what it takes to lead the party to victory in the next general election," said Mr Thanaporn.
Moreover, some observers also questioned whether the PP's sole winner, Weeradej Pupisit, secured his victory due to the party's popularity or his family's connections.
Mr Weeradej's father, Prasert, is a former president of the Lamphun PAO and former president of the Lamphun chamber of commerce, which hardly made the PP candidate an unknown figure.
Mr Weeradej defeated Anusorn Wongwan of the Pheu Thai Party.