The patriarch of the Bhumjaithai Party has demonstrated his acumen and vision in building solid local administrative powerhouses from the ground up -- in the process allowing a glimpse into the party's plan to harness sustained political strength from them.
Newin Chidchob, co-founder of and a towering figure in Bhumjaithai, recently chimed in at a forum with a suggestion on how provincial administrative organisations (PAOs) can be streamlined and better serve local residents' needs.
Mr Newin was a keynote speaker at the forum, where participants were educated on the forging of close relations with provincial governors and PAO chairs using the success story of Buri Ram, Bhumjaithai's heartland, as a model. Most participants were provincial governors and PAO chiefs from around the country.
Bhumjaithai has found PAOs to be a treasure trove of administrative powers which give the party what it needs to stay on top of its political game as well as canvass support for future general elections.
The biggest coalition partner has performed strongly in local polls. Even though the party did not officially run in the Feb 1 PAO chairman polls in 47 out of 77 provinces, its allies won 14 out of 47 seats up for grabs.
Bhumjaithai was believed to have avoided fielding candidates on account of party leader Anutin Charnvirakul helming the Interior Ministry, which oversees local administrative and grassroots organisations nationwide. A conflict of interest would have landed him and the entire party in hot water.
A political analyst said Bhumjaithai is out to score political points on various fronts; it has eased itself into the conservative camp with its mantra to steadfastly uphold the nation, religion and monarchy; and it has been identified as the "blue" party asserting dominance over most senators elected in inter-professional, multi-tier polls last year.
It has been positioned as the biggest of the right-wing parties. Despite the ruling Pheu Thai reluctantly embracing the label of a "neo-conservative" party, traditional conservative voters generally do not accept Pheu Thai, according to the analyst.
The voters think former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, seen as the de facto head of Pheu Thai, does not and will never fit the mould of a right-leaning leader.
Pheu Thai's predecessor, the Thai Rak Thai Party, stood bitterly opposed to the values of conservative parties while it headed a government, and Thaksin has now also been charged with lese majeste and computer crime offences stemming from an interview he gave in South Korea in 2015.
In comparison, supporters on the right are looking at Bhumjaithai with far less suspicion. Some academics have predicted Bhumjaithai will emerge from the next election, two years from now, in a better position with more than 100 MPs. Bhumjaithai now has 70.
If the prediction comes true, Bhumjaithai's expansion will have eaten into some of the support bases of current ultra-conservative parties like the United Thai Nation Party and Palang Pracharath Party. Both parties command 55 MPs between them.
If either or both parties shrink in the next election, it would likely be a case of some traditional voters opting for Bhumjaithai. In such an event, Bhumjaithai would be the only conservative "titan" left standing against Pheu Thai and the liberal People's Party (PP), the analyst said.
The analyst added that conservative voters might be tempted to support Bhumjaithai in the general election as their last line of defence against the PP.
Bhumjaithai has also been galvanised by its solid connection with most senators whose term extends beyond the next general election. Despite an ongoing investigation by the Election Commission into collusion among groups of candidates in last year's senatorial polls, only a handful of senators in the so-called "blue-affiliated" faction, a reference to Bhumjaithai, may be affected.
Bhumjaithai-Senate ties will then continue on a strong footing, which would provide the party with immense political leverage over other parties in deciding the fate of key legislation.
The analyst said Bhumjaithai may have set its sights on consolidating its position by winning as many PAO chief elections as possible. The PAOs are known to have at their disposal budgetary management of local administrative organisations, and their close bonds with residents can easily translate into political advantages for parties that run the PAOs during a general election.
Although Bhumjaithai has done fairly well so far in PAO races, there remains plenty of room for internal improvement of the organisations, according to Mr Newin.
He told the Buri Ram forum he had spent 15 years converting Buri Ram from a sleepy "pass-through" lower northeastern province into a bustling destination and home of Buriram United Football Club, of which Mr Newin is chairman.
He said the transformation was due to the grace and goodwill shown to the people of Buri Ram by His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej the Great during his visits to the province.
Mr Newin pointed to a major downside of having appointed governors direct provincial affairs. He noted that governors come and go and rarely stay in a province long enough to see projects they started through.
The governors move to other provinces in reshuffles ordered by the Interior Ministry.
The lack of continuity in implementing local policies could be offset by elected PAO chiefs installed by the people, who stand a chance of being re-elected if they impress voters.
Mr Newin insisted that local administrative organisations will grow stronger and more prosperous only if people are given a mandate to select leaders of such organisations with no limit on how many terms they can serve.
"I have said to Bhumjaithai members it is time to initiate a law change that will let people decide where their income tax should be allocated.
"People should have the final say on whether the tax they pay should be diverted to local organisations of their choice, instead of having the money automatically channelled to the central government where the fund is held up [before being distributed]," he said.
Having a few aces to play
The Pheu Thai Party is likely to bite its tongue and maintain what is widely seen as a fragile alliance with its partner Bhumjaithai, at least until the Budget Bill for the 2026 fiscal year passes its first reading, expected late next month.
Anutin: Adopting a softer tone
According to observers, Bhumjaithai is believed to hold several cards against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the ruling party leader.
One is its close affiliation with the 200-member Senate, more than half of which is reportedly tied to the party and referred to as the "blue faction".
Although Ms Paetongtarn sailed through a recent no-confidence motion, she still faces ethics questions over two contentious issues raised by the opposition People's Party (PP) during the debate.
The first case concerns her use of promissory notes in her claimed acquisition of shares from her family worth 4.43 billion baht, which should have been subject to 218.7 million baht in gift tax, had the promissory notes not been used in lieu of the usual payment method.
The opposition has called into question the real intention behind Ms Paetongtarn's use of the notes, which critics believe were to be a hidden transaction used to avoid paying the gift tax required for her to acquire the shares.
The other case involves the legitimacy of a land plot in Nakhon Ratchasima where her family-owned luxury hotel, "Thames Valley Khao Yai", is located. The plot housing the luxury hotel is reportedly designated as a watershed area where land documents cannot be issued.
Questions have been asked as to how the company, of which Ms Paetongtarn was an executive and shareholder, came to own the plot.
With such ethics questions hanging over Ms Paetongtarn, Pheu Thai reportedly fears it will face the wrath of Bhumjaithai's founder and patriarch, Newin Chidchob, if it opts for a breakup and pushes Bhumjaithai from the government.
It is no secret that Mr Newin's influence goes beyond his party, and he may seek revenge by seeking formal probes against the prime minister through the Senate.
According to Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), Bhumjaithai has adopted a two-faced strategy that has become more evident following Pheu Thai's attempt to push the highly controversial casino-entertainment scheme.
He pointed to Bhumjaithai secretary-general, Chaichanok Chidchob, denouncing the casino-entertainment project in parliament, while party leader and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul adopted a soft tone and distanced the party from Mr Chaichanok's remark.
Mr Chaichanok's strong opposition has prompted Pheu Thai heavyweights to question the loyalty of their coalition partner; it came despite the House deliberation of the casino-entertainment complex bill being postponed until the next parliamentary session, which is due to start on July 2.
However, the analyst noted that such a strategy does not look good on Bhumjaithai because everyone can see through the party and knows it is trying to win favour with certain groups of middle-class conservative voters. He pointed out that Bhumjaithai's popularity peaked late last year, but its approval rating dipped to below 8% in March this year -- a sign that voters do not approve of its strategy to woo support.
While Pheu Thai feels it has been blindsided by Mr Chaichanok's move, it cannot risk booting Bhumjaithai from the coalition out of concern that Mr Newin could use his ties with the Senate to seek investigations against Ms Paetongtarn over the use of promissory notes and the Khao Yai land, according to Mr Phichai.
"The prime minister has failed to respond to these claims clearly, so it is quite a concern for Pheu Thai that these vulnerabilities will be exploited as soon as Bhumjaithai is kicked out of the coalition. [It can't take a risk,] no matter how badly it wants the interior ministerial post," said Mr Phichai.
According to the analyst, Mr Newin and Mr Anutin apparently do not see eye to eye on what the party should do regarding the casino-extertainment complex bill, but they are not ready for a break-up and understand that they must stick together.
"And no one in Bhumjaithai doubts that Mr Newin remains the party's pillar. He is the master of political tactics, and he knows he does not need to bow to anyone, not even Thaksin Shinawatra," said Mr Phichai.