The Supreme Court stepping in to investigate the alleged unlawful enforcement of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's prison term looks certain to result in some nasty consequences for agencies connected to the correctional procedures in the case.
The event also begs a host of “what if” questions, the most thought-provoking among them being a scenario in which Thaksin decides to spend his time behind bars in an actual prison.
In a rare move by the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions, the court resolved to drop a petitioner but proceeded to look into his petition in which he accused agencies such as the Department of Corrections (DoC) and the Police General Hospital (PGH) of unlawfully enforcing a quasi-prison term on Thaksin.
The petitioner in question was former Democrat Party MP Charnchai Issarasenarak, who asked the court to investigate the DoC’s decision to allow Thaksin to receive treatment at the police hospital on Aug 22, 2023, his first night in custody, allegedly due to serious health issues.
Thaksin remained there for six months until he was granted parole in February last year, prompting questions over whether he received preferential treatment.
Although the court dismissed Mr Charnchai’s petition on the basis that he was not the affected party, it decided to take up the investigation itself and told parties and individuals involved, including Thaksin, to submit explanations.
They were given 30 days to explain, and June 13 was set for a hearing. Legal experts believe this could be when the court rules on whether prison-term enforcement had satisfied legal criteria.
Back on Aug 22, 2023, Thaksin returned from self-imposed exile to serve eight years in jail after being convicted in three cases. From the airport, he was whisked to prison, where he was briefly detained before being determined by prison physicians to be “critically ill” and transferred immediately to the police hospital.
His extended stay in a premium ward on the 14th floor was met with a barrage of criticism that he was receiving special treatment, which was an affront to justice.
The original jail term was commuted from eight years to one year by royal clemency before Thaksin was paroled.
On the day the Supreme Court rejected Mr Charnchai as a petitioner, the Thaksin camp jumped for joy. However, their jubilation was short-lived when the court explained that it had accepted the case in the capacity of an examiner and was directing the investigation under an inquisitorial system.
According to experts, with the judges as examiners, the case would not drag on. The main argument has to do with the DoC having failed to secure the court’s permission prior to sending Thaksin for medical treatment at the PGH.
In this respect, the authority of the court that handed down the prison term against Thaksin was being ignored because normal procedures, which dictated that prior court permission had to be obtained, were sidestepped.
Also, the issue of whether a hospital ward equates to a “prison confinement”, as defined by the DoC, was refuted by some experts who insisted there were clear legal descriptions of out-of-prison confinement, and hospital wards do not fit them.
If the court eventually rules that jail term enforcement was not lawful, the implication for Thaksin would be dire: He could be on his way back to prison to serve the full one-year sentence.
The odds that Thaksin will emerge from this predicament unscathed look very unlikely, according to an observer.
The options for him, though limited, would include fleeing and going back into self-imposed exile.
The observer added that if the former premier opts to take flight, it has been speculated he would have to act fast and avoid appearing in person in court. This is because the judges would order him behind bars for the one-year jail term immediately. The risk may not be worth the gamble for the former premier.
However, the observer suggested it might be more constructive and politically astute for Thaksin and Ms Paetongtarn Shinawatra if he were to stay put and do the jail term in an actual prison.
Thaksin could earn praise for not flouting justice and still be able to continue to give “advice” on national affairs to his prime minister daughter during prison visits.
Being in exile, as Thaksin learned, resulted in him losing touch with politics on the ground in Thailand and gave him a somewhat distorted reality about how Pheu Thai was being run at one point, which was blamed for the party becoming weakened during the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration, according to the observer.
If Thaksin chooses a different path this time and forgoes the exile option, being physically here in the country would bode well for Pheu Thai’s preparations for the next election in two years. He would be out of jail well before it takes place to help the party in campaigning, the observer said.
However, it has been reported Thaksin may submit a written explanation to the court in the prison enforcement case instead of testifying in person. For his critics, this is an indication he could be thinking about making a beeline for the airport or the border before June 13, the observer added.
Force to be reckoned with?
The Klatham Party continues to make waves following its by-election win in Nakhon Si Thammarat’s Constituency 8 in which its candidate, Kongkiat Ketsobat snatched the seat from its larger coalition partner, Bhumjaithai, and secured the party’s first success in the province.
Thamanat: Past could haunt him
The victory brings Klatham’s total number of House seats to 25. However, the party claims that at least five opposition MPs are ready to switch sides, which will increase its tally to 30.
Klatham is getting stronger, which has triggered talk on whether it will eventually supplant the 70-seat Bhumjaithai Party as the third largest party behind the main opposition People’s Party and the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
Tensions between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai have become more intense amid the ongoing investigation by the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) into money laundering related to alleged vote fixing in the Senate election last year.
The probe is believed to target senators in the “blue faction”, a reference to those who are close to Bhumjaithai. Of 200 senators, almost 140 are reportedly associated with the party and between 30 and 50 are believed to be targeted for disqualification.
Pushing back, these senators petitioned the Constitutional Court to examine the conduct of Justice Minister Pol Col Tawee Sodsong, who oversees the DSI. The minister was told to cease overseeing the DSI and the Special Case Committee, but he retains the power to oversee other agencies under the Justice Ministry.
Amid the political tensions, the Klatham Party’s rise is making people wonder if it can fill Bhumjaithai’s shoes if Pheu Thai splits with its largest coalition partner.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said 30 seats may be enough to boost Klatham’s bargaining power in a cabinet reshuffle, which is thought will take place once the 2026 Budget Bill clears its first reading in June.
But the number still falls way short of the target for replacing Bhumjaithai in the government — for now, he said.
However, the analyst noted that Klatham’s chief adviser, Thamanat Prompow, has a three-step roadmap to further his political career.
The first involves winning by-elections and recruiting MPs from other parties, especially the opposition and smaller groups. Even MPs from the coalition parties are on his radar, such as the faction led by Suchart Chomklin of the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.
The goal is to secure more seats in the cabinet, said the analyst.
The next step is for a strong performance in the South — a region where Pheu Thai has struggled for decades — in the next general election. Thamanat is trying to position Klatham as a serious threat to Bhumjaithai in the southern battleground.
With an already solid base in the lower North, the party is expected to deploy the same strategy as Bhumjaithai — wooing influential local political families. The ambitious target of winning 60 to 70 seats at the next election is not out of reach, according to Mr Stithorn.
Following the by-election win in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thamanat was quoted as saying that the victory illustrated the confidence voters in Nakhon Si Thammarat have in the party and the win would enable it to win more seats there in the future.
According to Mr Stithorn, the final step in the roadmap is for Thamanat to bide his time and wait for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to retire from politics. The analyst believed that it would not take more than three election cycles for Thamanat to attract Pheu Thai MPs into Klatham’s fold.
Still, his path is not without hurdles, according to observers.
Thamanat served four years in an Australian prison after being convicted on March 31, 1994, of conspiring to import heroin into Australia. He was sentenced to six years in jail, but after having served four years, he was deported. He denies the offence and has told parliament the illicit substance in question was “flour”.
The 2017 constitution requires cabinet ministers to possess “compelling integrity”, so Thamanat’s legal troubles will come back to haunt him if he has the chance of holding key government positions.
The Constitutional Court ruled earlier that Thamanat was not barred from running as an MP candidate in general elections since he was not convicted of a crime in Thailand.
But his questionable background is believed to be the reason he was excluded by the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration to avoid what happened to the Srettha Thavisin government.
The Constitutional Court dismissed Mr Srettha in August last year over an ethical violation related to the appointment of ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a minister.