The beleaguered United Thai Nation (UTN) Party could be heading for disintegration after the next general election for what it has done to supporters, according to critics.
The ultra-conservative party -- whose leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga was catapulted to instant stardom in the eyes of UTN supporters for having inherited former premier Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha's political "DNA" -- is in an almost unsalvageable state.
Its reversal in fortunes has happened almost overnight.
Akanat: Not abandoning ship
It started with the leaked audio clip in which Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was heard pleading with Cambodia Senate president Hun Sen to help her out of a personal predicament after being bombarded with criticism for being too soft on Cambodia amid the border dispute.
The premier also labelled the 2nd Army Region commander in charge of the military area along the lower northeastern border with Cambodia as an "opponent". She also offered to return the favour if Hun Sen agreed to help her.
The recording, allegedly leaked by the Cambodians, sparked outrage in Thailand and calls for Ms Paetongtarn to step down as premier.
However, when it became apparent Ms Paetongtarn was not throwing in the towel, attention turned to coalition parties. Many of their supporters, particularly those in the conservative camp, demanded they immediately withdraw from the Pheu Thai-led government.
To their disappointment, parties like the Democrat Party and Chartthaipattana announced they were staying put, reasoning it would be a disservice to the country if they abandoned the administration at a politically volatile juncture.
The UTN was the only party reported to have resolved to issue Ms Paetongtarn an ultimatum: resign as prime minister over the leaked audio clip, or the UTN would leave the government.
However, the party never got around to officially issuing such an ultimatum, leaving people wary of the UTN's true intentions.
When approached by reporters, Mr Pirapan refused to speak about any resolution, saying he had been instructed by the party to convey the matter directly to the prime minister and not to the media.
Meanwhile, Ms Paetongtarn, who on Tuesday was suspended by the Constitutional Court from prime ministerial duty pending deliberation of the ethical violation case stemming from the leaked audio clip, denied any knowledge of a UTN ultimatum pressuring her to quit.
The development has split the party even further following a rift which effectively cut the UTN into equal halves, each with 18 MPs.
It was reported that one faction was being wooed to defect to a new outfit funded by an energy conglomerate. The remaining faction with Mr Pirapan and UTN secretary-general Akanat Promphan at the helm has been emasculated by the internal rivalry.
The Pirapan faction in particular looks to have been further weakened by continuing to back the Paetongtarn government. Support within the group is ebbing away as loyal members have contemplated turning their backs on the party.
"It's looking quite grim at this point. It's a split within a split," a source familiar with the issue said.
Finding himself in the firing line from supporters who had counted on the UTN quitting the coalition, Mr Akanat, who is also the industry minister, affirmed the party will remain part of the coalition despite the internal and external challenges.
Speaking after a recent party meeting, Mr Akanat said Thailand is in a fragile state and a functioning government is essential to navigate the current crisis.
"Being in politics this long, I can tell when the situation is at its worst. Decisions are never easy.
"We constantly talk within the party.... With battles going on both inside and outside the party, we must come together and assess developments," the UTN secretary-general said.
In response to suggestions that the party remain in government but push for a new prime minister, Mr Akanat acknowledged there had been calls from supporters for the party to take a firm stance and show accountability.
"We have ongoing discussions. This is a turbulent time -- border tensions, trade disruptions, and international pressure from the US and Iran on oil. The government is needed now more than ever."
He compared the situation to a ship in a storm: "I am the captain of this ship. If I abandon it now, everyone on board will go down with it. It's a hard choice, but I must stay and steer it through."
On reports of founding UTN members resigning in protest against the party's decisions, Mr Akanat said: "We must take responsibility. Supporters can step away, but as the leader, I cannot. It's not an easy path."
Mr Akanat admitted he is not confident the UTN can regain public trust after this. "But I understand the doubts. I won't hide from them. I'm being honest," he said.
He also clarified that the party has not yet committed to fully backing the government in the long term.
"I understand the feeling. But if we don't have a government while the military is engaged at the border, or while we're dealing with trade negotiations and energy shortages -- then what would we have? My duty is to continue," he said.
On the issue of cabinet positions, Mr Akanat made it clear he has no intention of seeking more power. "We've never thought about quotas. The only decision was whether to stay or go. If someone wants my position, they can take it. I'm not attached to titles. I'm still young, and I want to continue in politics -- but based on principles."
He concluded by highlighting the party's ongoing initiatives: "Just the other day, our team [at the Industry Ministry] cracked down on a modern trade scam. If I weren't still here, who knows what direction things might've taken? I'll give my best for as long as I can."
Playing for more time
Although the Constitutional Court voted 7–2 to suspend Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister pending its ruling over a leaked phone call she had with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, she is expected to remain active in the new cabinet.
Paetongtarn: Future as PM in doubt
The suspension order came hours after the Royal Gazette published the official announcement of the new cabinet, in which Ms Paetongtarn was appointed culture minister.
By brushing aside calls for her to step down as prime minister and doubling as the culture minister, political observers see this as a calculated move by her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, widely regarded as the de facto leader of the Pheu Thai Party, to help save face for his daughter and maintain the party's grip on power for as long as possible.
The move will buy time for the ruling party to pursue its political agenda, including going after the so-called blue-camp senators and the Bhumjaithai Party, which earlier quit the coalition following the leaked audio clip.
After nearly two years in office, the Bhumjaithai Party may have left behind skeletons that Pheu Thai can use to weaken its key rival ahead of the next general election, according to observers.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, said the Paetongtarn administration remains in place because the conservative bloc sees little to gain in forcing Pheu Thai out.
The conservative camp cannot afford to make more enemies and still needs Pheu Thai to contain the rising influence of the main opposition People's Party (PP), according to Mr Stithorn.
A House dissolution is also not an option because the current political turmoil stems largely from Ms Paetongtarn's lack of experience. Furthermore, a snap election would only benefit the PP while the coalition partners would likely lose even more ground.
Although the Pheu Thai-led government is languishing, the coalition has so far managed to keep the PP from rising to power, said Mr Stithorn.
"The old power clique believes Pheu Thai can't be allowed to collapse, as doing so would make it harder to control the game.
"Right now, it's about buying time. With public support at its lowest point, Pheu Thai also knows it doesn't have much time," he said.
According to the analyst, Pheu Thai's focus, for now, is to make the most of the power the Interior Ministry holds and assert control over as many constituencies as possible through administrative organisations in the ministry's network before a likely House dissolution predicted to take place later this year.
The Interior Ministry, which oversees provincial administrations and controls a vast bureaucratic network, plays a central role in implementing policies and thus directly influences voter support.
"The goal is to return to power after the next election and continue holding off the PP," said the analyst.
On the legal front, Ms Paetongtarn has 15 days to submit a written explanation to the Constitutional Court.
Legal scholar Jade Donavanik said the judicial review process can be relatively quick if the court decides that an inquiry is unnecessary. However, if an inquiry is launched, Ms Paetongtarn can fully defend herself, and the timeline could stretch out further.
In the event that Ms Paetongtarn is removed from office, Chaikasem Nitisiri, one of the three Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidates, is likely to be nominated for the top job, he said.
With Srettha Thavisin, Pheu Thai's first prime ministerial candidate, having been named premier and subsequently removed from office by the Constitutional Court for an ethical violation last year, and Ms Paetongtarn facing a similar fate, with several petitions seeking her removal, the only option for Pheu Thai appears to be Mr Chaikasem, who turns 77 in August.
Mr Chaikasem, a former attorney-general, recently moved to allay fears about his health, saying he is now fit to become premier.
The blood clot found at the back of his neck, which caused a stroke, has since been dissolved, and there were no other health concerns he needed to worry about, he said during a round of golf in Nakhon Nayok on June 28.
A photo of him teeing off was widely seen as a quiet signal that he is ready to step in if needed.
Mr Jade ruled out the possibility of former prime minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, currently a Privy Council member, returning to politics, even though he remains a prime minister candidate of the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.
"Gen Prayut's return could be exploited by the PP to criticise the institution of the monarchy. Mr Chaikasem would be a better choice," he said, adding a House dissolution was inevitable.
According to Mr Jade, public dissatisfaction with Ms Paetongtarn is likely to intensify due to her refusal to step down and decision to take the culture minister post, with protests expected to spread to other provinces after a large turnout of at least 10,000 people at an anti-government rally on June 28 at the Victory Monument in Bangkok.