Flash mobs 'won't work'

Flash mobs 'won't work'

Veteran leaders warn Thanathorn street rallies will lead FFP to trap

Leaders of anti-government rallies, the yellow shirts and the red shirts, have warned Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit against implementing the "wrong" strategies.

Sondhi Limthongkul, former leader of the defunct yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which rallied to oust the Thaksin Shinawatra government, warned Mr Thanathorn's strategies are leading him into a trap.

While the government has set the rules for politics in parliament, which puts control in its hands, the FFP's decision to turn to street protests is not the solution, he said. The rallying strategy of using flash mobs will not be strong enough to oust the government, he said.

"A flash mob is only a flash mob. It hardly continues to fan out," said the man who gave a landmark speech to thousands of supporters near the Pathumwan intersection one hot night in April, 2006. Five months later, the army staged a coup to topple the Thaksin administration.

With the party's almost 80 MPs, it would be better to first use the parliamentary mechanism to keep the government in check on controversial issues, including the herbicide ban, and stand on the same side of people to gain their trust and reinforce the FFP political base, he said.

In parallel with these jobs, "you [Mr Thanathorn] can start a rally on social medial to unite people. When the time is ripe, simply light a fire on a whole field," he said.

His remarks come as some people have begun to question whether the flash mob staged by Mr Thanathorn could spark months-long demonstrations.

To some people, the hundreds of rally-goers who filled Pathumwan Skywalk to cheer on Mr Thanathorn last Saturday recall a similar rally near the same spot 13 years ago.

The difference is there was no elevated walkway in 2006; demonstrators sat under a pedestrian bridge along part of Rama I Road to listen to a man whose words united people in a fight against the alleged power abuses and corrupt practices of the then Thaksin Shinawatra government.

The PAD, which started its anti-government campaign in 2005, saw a change of power as a result of its street protest.

Conversely, the pro-Thaksin United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) dealt a heavy blow at its own rally in 2010 to the Abhisit Vejjajiva government it accused of being backed by the military.

In 2014, the Pheu Thai-led government, which is believed to be a proxy of Thaksin, was ousted by a coup again, following a massive protest by the defunct People's Democratic Reform Committee. The demonstration, led by former deputy prime minister Suthep Thaugsuban, was in response to Pheu Thai lawmakers and their allies who hastened to pass the blanket amnesty bill for political offenders including Thaksin.

Mr Thanathorn shares an anti-coup stance with the UDD, but his call for a rally raised doubts over its timing. It follows the Election Commission's (EC) decision to ask the Constitutional Court to dissolve his party for allegedly violating the organic law on political parties for accepting a 191-million-baht loan from him to finance its election campaign.

His attempt is not viewed by critics as the start of a new fight against the government, which is accused by the Future Forward Party of prolonging the power of the 2014 coup.

In their view, the FFP alone cannot urge the public to march against the government. Only the government's own deeds will trigger such a powerful reaction.

Unripe moment

"I don't think a [real] protest has really lit up yet," Mr Sondhi told the Bangkok Post, though he admitted many people had joined Mr Thanathorn last Saturday because they felt uncomfortable with the army's role and are suspicious of the so-called transparency of the Defence Ministry.

The rally did not occur at the right time as it came just one day after the election watchdog petitioned the court on Dec 13 to consider disbanding the FFP for its loan deals, according to Mr Sondhi.

It is still debatable whether the party made a mistake, "so it's not right if Mr Thanathorn mobilises people for his own cause," Mr Sondhi said.

The former PAD co-leader suggested Mr Thanathorn and his party wait for the emergence of irregularities in a government which is unstable due to internal conflicts among coalition parties.

Confidence or arrogance?

Mr Sondhi believes Mr Thanathorn's character swings between these two traits and this will be a major hindrance to the success the FFP seems to be dreaming of.

"You may die because of your words and methods," Mr Sondhi warned.

It is good Mr Thanathorn has a strong determination to change the country as it is also the same goal of many youngsters, but if he succumbs to carelessness, he could fall into a trap made by his rivals, the former PAD leader insists.

"I dare say if Mr Thanathorn only thinks of taking people onto the street, he'll end up like me," Mr Sondhi said.

The founder of the Manager Media Group, Mr Sondhi, 72, once led people to expel a Thaksin government which, besides its alleged misconduct, also restricted people's freedom of expression.

The media firebrand admitted he has dedicated his life to achieving a better society, but "I was eventually fooled and injured and all my successes were stolen by somebody else".

Unclear purposes

Like Mr Sondhi, former UDD core leader Jatuporn Prompan also does not see what the ultimate goal of the FFP heavyweights and rally-goers is.

This is the homework which party executives must do before calling a street demonstration. The UDD had only one aim -- to foster an anti-dictatorship movement -- which drew huge support from many people, believes Mr Jatuporn.

"However, the objective must go beyond personal interests. It must be one people agree with," Mr Jatuporn said.

"That's what I've not seen yet in the FFP-led protest."

Rally escalation

But if Mr Thanathorn manages to make a powerful protest of the orange shirts, which symbolise FFP supporters, the question is: how can he direct the rally to fit in with his plans?

"Mr Thanathorn must brace for whatever happens," Mr Jatuporn said. "Rally-goers tend to go further than their leaders want."

He said many street rallies tend to get out of control because demonstrators are full of hope and want victory. This is a big challenge protest leaders cannot avoid.

"Rally-goers may grumble about joining what is just a one-hour rally," Mr Jatuporn said.

"But if the same call is made again and again, they'll put pressure on the leaders to do more."

The red-shirt co-leader is also worried about reports of a parallel protest against what he calls the "anti-nation movement".

He did not elaborate but warned it is likely to make the street rallies escalate.

A wild card

Legal and political science experts stressed the government will be the wild card which decides whether any Thanathorn-initiated rally will lead to a string of anti-government protests.

That prospect may occur if the government fails to clarify public doubts over the work of independent agencies, including the EC, because many of them were set up by the defunct National Council for Peace and Order during the post-coup period.

"People suspect they'll side with the government," deputy Thammasat University rector and law scholar Prinya Thaewanarumitkul said, adding this can spark dissatisfaction with state authorities.

Echoing Mr Prinya, Thammasat political scientist Surachai Sirikrai said these feelings will urge many people, already dissatisfied with the government's progress in tackling the economic slowdown, to support the rally.

However, the question of whether street protests will lead to a change in the political arena remains.

"I think it's hardly possible to fell the government with mobs," said Gothom Arya, adviser to Institute of Human Rights and Peace Studies.

The military-backed government is too strong to be defeated with this method, he said.

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