Economists and political analysts see potential in the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration's policies, but the public will have to wait and see how they turn out.
Ms Paetongtarn last Thursday delivered her government's policy statement to parliament, focusing on measures to improve people's economic well-being and increase the state's income.
Ms Paetongtarn outlined plans for debt restructuring, particularly concerning home and car loans, alongside support for informal debtors. Long-term policies were also mentioned, such as developing entertainment complexes, which include casinos, and a water management project to combat persistent flooding and drought.
The government is required to present its policy statement to parliament before starting work.
Focus on economic relief
Nonarit Bisonyabut, a senior research fellow at Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), backed the policy statement, although he pointed out that 20–30% of key elements appeared to be missing.
"We must remember that this is still just a policy announcement, essentially an idea. We'll have to see whether these ideas can be put into practice or not," he said.
Comprehensive debt restructuring is a sound and necessary policy, especially given the skyrocketing levels of household debt in the country, he said. The key issue, however, is to find an effective approach, as previous efforts, including debt suspension and negotiation, have met limited success.
He said while it is crucial to solve household debt, the government must figure out how to do so without pushing the financial burden onto future generations.
Mr Nonarit welcomed the government's adjustment of its 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme, although the scheme still requires massive spending.
During the first phase, the stimulus money will be first distributed to 14.5 million vulnerable people, or 12.4 million with state welfare cards and 2.1 million disabled individuals, with each receiving 10,000 baht.
The second phase, which is for registered eligible recipients, depends on the readiness of the payment platform itself. A budget of 187 billion baht has been earmarked for distribution in the 2025 fiscal year.
Mr Nonarit said handing out cash to vulnerable groups will have the intended effect because it targets those who are most in need. The change from digital to cash payments is expected to have a considerable impact.
The second phase would provide assistance to those who are not in financial trouble but are still in need.
Nonarit: Handout for vulnerable groups only
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said the Paetongtarn government focuses heavily on economic policies, which address the people's livelihoods.
With the 10,000-baht handout set to roll out later this month, he urged the government to speed up debt restructuring and complete it in 15 days as the matter falls directly under the government's authority.
Mr Thanaporn cited as an example the success of debt restructuring measures for housing where fee contributions to the Financial Institutions Development Fund were reduced to assist borrowers from state banks.
"The principle is sound, but improvements may be needed in monitoring whether the banks use the funds to restructure debts for those in need, rather than spending on the banks' regular projects," he said.
"This should not be difficult for the Finance Ministry to handle, given the clear financial parameters involved," he added.
Thanaporn: Complete debt restructuring now
Megaproject concerns
Mr Nonarit said legalising some underground economic activities to generate state revenue as part of a casino-entertainment complex is interesting but challenging. While it could bring economic benefits, there are also social downsides to consider.
"As a concept, it's intriguing and has potential. The real question is how to make it work," he said.
Megaprojects such as the Land Bridge have significant economic implications and his concern lies with the state spending involved.
It is unclear how much investment will come from the state and the private sector, and if the government ends up shouldering a large portion of the project cost, there are financial risks, he added.
"And suddenly, there is talk about a land reclamation project and the building of nine artificial islands to address rising sea levels -- none of which was part of the election campaign," he said.
Mr Nonarit said natural disasters are becoming more severe due to climate change and governments have limited time to address its long-term issues. Furthermore, even long-term planning may become obsolete because of constant changes.
The latest idea, similar to the "Sponge City" concept, focuses on designing cities to allow people to coexist with water rather than trying to combat it, he said, noting the government has been slow to consider this approach.
He acknowledged the government alone cannot mitigate the impacts of climate change and said local bodies and communities must help.
Mr Thanaporn said new megaprojects introduced by the government reflect the vision of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is widely referred to as the ruling Pheu Thai Party's "big boss". Thaksin is Ms Paetongtarn's father.
Thaksin is known for selling grand ideas to stir excitement and capture attention, but more often than not these schemes fail to live up to expectations, he said.
Given previous projects tainted by irregularities, like the Baan Ua-arthorn housing welfare scheme and the rice-pledging project, megaprojects today often raise concerns about potential corruption, he said.
"Let's wait and see how the Land Bridge and casino-entertainment complex projects develop," he said.
Deal with debt first
Chaiwat Sathawornwichit, a list-MP of the opposition People's Party, said the government must prioritise tackling household debt as some families are struggling financially and resorting to non-formal loans.
The Srettha Thavisin administration fell short in addressing debt problems despite declaring it a national agenda item, he said.
He suggested increasing income and reducing the cost of living may not be enough and the government may consider lowering interest rates and payment obligations as well.
He said the government needs to find solutions to tackle the issue because substantive measures are lacking.
"If the government keeps on relying on superficial activities like holding press conferences and hosting [promotional] events, the problem will persist," he said.
Mr Chaiwat said the digital wallet scheme should be put on hold, as it is not worth the cost. He argued the 450 billion baht budget set aside to fund the programme would be better spent on more pressing issues, such as providing soft loans to support those in need.
He also criticised the government's foreign policy as being rather weak, saying Thailand is the second-largest economy in Asean and should position itself more strategically.
Moreover, he said that with the sharp increase in call-centre scams, the government should turn this crisis into an opportunity by strengthening cooperation with other nations.
Chaiwat: Downplays 'Baan Pa' threat
Potential risks
When asked about the obstacles faced by the government, Mr Thanaporn said amending the charter is not an urgent policy and there are signs the matter may be prolonged. The Senate may drag its feet over the public referendum bill, he said.
The prime minister will need to discuss the matter with the Bhumjaithai Party, which is believed to have ties with most senators, if the government is committed to the charter rewrite before the next general election, he said.
Regardless of the legal warfare and intense scrutiny from the Palang Pracharath Party after the ruling party dropped a faction led by PPRP leader Prawit Wongsuwon from the cabinet, the political analyst said the risk against the government is low.
"I don't think there are significant risks for the government, which has the overwhelming majority. Legal threats from Baan Pa will likely fall as the political landscape is shifting [to Bhumjaithai]," he said.
"Baan Pa" refers to the Five Provinces Bordering Forest Preservation Foundation, at the 1st Infantry Regiment in Bangkok's Phaya Thai district. The foundation is believed to be Gen Prawit's unofficial office.
Mr Chaiwat said the government has a "family cabinet" image, so this leaves state officials uncertain about who is really in charge and wondering about policy continuity.
The opposition MP also doubted the government is serious about charter rewrite as the issue is discussed in broad terms. He expressed concerns about the effectiveness of the drug suppression policy due to the government's inconsistent stance on cannabis.
Mr Chaiwat said that having several coalition partners does affect the formulation of the government policy, and it is reflected in the cabinet line-up.
The stability of the government is likely to depend on how interests are divided and shared among the coalition partners, he added.