The outcome of a Supreme Court hearing regarding claims of improper enforcement of the prison sentence against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will make or break his political future, an academic says.
The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions has decided to launch an inquiry into the time served in prison by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's father.
It follows a petition filed by former Democrat MP Charnchai Issarasenarak, who asked the court to investigate the Department of Corrections' (DoC) decision to allow Thaksin to receive treatment for a medical complaint at Police General Hospital (PGH) away from Bangkok Remand Prison.
Thaksin, generally considered de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, returned from self-imposed exile on Aug 22, 2023.
On the same day, the Supreme Court sentenced him to eight years in prison -- three years in total from two cases and a further five years in a third case. The sentence was later reduced to one year following royal clemency.
On his first night in custody, the DoC transferred Thaksin to the PGH, citing his serious health issues.
He remained there until he was granted parole in February last year, prompting public questions over whether he had received special treatment.
Mr Charnchai said the DoC allowed Thaksin to seek treatment at the PGH without court approval, which he argues was in violation of the Criminal Code.
He also argued the ministerial regulations could not be used to justify Thaksin's transfer and has asked the court to issue an arrest warrant for Thaksin to serve his jail sentence.
In response, the Supreme Court on April 30 dismissed Mr Charnchai's petition on the ground the former Democrat MP was not an affected party in any of the cases.
However, the court said it has the authority to look into the matter due to concerns the prison sentence may not have been adequately enforced.
"When it appears to the court there may be an incident in which a final ruling has not been properly enforced, it has the authority to hold an inquiry and issue an order," it said.
The court said that a copy of the petition will be sent to the plaintiffs in the cases, as well as to Thaksin, the defendant, so they can submit explanations.
Copies will also be sent to the commander of Bangkok Remand Prison, the director-general of the DoC, and the chief of PGH to submit documents to the court.
These parties are required to respond within 30 days of being notified of the order, and a hearing for the inquiry is set for June 13.
In the first case, Thaksin was sentenced in absentia to three years in prison for conflict of interest.
The court said Thaksin had ordered the state-run Export-Import Bank to lend 4 billion baht at a below-cost interest rate to Myanmar so it could buy products from Shin Satellite Plc, a company owned by his family.
In the second case, Thaksin was convicted of illegally launching a two- and three-digit lottery between 2003 and 2006.
This was an abuse of power as the scheme was not supported by any legislation, the court said.
In the third case, the court sentenced Thaksin, who made his fortune in the telecoms industry, to five years for malfeasance in connection with the handling of telephone concessions and conflicts of interest from 2001 to 2006 during his two terms as prime minister.
The plaintiffs in these three cases are the Office of Attorney-General, the Assets Scrutiny Committee (ASC) and the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC).
Back behind bars?
Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), posted on his Facebook that if the court rules the sentence against Thaksin was not adequately enforced and his hospital stay was against the law, it may order him to be sent back to jail to fully serve his one-year term.
But if the court accepts the explanations from the DoC and the PGH that Thaksin's hospital stay was legal, the case will be laid to rest, without any impact on Thaksin, Mr Phichai said.
"The hearing on June 13 will be crucial. If the court rules against him, Thaksin may have to face punishment and this could affect his political role in the future," Mr Phichai said.
He also said the inquiry is expected to cause great concern for Pheu Thai especially if the court rules against Thaksin.
If Thaksin is sent back to jail, this could demoralise Pheu Thai members as well as party supporters, Mr Phichai said.
"While Thaksin's supporters may feel Thaksin is facing political persecution, his opponents may take this opportunity to highlight the claims that Thaksin received preferential treatment during his hospital stay.
"The outcome of the court's inquiry will have a significant impact on public perception of the justice system.
"If the court rules in Thaksin's favour, it risks criticism for accepting improper enforcement of its sentence. But if the court rules against him, it will help boost public trust in the justice system," Mr Phichai said.
This could also lead to fresh political conflict at a time when the country is struggling with economic problems and domestic political challenges, he said, adding Thaksin remains an influential figure in Thai politics, and whichever way the court's ruling goes, political ramifications will follow.
"The court's decision shows it is serious about investigating the enforcement of the prison sentence against Thaksin. As a result, this could pose political and legal risks to Thaksin's future.
"The outcome of the inquiry will show the level of credibility of the country's justice system," Mr Phichai said.
He added the court's decision to launch its own inquiry would result in the DoC and the PGH being intensely scrutinised over their roles in this case.
However, with the hearing scheduled for June 13, Thaksin still has enough time to prepare a legal defence, he said.
Phichai: DoC and PGH may be the real losers
Likely to survive
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, echoed the view Thaksin is likely to escape any further legal consequences.
This is because if anyone is to receive punishment, it will be the officials who failed to properly enforce the prison sentence against him.
All the case can do [to Thaksin] is put him under pressure from his opponents, Mr Stithorn told the Bangkok Post.
However, the former prime minister faces another court date for an alleged violation of Section 112 of the Criminal Code, better known as the lese majeste law, Mr Stithorn said.
In this case, Thaksin stands accused of violating the law during an interview with a news agency in Seoul in 2015 in which his replies have been deemed as hostile to the monarchy by some. The court has scheduled the witness examination for July.
Stithorn: No return to jail for Thaksin
Restore public trust
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, told the Bangkok Post the court's decision to launch its own inquiry shows it wants to regain public trust in the justice system following the allegations that followed the prolonged spell the DoC allowed Thaksin to remain in hospital.
"The court has to take action to show that the public can still rely on the justice system," he said.
Mr Olarn also said he believes it is likely that Thaksin will survive the case while officials at the DoC and the PGH will end up in trouble.
"When Thaksin claimed he was ill, those who diagnosed his conditions may be in trouble," he said.
He said if the court rules against Thaksin, the coalition government may be thrown into disarray considering Thaksin's claimed influence over its affairs.
Mr Olarn also said the Bhumjaithai Party, the second-largest in the coalition, may take this opportunity to attempt to wrest the prime minister's seat from the Pheu Thai.
Olarn: Court wants to regain trust
