The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions will on Friday begin an inquiry into former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 181-day hospital stay at the Police General Hospital (PGH).
Although the court has granted Thaksin a one-month extension to submit his explanation, political analysts believe the inquiry could rock the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
The court is to determine whether or not the jail sentence it handed to Thaksin, who is said to be the de facto leader of the party, was genuinely enforced by the Department of Corrections (DoC).
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, said he does not expect a court ruling on Friday.
The Medical Council of Thailand (MCT)'s affirmation of its resolution against three doctors may lead to further investigation, Mr Stithorn noted.
Despite Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin failing to endorse the MCT's decision, the MCT on Thursday stood by its move to suspend the licences of two doctors involved in the controversial transfer of Thaksin to the premium ward at the PGH, where he stayed for six months before being released on parole.
Thaksin, in effect, did not spend a single night in prison after being sentenced by the court.
According to Mr Stithorn, several people were involved in Thaksin's transfer and the extended hospital stay, so deeper scrutiny, such as the gathering of more evidence, would be required before the court could make a decision.
"Today's hearing will offer clues about how long the case will take and who else may be implicated [in the jail transfer] ... I don't anticipate an immediate decision that will send Thaksin to prison. That could trigger political turmoil," he said.
Mr Stithorn also said that significant political consequences are not expected after Friday's hearing.
He said Thaksin, meanwhile, has been actively making political moves, which speak about the true state of his health.
The former prime minister recently suggested that Pheu Thai should take control of the interior portfolio in a bid to consolidate power.
Thida Thavornseth, a political activist and former chair of the United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), formerly known as the red shirts, said that the outcome of the case will affect Pheu Thai because Thaksin is its de facto leader.
She said Thaksin should accept his fate and isolate himself from the party and his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, to spare them from any legal and political repercussions.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University's faculty of political science and law, said he believes the MCT's findings are likely to be considered by the court, but its decision could still be in Thaksin's favour.
If the court only finds doctors to be in the wrong in this case, Thaksin will be considered as someone who has done his time, he said.
However, if the court finds there was collusion to help Thaksin avoid actual jail, it may order Thaksin to serve his prison term.
"In the latter, Thaksin may ask to be detained at home because he is over 70. If this is allowed, it's convenient for him... he can still exert his influence over cabinet ministers," he said.
Jade Donavanik, a legal scholar, said that the MCT's resolution forms only a part of the legal proceedings because the case focuses on whether the DoC had properly enforced the sentence and followed the procedures.
"If the court finds that Thaksin wasn't seriously ill, how can his six-month stay at the PGH be in any shape or form an enforcement of the prison sentence," the scholar said.
Mr Jade echoed Mr Olarn's opinions about two possible scenarios in this case.
First, only doctors are found in the wrong for ethical violations, and if this is the case, Thaksin is off the hook. The other scenario is that Thaksin is considered as never having served the sentence in an actual prison, and he could face a sentence of more than one year.
Thaksin sought royal clemency, which led to his jail term being slashed from eight years initially to one year.
If he was determined to have planned or facilitated a plan to avoid spending time in jail, he might be deemed as being ineligible to have applied for the royal clemency in the first place, according to Mr Jade.
"So, it is possible he might have to go back to face the original eight years in jail," Mr Jade added.
