The United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, the epitome of the ultra-right, is likely to break apart due to irreconcilable internal conflict, with some observers predicting it may not even last until the next general election.
Another issue ahead of the cabinet reshuffle is that any attempt to remove the party leader, Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, now energy minister, and UTN secretary-general Akanat Promphan, who holds the post of industry minister, from cabinet will be no piece of cake, the academics said.
It is widely known the UTN Party was created as a single-purpose political vehicle, intended to extend Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha's tenure as prime minister in the 2023 general election.
Akanat: Accused of trying to oust leader
BORN OUT OF RIVARLY
From the outset, the party emerged amid tensions between the two influential military figures known as the "Two Ps" -- Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, leader of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), who also sought to be the party's prime ministerial candidate, and Gen Prayut, whose supporters were equally determined to push for another term as premier.
Due to their conflicting ambitions, Gen Prayut had to part ways with the PPRP. The UTN, which had been formed as a backup party, was then activated.
Key political allies of Gen Prayut, Mr Pirapan became party leader, and Mr Akanat, the adopted son of veteran political figure and former stalwart of the Democrat Party, Suthep Thaugsuban, took the role of secretary-general.
When it became clear Gen Prayut had split from the PPRP, it came as little surprise when the UTN listed him as its prime ministerial candidate, along with Mr Pirapan, in the 2023 election.
The split between the two Ps resulted in a fractured conservative bloc.
In the May 14, 2023 election, the PPRP came in 4th place with 40 MPs, and the UTN followed in 5th with 36 MPs -- a clear electoral failure for both parties.
Subsequently, Gen Prayut an- nounced his retirement from politics and was appointed Privy Councillor four months later.
Since the UTN failed to lead the conservative camp to a resounding poll victory, its sole reason for being formed, the party is now essentially "waiting to collapse", observers say.
Suchart: Wants top job after Akanat rift
INTERNAL CONFLICTS
Today, symptoms of a deep, internal fracture have manifested in UTN MPs splitting into two camps -- one led by Mr Pirapan and the other by Suchart Chomklin, its deputy leader and deputy commerce minister.
The tensions had been building for some time. Mr Pirapan was criticised for his lack of leadership, failure to address party problems, and favouritism.
Controversies followed, such as in Nakhon Si Thammarat in December last year, where disaster relief bags bore Mr Pirapan's name and ministerial title, leading to accusations of an ethical violation.
Political activist Sonthiya Sawasdee later filed a petition with the Election Commission (EC), requesting an investigation into whether Mr Pirapan had violated the constitution and the 2018 organic law on elections, citing his shares in four private companies -- another matter referred to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC).
Internal conflicts escalated further after the 2026 budget debate on May 31, when Mr Suchart signalled his intent to leave the party.
"The UTN might be comfortable and cosy for some, but not me. My mission here is done," Mr Suchart remarked.
Shortly after, a letter was submitted to Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, signed by 21 UTN MPs aligned with Mr Suchart, calling for a cabinet reshuffle.
The letter rebuked UTN ministers for incompetence and ethical concerns, referencing ongoing EC and NACC investigations. It warned of negative impacts on the government's image and public confidence.
The letter said: "We urge the prime minister to consider replacing all UTN ministers to bring about a more unified and effective governance during this critical time."
This rift widened further with public clashes between Mr Akanat and Mr Suchart.
Olarn: Internal conflict was inevitable
VERBAL WAR
The two squared off and began trading accusations -- Mr Suchart claimed Mr Akanat was trying to oust Mr Pirapan, while Mr Akanat vehemently denied this and alleged it is the Suchart group which had approached him with the idea of replacing the party leader.
Analysts have concluded the UTN is on the brink of a split. The only question is when and how.
The mudslinging and deep internal strife have reached a point of no return and the UTN's breakup could come soon, potentially during the upcoming cabinet reshuffle.
The key will be whether the Suchart's faction of 21 MPs will be allocated cabinet positions proportionate to their numbers or if Mr Pirapan and Mr Akanat can stay put in the cabinet, analysts said.
The turmoil also poses a dilemma for the ruling Pheu Thai Party and Ms Paetongtarn.
She must decide whether to retain both Mr Pirapan's and Suchart's factions in government and distribute cabinet seats accordingly, or back just one side. This decision will directly affect the government's stability.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's faculty of political science and law, frames UTN's split as structural rather than circumstantial.
Political parties are typically formed by people with shared ideals. The UTN, however, was born of conflict -- between Gen Prawit and Gen Prayut -- as a tool of the post-coup power structure.
Mr Olarn said the party's founders were military figures trying to rebrand themselves as democratic under the 2017 constitution, which was crafted to support their hold on power.
The UTN also attracted monopoly capitalists who saw business advantages and threw their support behind the party, anticipating political protection in return.
"When a party is built on mutual benefit and political bargaining -- not shared ideals -- conflict is inevitable.
"Once those benefits no longer align, a breakup is only natural. Ministers were appointed through bargaining, and when economic and personal interests clash, the cracks widen," the lecturer said.
FORECAST: SPLIT BEFORE NEXT ELECTION
Mr Olarn believes the UTN is unlikely to survive until the next election in two years' time. The verbal war between Mr Suchart and Mr Akanat is spiralling out of control, with the latter tipped to join the so-called New Opportunity Party.
On allegations that the signatures of the 21 MPs were forged, Mr Olarn doubts this is true, noting these MPs are well-known figures and no legal complaints have emerged -- suggesting instead a strategic power play.
Three MPs from Chumphon, whose names were initially reported to be among the 21 signatures, have since denied they had anything to do with the letter to the prime minister.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
With a cabinet reshuffle now imminent, Mr Olarn notes the government is doing all it can to maintain Pheu Thai's stability and consolidate power.
But dropping Mr Pirapan from the cabinet is easier said than done; not only does he represent the conservative base, but he also controls a massive right-wing alliance, he said.
Mr Akanat, despite the internal conflicts, is popular and tied to powerful political networks, including being the adopted son of Mr Suthep who formerly led the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) protests instrumental in the downfall of the Pheu Thai-led administration in 2014.
In the coming days or weeks, MPs aligned with Mr Suchart will likely make a decisive move -- either by formally leaving UTN or by withholding cabinet support if their faction is sidelined.
Ms Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai will need to quickly decide whether to salvage both factions through cabinet appointments or to back one side -- knowing that whichever faction is left out may rebel.
The stability of the coalition -- and its majority-- hinges on whether Pheu Thai calculates correctly.
In short, removing either Mr Pirapan or Mr Akanat could destabilise the ruling coalition, highlighting the weaknesses of the country's highly fractured coalition politics, where power is sustained by constant negotiation and compromise.