The political crisis has deepened as the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration faces growing pressure from the public and coalition partners in light of a leaked conversation between the prime minister and Cambodia's Senate President Hun Sen.
The leaked audio clip prompted the Bhumjaithai Party, the third-largest party with 69 MPs, to announce its departure from the coalition on Wednesday night, although its exit was widely anticipated after months of strained ties with Pheu Thai.
Bhumjaithai's pull-out dealt a heavy blow to the government. But tensions rose further when a faction within the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, which holds 36 MPs, demanded Pheu Thai replace the prime minister or it would follow suit and leave.
The Pheu Thai-led government is sliding into a crisis of confidence. The 17-minute audio clip has raised key questions, and chief among them whether the government can still move forward, and if so, how it plans to escape the political trap it faces.
Change of leadership
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science expert at Rangsit University, said Pheu Thai is under pressure from coalition partners who themselves face backlash from their own supporters. This makes it difficult for them to continue supporting Ms Paetongtarn's leadership.
The best way forward for the ruling party would be for Ms Paetongtarn to step down to make way for the party to nominate Chaikasem Nitisiri, the other prime ministerial candidate, for the post, he said.
While this move could also open the door for the party to invite Bhumjaithai back into the coalition, it would likely come at a cost, including the loss of key cabinet posts to compensate for the political misstep.
"Under this scenario, Pheu Thai would lose its bargaining power and be left with a few A-grade ministries. It may have to give up the defence portfolio and could retain some economic posts. The much-wanted interior post would also be unlikely due to public pressure," he said.
If Pheu Thai chooses not to change the prime minister, Ms Paetongtarn will still face allegations of ethical violations and even sedition over the leaked conversation. This could further damage the party's credibility, not only with the public but also with the military.
The prime minister will find it difficult to avoid taking responsibility by taking leave --something her father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, once did -- due to the growing political tension. Street protests and symbolic demonstrations could also escalate.
Mr Wanwichit said the military, whose image has improved, is unlikely to stage a coup under the current circumstances and be handed the problem when political solutions such as the prime minister's resignation remain available.
The military has likely assessed the situation and decided a coup would only play into the hands of Cambodia which could use it to its advantage at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the border dispute, he added.
"A cabinet reshuffle without the change of the prime minister won't work. The public will see it as a self-serving move and the pressure will be on coalition partners. The situation will force it," he said.
Mr Wanwichit also said the prime minister's handling of the Thai-Cambodia dispute has exposed her lack of political maturity and the failure of her advisers and political veterans to give her advice.
Her father, meanwhile, has been too involved, which has created an image problem for the government, he said, adding his current low profile driven by the controversy over his extended hospital stay only reinforces public perceptions the government is serving the Shinawatra family's interests rather than the national interest.
Wanwichit: Make way for Chaikasem
House dissolution unlikely
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's faculty of political science and law, said the government is being forced to choose between the premier stepping down and dissolving the House, with the latter seen as benefiting the People's Party (PP).
The conservative power bloc would likely pressure for Ms Paetongtarn's resignation to allow a conservative candidate, possibly from the Bhumjaithai Party or the UTN, to replace her, and Pheu Thai would be forced to support the conservative camp's candidate, he said.
He doubted Bhumjaithai would support the Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate due to their strained relations and said it remains to be seen how the ruling party will handle the situation, clearing the way for the conservative camp or dissolving the House.
If Pheu Thai refuses to give in to pressure to replace the prime minister, the party may use this moment to advance its controversial casino policy and make sure its campaign against "blue-affiliated" senators succeeds, he said.
Although military intervention remains a distant possibility, it could still happen if the Pheu Thai Party's attempts to hold on to power provoke widespread discontent, said Mr Olarn.
With eight cabinet seats now vacant following Bhumjaithai's departure, Mr Olarn said Pheu Thai will need to carefully reallocate portfolios among the remaining coalition partners to maintain stability and support.
While the party may regain control of the Interior Ministry, it risks public backlash if the new cabinet lineup is seen as self-serving, especially if it is used to push controversial initiatives such as the casino-entertainment complex or legal online gambling.
Mr Olarn said Pheu Thai must be aware of its waning popularity, and its primary objective appears to be advancing the casino project while weakening Bhumjaithai, which may face disbandment over alleged collusion in the Senate election to reduce competition.
"Bhumjaithai may try to beat at its own game by petitioning for the dissolution of the Pheu Thai Party," he said.
Olarn: House dissolution a boon for opposition
Turning point
Nipit Intarasombat, a former Democrat MP from Phatthalung, said the audio leak marks a clear turning point in politics though the full extent of the changes remains to be seen.
He discussed several possible scenarios such as whether Pheu Thai would hand over leadership to another party. In his view, dissolving the House would be the most strategic option for Pheu Thai after weighing political costs.
Mr Nipit said that despite Pheu Thai showing strong interest in reclaiming the Interior Ministry, its primary focus appears to be on pushing the controversial casino-entertainment complex project.
He suspected the issue might be the centre of political tensions between the party and Bhumjaithai. Combating drug problems does not necessarily require control of the Interior Ministry because the prime minister has other means to implement the drug policy, he said.
The government could remain in office a few months after the 2026 budget bill is passed but the hardest part now is to keep the coalition intact.
"Bhumjaithai's exit frees up ministerial seats that can be used to satisfy other partners. But the thin majority government will be tested by Bhumjaithai, which has extensive political networks at its disposal," he said.
Nipit: Questions focus on casino bill
Eroding public trust
Thanet Charoenmuang, a lecturer at the faculty of political science at Chiang Mai University, said the leaked audio clip reflects a long-standing and complex relationship between the Shinawatra family and Hun Sen.
While informal communication between the two sides has been common, the release of a private conversation is inappropriate and has damaged the government's image, he said.
"Their close ties make communication easy, but in diplomatic terms, the contents are never made public. The clip has now turned into a political issue," he said.
He said the Cambodian government may have released the recording to deflect attention from its own domestic problems and to stir nationalistic sentiment by creating tension with Thailand.
The Pheu Thai-led government itself faces many challenges ranging from slow economic policy implementation to public scepticism about the controversial entertainment complex project.
The Bhumjaithai Party has seized an opportunity to withdraw from the government, and its move could be part of a long-term strategy to reposition the party and boost its popularity ahead of the next elections, he said.
However, he believed Pheu Thai has its own plan to handle this, and by taking over the Interior Ministry, which oversees local administrative bodies, the party can strengthen its electoral base.
Even after Bhumjaithai's exit, Mr Thanet pointed out that the government still holds a majority in the House and several smaller parties are expected to continue backing it. However, he admitted that public confidence is fading.
Thanet: Audio clip 'a political issue'