The Pheu Thai-led government faces turbulence and is bracing for legal battles as the Bhumjaithai Party, ousted from the coalition, joins the opposition bloc.
The Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration is facing mounting instability following the withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai Party from the ruling coalition.
The split follows the emergence of an audio clip featuring a conversation between Ms Paetongtarn and Hun Sen, president of the Cambodian Senate, which has triggered a crisis of confidence in the government.
Despite the controversy, Ms Paetongtarn has opted to press ahead with governing, choosing neither to resign nor dissolve parliament. This decision sets the stage for an increasingly fraught political landscape.
A source within Pheu Thai says the government acknowledges it is heading into a challenging political period. Nevertheless, the source sees some advantages to Bhumjaithai's exit.
"Without Bhumjaithai, we can work with peace of mind. There are no more insincere partners or internal obstacles," the source said.
"Many issues can now progress more smoothly. For example, we have long opposed the cannabis decriminalisation policy, but we were unable to act because of coalition constraints. Now, we are free to implement our policies as planned."
Opposition pressure
Despite some internal relief, the Pheu Thai-led government is bracing for severe external challenges. The most immediate concern is obstructive tactics from the opposition, which is expected to contest nearly every legislative initiative.
"We're already seeing signs of this, such as the anticipated motion for a no-confidence debate," the party source said. "This is only the beginning."
In addition, uncertainty surrounds the cohesion of the newly restructured coalition. Without Bhumjaithai, the remaining coalition parties will need to prove their unity and ability to cooperate effectively.
"There are doubts about how well the new partners can communicate or maintain alignment. If internal rifts emerge, it could further weaken the government," the source warned.
Beyond the lower house, the administration also expects big hurdles in the Senate. Any legislation requiring bicameral approval may face delays or outright rejection.
"In the months ahead, any matter requiring passage through parliament or endorsement by the Senate is likely to encounter serious resistance," the source said.
Senate resistance expected
The most pressing issue facing the administration is the passage of the fiscal year 2026 budget bill. While Pheu Thai is confident it can secure approval in the House of Representatives, concerns remain over its fate in the Senate.
"If the Senate, which remains largely aligned with the blue bloc, chooses to reject the bill and sends it back to the House, we will reaffirm our stance and resubmit it," a party source explained.
The so-called "blue" bloc, a reference to Bhumjaithai, is said to be the largest by far of the three factions in the Upper House.
The source said such a move by the Senate would draw public scrutiny, as the national budget is a matter of public interest.
"We believe the Senate would hesitate to block the bill outright. But if they do, we will turn to the public and rely on civil pressure to respond to such an unprecedented act."
Beyond the budget bill, concerns loom large over the broader legislative agenda.
Sources in Pheu Thai say nearly all proposed legislation -- whether minor or major -- now faces heightened scrutiny and the possibility of obstruction.
"Even small bills are cause for concern. As for more contentious proposals, such as the Entertainment Complex project, we expect fierce opposition," the source said.
The government now anticipates a more cautious and disciplined approach to parliamentary work.
"Our legislative efforts will need to be meticulous and adhere to parliamentary procedures. We are particularly concerned about the risk of House sessions collapsing due to lack of quorum."
Legal warfare
Pheu Thai insiders warn the government is entering a phase of intensified conflict, with legal mechanisms increasingly being used as tools of political sabotage -- referred to as "legal warfare".
"We anticipate more aggressive tactics. Politics will become more confrontational, and the government must proceed cautiously," the source said. "At the same time, we must have the courage to act and push forward policies that deliver real results."
The passing of the budget bill is viewed as a milestone. "If we can get through that, it would indicate the government can continue. But if the government falls, it will be due to relentless efforts from multiple fronts -- particularly from independent agencies, including the judiciary and anti-corruption bodies."
The source expressed concern over potential court rulings that may suspend Ms Paetongtarn from her duties, particularly over the leaked audio clip.
"Such a development would unquestionably damage the government's credibility. Even with an acting prime minister, the perception of instability would take a toll."
Under such uncertainty, the government may be unable to implement key policies, weakening its effectiveness and public confidence.
"It would be like governing without a real prime minister. The country would suffer. Public support would waver. Protests might gain traction. The government's immunity to political pressure would collapse, opening the door to further crises."
Chaikasem as successor?
Should the government prove unable to proceed, a House dissolution may be the only viable exit. A decisive factor could be adverse rulings from independent institutions.
"In the worst-case scenario, if the prime minister is removed from office and coalition partners decide to continue governing, the only acceptable successor from within Pheu Thai would be Chaikasem Nitisiri," the source said.
Mr Chaikasem, is the third and final prime ministerial candidate of Pheu Thai.
With Srettha Thavisin already having been removed from office and Ms Paetongtarn facing a similar risk of being ousted, with several petitions seeking her removal pending, the only option for Pheu Thai appears to be Mr Chaikasem, who will turn 77 in August.
"There would be no support for appointing a prime minister from another party. If that option fails, then a House dissolution would be inevitable," the source said.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Institute for Political and Policy Analysis, has outlined key threats facing the Pheu Thai-led government following Bhumjaithai Party's withdrawal from the coalition.
Thanaporn: Warns of legal warfare
"The most visible and immediate threat is legal warfare," he said.
"This is largely driven by senators who, under the constitution, have broad authority to scrutinise the prime minister and the cabinet on virtually any matter."
He highlighted the controversy surrounding Ms Paetongtarn's conversation with Hun Sen as the gravest current issue.
Mr Thanaporn has raised additional concerns regarding Bhumjaithai's potential political manoeuvring following its withdrawal from the coalition.
He warned that the party may not only seek to recruit MPs ahead of future elections but also engage in strategic short-term "vote-swaying" tactics.
"It's not just about attracting MPs to join the party formally for the next election," he said.
"We must also consider the possibility of temporary alignments -- such as during a no-confidence debate."
He suggested that unexpected absences or coordinated withdrawals of MPs during crucial votes could significantly destabilise the coalition government.
"Imagine if five or 10 government MPs suddenly fall ill on the day of a key no-confidence vote. Or if five to 10 Pheu Thai MPs are absent during the passage of a vital financial bill -- what would happen then?"
Court process explained
Jaran Pakditanakul, a former charter court judge, has outlined the legal process surrounding the petition related to the controversial audio clip between Ms Paetongtarn and Hun Sen.
Jaran: No immediate threat to PM
He said that, at present, the process is still in its preliminary stage. The petition has been submitted to the court via the Senate Speaker.
However, the panel of Constitutional Court judges has not yet decided whether to formally accept the case for adjudication.
Mr Jaran said that during the court meeting called for July 1, there are three possible outcomes: the court may vote to accept the petition for immediate consideration; it may request further information from involved parties before deciding whether to accept the case; or it may vote to dismiss the petition outright.
All decisions require a majority vote from the nine sitting judges.
Mr Jaran said that even if the court decides to accept the petition, this does not automatically result in the temporary suspension of the prime minister.
"This differs from cases under the Supreme Court involving violations of ethical standards as raised by the National Anti Corruption Commission," he said.
"Although the current case touches on ethical considerations, it does not directly fall under the category of a serious breach of ethical conduct that would trigger automatic suspension.
็However, Mr Jaran also raised concern over growing public discourse that characterises legal proceedings as "lawfare" (legal warfare), particularly in reference to petitions submitted under constitutional provisions.
The former Constitutional Court judge said he felt uneasy and believed it was unfair for society to use such terminology in a way that implies the court lacks impartiality or is politically motivated.
"It is unjust to use this term in a way that suggests the court is not acting with integrity," he said.