The Pheu Thai-led government is again under pressure to put on hold the controversial entertainment complex bill after Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat indicated the bill needs to be reviewed by the newly formed cabinet before proceeding with it further.
Originally approved by the cabinet on March 27 following revisions by the Council of State, the bill, proposed by the Ministry of Finance, is regarded as a centrepiece of the government's economic policy.
The proposed integrated entertainment complexes which would include legal casinos are projected to attract investment worth 119–283 billion baht annually, boost foreign tourist arrivals by 5–10% and reduce the dependency on seasonal tourism.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has repeatedly defended the policy, which was declared in her government's policy statement upon taking office. The bill was fast-tracked for parliamentary debate before the last session ended in April, but was shelved amid mounting opposition.
Ms Paetongtarn insisted the bill had not been withdrawn, but she said there were more urgent issues such as the United States' reciprocal tariff measures to focus on.
The draft legislation was initially scheduled to top the House agenda on July 9, ahead of four political amnesty and reconciliation bills. However, comments by Mr Julapun last week suggested it may be postponed or even dropped.
Yuttaporn: No room for missteps
Tactical retreat?
Political analysts view the government's move to postpone deliberation or withdraw the bill as a strategic move amid intensifying public and political pressure.
The current political situation draws comparisons to the political crisis that followed the Yingluck Shinawatra administration's passage of the amnesty bill in late 2013.
Yuttaporn Isarachai, a political scientist from Sukhothaithammathirat University, said the casino-entertainment complex policy is not off the table, but the political climate leaves no room for missteps.
With the Thai-Cambodian border tension, economic slowdown, the slim majority due to the Bhumjaithai Party's withdrawal, the ruling party must reduce risks and defuse tension, he said.
"The casino-entertainment complex policy is divisive among parties and the public, so pulling it out is a strategic move. Still, I believe the government won't abandon the project which is intended to stimulate the economy," he said.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's Faculty of Political Science and Law, said there are two reasons behind the delay.
First, the government has a slim majority after Bhumjaithai exited the coalition over the leaked audio clip between Prime Minister Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.
Olarn: Govt eyes public sentiment
Also, the Prachachat Party, a coalition partner which has support base in the three southern border provinces, has opposed the bill on religious grounds. Other partners such as the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party and Democrat Party may have to weigh the political costs of supporting the bill.
Second, public discontent over the government's handling of the Thai-Cambodia territorial dispute is gaining momentum, he said, adding protests against the casino-entertainment policy could gain even more traction if the bill proceeds.
When the bill was first placed on the House agenda earlier this year, it sparked protests led by the Network of Students and People for Reform of Thailand (NSPRT). Though the demonstrations subsided after the session ended in April, public sentiment against the bill remains.
Mr Olarn said the government might wait for public sentiments to cool off before reviving the bill, but he noted it could be wishful thinking as protests seem to be increasingly justified.
The analyst said the opposition People's Party (PP), which has expressed interest in legalising gambling, would likely distance itself from the casino bill for now and focus on the amnesty proposal, which serves its political interests.
"If the PP and Pheu Thai share the belief that the old power bloc is aiming to topple Thaksin and Ms Paetongtarn, they may form an alliance for long-term goals and eventually realign on the bill.
"But for now, Pheu Thai must survive the fragile coalition and avoid inflaming street protests," he said.
Deeper Dive podcast: Legalising casinos
Fears of legal gambling
Government spokesman Jirayu Huangsap said the bill underwent four rounds of public hearings. The final round was held from Feb 28 to March 14 with 71,289 participants.
Of the total respondents, about 80%, or 57,000 people, expressed support for the bill.
Despite these figures, the network of anti-gambling advocates remains sceptical due to weak law enforcement.
They are also worried the bill could be altered during the examination and the final version could be far worse than the one proposed by the Finance Ministry.
Thanakorn Khomkrit, secretary-general of the Stop Gambling Foundation, said the group wants the bill withdrawn entirely, not merely postponed. If the government strengthens its majority in the future, the bill could be brought back.
Under the current charter, the bill will remain on the House agenda unless it is formally withdrawn or parliament is dissolved, or the House completes its full term. As long as the bill has not yet passed its first reading, it can be dropped only under those conditions.
However, if the bill passes its first reading, deliberation can resume within six months of the first parliamentary session.
Mr Thanakorn raised concern over regulatory loopholes and inadequate safeguards, saying they offer no guarantee that the government will be able to control casino operations. He also feared the bill could pave way for legalising online gambling.
"At the moment, online gambling isn't discussed. But who knows when it might sneak in later," he said.
Despite his group's stance against the casino bill, Mr Thanakorn said the group's objection is issue-specific and they have no plan to join the anti-government protests.
Revised draft
The bill, revised by the Council of State, included major changes in four areas.
First, the prime minister and the interior minister are jointly responsible for enforcing the law. Previously, this role was solely assigned to the prime minister.
Second, the policy committee is empowered to review and make recommendations on key issues for cabinet consideration including designated zones for entertainment complexes.
Third, the policy committee will appoint the director of the entertainment complex office, without requiring prior cabinet approval.
Fourth, the policy committee must present a detailed policy framework to the cabinet and this includes the number of licences to be issued, designated areas for entertainment complexes, investment plans and safeguards for social impacts.
The Council of State also introduced new regulations including a 10% cap on casino operations, classification of licensed operators as financial institutions subject to the anti-money laundering laws, mandatory deposits of no less than 50 million baht for at least six consecutive months for Thai nationals to be allowed to gamble in the entertainment complexes.
Thanakorn: No plan to join protests
