Asean foreign ministers gathered in Laos on Wednesday as the group seeks to advance a stalled bid to resolve a crisis in Myanmar and cool tensions in the South China Sea, days ahead of a gathering of top diplomats from the world’s biggest powers.
The meeting will be followed by two summits in Vientiane on Saturday that will be attended by foreign mnisters from the United States, the European Union, Japan, China, Russia and more.
Ministers from the 10-country bloc will discuss so far fruitless efforts to end a crippling conflict that has morphed into a civil war in military-run Myanmar that the United Nations says has displaced 2.6 million people.
Asean’s biggest members — Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia — are frustrated by the junta’s unwillingness to honour its commitment to dialogue, which has tested the bloc’s credibility and the viability of a peace plan agreed on just months after the 2021 coup.
It is unclear what progress, if any, Laos has made as chair of the bloc in furthering predecessor Indonesia’s outreach to Myanmar’s generals and its armed opposition. Myanmar will be represented at the talks by a senior official.
Sidharto Suryodipuro, a senior Indonesian foreign ministry official, said the issue was complex and would take time to resolve, with Laos active in trying to forge peace.
“Diplomatic efforts can’t finish overnight,” he told a briefing last week.
“Progress is working slowly … those efforts are done discreetly. Under the Laos chairmanship, the special envoy is approaching many parties.”
Tensions at sea
Asean is also expected to push for the finalisation of a code of conduct with Beijing on the South China Sea. That idea was first floated in 2002 and talks began in 2017, but participants are still haggling over conditions for negotiating its contents.
There is renewed urgency amid persistent confrontations between Beijing and the Philippines around disputed reefs inside Manila’s exclusive economic zone, with Manila and Washington accusing China’s coast guard of hostile actions.
China has insisted Philippine vessels are encroaching on its sovereign territory and has accused Manila of deliberate provocations. The two countries recently said they had reached an "understanding" about missions in the area but it is not clear how well it will hold up in practice.
The Philippine delegation in Laos will propose the creation of an Asean Coast Guard Forum to enable dialogue and law enforcement, according to its senior diplomat Theresa Lazaro, a plan likely to upset China.
Indonesia is hopeful that a code of conduct can be concluded by 2026. Some security analysts doubt a binding or enforceable text can be achieved, however, with some Asean states insisting it be based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
China says it backs a code, but does not recognise a 2016 arbitral ruling that said its claim to most of the South China Sea had no basis under UNCLOS, to which Beijing is a signatory.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will use the gathering in Laos to press for international law to be adhered to in the South China Sea, a conduit for $3 trillion in annual trade, during summits that will include Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
They will be joined by counterparts from Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and Russia, among others, at Saturday’s East Asia Summit and the security-focused Asean Regional Forum.
The summits are expected to discuss issues such as the war in Gaza, the conflict in Ukraine, food security, climate change, trade protectionism and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.