Tens of thousands of Chinese citizens in the Philippines to help run offshore gambling services stand to lose their work visas by mid-October, as the Southeast Asian country looks to uproot the industry by year's end under growing scrutiny from both Beijing and Manila.
Foreign nationals who work for Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (Pogos) were told to cancel their work visas voluntarily by October. Otherwise, Manila is set to do so for any foreigners enmeshed in such operations, according to a Tuesday report by Philippine digital media firm Rappler.
Analysts said many - if not most - visa holders working for Pogos come from China and work alongside Filipinos as well as citizens of third countries.
More than 300,000 Chinese workers were employed by Pogos at the industry's height, but official estimates put the number of those legally employed in the sector this year closer to half that amount.
Both Chinese and Philippine officials frown on the operations due to the suspected criminal acts they engender, a rare point of agreement between the two as sovereignty disputes rage over the South China Sea.
"I think China is opposed to such online gambling, especially if operating outside China with a penetration among the Chinese population," said Victor Gao, vice-president of the Beijing-based think tank Centre for China and Globalisation.
Citizens who stand to lose their Philippine visas are probably providing capital, offering technical expertise or tracking people down to collect gambling debts, Gao said. "You're talking about a huge dark side."
In Manila, the government's Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation said on its website in July that the country would "wind down" offshore gaming firms by the end of 2024.
China has urged the Philippines to nix the operations and said it would cooperate with authorities in Manila to reach that goal.
"The Chinese government is striking hard against Chinese citizens who travel overseas to gamble, including offshore gambling and other online gambling," the Chinese Embassy in Manila said on its website in July.
"The Philippine offshore gaming industry breeds vicious crimes and seriously harms the interests of the two peoples."
Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte and current President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr have tolerated Pogos because some operators do legal business in the Philippines, said Eduardo Araral, associate professor at the National University of Singapore's public policy school.
These "legitimate" operations create jobs, occupy otherwise vacant buildings and pay taxes, he said. Some Chinese operators have combined their gaming services with above-ground hotels and resorts.
The prevalence of Pogos picked up after 2019 when Cambodia banned online gambling, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. The American think tank said gambling operations in Cambodia were the recipients of heavy investments by Chinese nationals.
Illegal operations, however, now "create trouble for the government" in the Philippines, Araral said. "They don't pay taxes, they engage in human smuggling and they have their own police."
The Philippine Bureau of Immigration said in July it had arrested a Chinese man who was already wanted by authorities in China for trafficking other citizens to work for online gaming establishments in the Philippines.
Chinese who lose their Philippine visas are likely to seek work in casinos, real estate or other businesses in Southeast Asia, as they already "understand" the region, said Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.