The growing economies of South and Southeast Asia need to shift from their current carbon-intensive energy path to renewable sources to fuel economic growth and promote sustainable development while avoiding life-threatening pollution and environmental degradation, according to the research institute Climate Analytics.
South and Southeast Asian nations are among the world's most vulnerable to climate change impacts, some of which are already being acutely felt at the current level of warming at 1 degree Celsius. Scientific research shows that these impacts will accelerate, endangering lives and sustainable development even at 2C warming unless all governments act to reduce emissions to keep within the 1.5C limit of the Paris Agreement.
Meanwhile, renewable energy is now cheaper than fossil-fuelled generation in most of the world. Renewables also offer a faster and cheaper way to increase access to affordable clean energy for millions of people, says Berlin-based Climate Analytics.
"By decarbonising their energy systems, South and Southeast Asian countries can make a fundamental difference in global efforts to limit warming to 1.5C, in line with the Paris Agreement, and will reap large economic and sustainable development benefits by doing so," said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics and co-author of the report.
The report covering seven countries -- India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines -- is the first to apply the insights from last year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on the 1.5˚C warming limit. It shows how Asia's energy systems can make the transition to zero carbon, in line with the Paris Agreement.
"The 1.5C limit means greatly reduced risk of drought and water stress in South and Southeast Asia, which would contribute to achieving zero hunger, good health and wellbeing, and clean water and sanitation," said Fahad Saeed, a climate scientist at Climate Analytics and the report's co-authors.
"It would also reduce the risk of flooding for large numbers of people living in coastal regions, as well as extreme heat that can otherwise reach intolerable levels for human health and labour productivity, particularly in densely populated cities in South Asia."
According to the study, the share of zero-carbon electricity generation needs to reach at least 50% in 2030 and 100% by 2050. Coal would need to be phased out of electricity generation by 2040.
"Plans for major new coal deployment in [South and Southeast Asia]alone could put the Paris Agreement objectives out of reach and undermine sustainable development goals, given that countries in South and Southeast Asia account for half of the world's planned coal power expansion," said another co-author, Paola Yanguas Parra.
India, Vietnam and Indonesia alone make up over 30% of planned global coal expansion.
An important share of these coal development plans comes from emerging Asian economies that have not depended heavily on coal-fired electricity in the past. These include Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia, which together account for over 13% of planned coal expansion globally.
These countries will need to urgently consider reversing their current trend of expanding coal-fired generating capacity, and instead direct all new energy supply investment to renewables, to reduce the risk of stranded assets as well as enhance sustainable development.
South and Southeast Asia have vast and largely untapped renewable energy resources, Climate Analytics notes. And costs for renewables and energy storage technologies continue to fall: the average cost of many renewables was already in the same range as fossil fuels in 2016, even without accounting for external costs such as health and the environmental impacts of fossil fuels.
The study finds that the highest potential to deliver zero-carbon electricity, followed by wind. Researchers estimate that covering just 1.5% of the territory in each of the seven countries with solar installations could satisfy the combined electricity consumption in both regions 13 times over.
South and Southeast Asia nations have also made headway in other forms of renewable energy resources other than wind and solar. Hydropower is another viable renewable energy resource, especially with three Southeast Asian countries ranked in the top ten for the highest hydropower potential. Geothermal energy is also expected to supply 20% of Southeast Asia's entire electric grid's energy in a 100% renewable energy based scenario. Southeast Asia is also known to produce over 120 million tonnes of biomass residue.
Between 2000 and 2016, the overall electricity generated from renewable sources in both regions grew on average by 5.5% per year; but electricity demand outpaced it at 6% growth per year. Large-scale expansion of renewables, especially solar and wind, can fully meet the growing electricity demand in these dynamically developing nations.
Looking at government policy, the report suggests changing the pricing of fossil fuels through carbon pricing, as well as high upfront grants and interest-free loans to accelerate investments in renewables.
Renewable energy sources could also lead to more joint initiatives involving Asean and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The report sees opportunities for electricity trade and also for the development of a regional power grid.
The low-cost, distributed character of renewables means that renewable energy systems is the cheapest and most reliable way to bring modern energy to millions of people in Asia who still lack access, so lifting communities out of poverty, creating employment and fuelling economic growth.
Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change & Development (ICCCAD) in Bangladesh, said that although his country was a very small emitter of greenhouse gases, as it takes steps to become climate resilient, it should still try to avoid locking in dependence on fossil fuels.
"Flood-prone Bangladesh is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to adverse impacts of rising temperatures. According to a recent study, it faces the prospect of coping with a staggering 10 million internal migrants due to climate change," he said. "This report makes it clear that a cleaner pathway is possible for Bangladesh."
Shafqat Kakakhel, chairman of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Pakistan, said his country must make determined and sustained efforts to achieve decarbonisation of its energy sector. This would require abandoning plans for coal-fired power plants.
"Pakistan should, instead, exploit its enormous clean energy potential, including hydro, solar and wind," he said.