Joint committee’s GDP forecast range dips below 3% growth

Joint committee’s GDP forecast range dips below 3% growth

Predee Daochai, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, speaks to the press on Wednesday. (Photo supplied)
Predee Daochai, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, speaks to the press on Wednesday. (Photo supplied)

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has taken a more pessimistic view by cutting its forecast range for Thailand’s full-year economic growth, with the lower end now below the 3% mark.

The committee downgraded its economic outlook to a band of 2.9-3.3% from 3.7-4% predicted earlier,  Predee Daochai, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, said.

The latest revision is in response to the impact on Thai exports of the US-China trade war, he said. The  JSCCIB also slashed its view of the country’s outbound shipment growth to a range of 1% growth to a 1% contraction.

Thailand’s GDP grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, down from a revised 3.6% in the fourth quarter of last year and the slowest pace in 17 quarters.

Customs-cleared exports fell by 5.8% year-on-year in May to US$21.01 billion after contracting 2.6% in April and 4.9% in March. For the first five months, exports shrank 2.7%. 

Although the country’s export growth is expected to pick up in the second half this year due to a low-base effect, the rebound pace could be slow amid mounting global uncertainties resulting from trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, Mr Predee said.

He also has a firming bias on the baht for the rest of the year on the back of the US Federal Reserve’s dovish signals.


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