The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts the economy will expand at a faster pace in the second half than the 2.6% growth in the first, partly propelled by the government's stimulus package.
The stimulus measures worth 316 billion baht, representing 1.8% of GDP, should boost the economic growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points this year, said AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor.
The office is reviewing its forecast on economic growth this year.
In May AMRO predicted economic growth of 3.8% for 2019, but circumstances changed from June to August and it plans to spend more time revising its outlook.
Apart from the stimulus package, monetary policy is another key instrument to bolster Thai economic growth, he said. The Bank of Thailand still has policy space to manoeuvre to support growth, like its counterparts in the region.
The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee surprisingly cut its policy rate by 25 basis points this month amid global monetary policy easing.
The Asean+3 region remains resilient against the backdrop of global uncertainties, mainly because of the US-China trade tension, said Hoe Ee Khor. The research house cut GDP growth of Asean+3 during 2019-2020 from an earlier estimate of 5.1% to 4.9%, with 4.7% in a worst-case scenario.
The region's long-term growth prospects remain positive, he said.
Domestic demand should play a greater role driving economic expansion in the region, including for Thailand, said Hoe Ee Khor.
Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit plans to call a meeting of the Joint Public and Private Sector Consultative Committee on Commerce on Monday to discuss export stimulus measures and how to boost shipments, particularly for high-potential items in the remaining months.
"On Aug 26, we will discuss which export items in the agricultural, industrial and service sectors should be ramped up during the rest of the year," he said.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Bank Thai economist Tim Leelahaphan said his bank trimmed its economic growth forecast for Thailand to 3% from 3.3% earlier to reflect disappointing growth in the first half and persistent headwinds.
"Despite the downward revision to our 2019 forecast, we expect second-half growth to improve from a weak 2.6% in the first half. Coordinated policy easing in the form of interest rate cuts and an imminent fiscal stimulus package should support growth from the late third quarter, along with a low base for exports and tourism. Stimulus measures implemented in past years have proved effective in shoring up the economy," he said.