More Chinese manufacturers are looking to Thailand as a production base to avoid US tariffs, based on trends in demand for industrial estates here.
WHA Corporation, the top provider of such estates in Thailand, said it expects Chinese companies to account for as much as half of its land sale contracts both this year and next, up from 12% in 2018. The firm also develops industrial parks in Vietnam.
"People are moving some production," said David Nardone, the group executive for WHA's industrial development unit. "It will be a significant impact for Thailand and Vietnam. A drop of water for China can be a flood for us because of the different size of the economies."
Thailand has rolled out incentives including tax breaks to woo manufacturers seeking to skirt the tariffs the US and China have imposed on each other. Recent evidence suggests rival Vietnam has pulled ahead in the race to lure producers.
For instance, more than three times as many companies are planning to relocate or divert production from China to Vietnam than to Thailand, according to research by Nomura Holdings Inc.
At the same time, the value of net foreign direct investment applications to Thailand from Chinese firms is surging. Value rose five-fold in the first half of 2019 compared with a year earlier, Thailand Board of Investment data shows.
Chinese and Hong Kong applications combined were worth about $1 billion, second in value only to Japan, whose firms have long manufactured in Thailand.
WHA expects to add six industrial parks to its current roster of 10 in Thailand and has begun selling space in its estate in Vietnam.
Mr Nardone doesn't see Thailand and Vietnam as competitors, saying each has strengths and weaknesses. It takes a long time to set up plants in Vietnam, while Thailand has a labour shortage, he said.
Manufacturers appear to be moving only a slice of production out of China given the size of its market, he said.
WHA's shares have climbed about 8% this year, exceeding the 4.6% rise in Thailand's benchmark SET index of equities. Ten of 11 analysts recommend the stock as a buy, with one rating it as a sell.
Thai officials have said companies including Sony Corporation, Sharp Corporation and Harley-Davidson Inc are moving some manufacturing to the country. They are hopeful foreign direct investment will help revive the export-led economy. Bloomberg