The Thai stock market eked out a gain in 2019, up 1.02%, as a slew of negative concerns such as the US-China trade spat, Brexit uncertainty and the stuttering local economy dampened sentiment.
Still, foreign investors' sell-off of local shares put pressure on the bourse. Those investors cashed out a net 44.8 billion baht on the year.
Although the stock market didn't have a stellar run in 2019, returns of the 10 best performers ranged from just shy of doubling to nearly tripling, suggesting that local equities remained a bonanza for those who picked the right stocks.
The top 10 gainers were engaged in diversified sectors, including insurance brokering, energy drinks, auto lending, power generation, mobile phones and device distribution.
At the other end of the scale, the biggest laggards were all penny stocks and shed share price from a range of 58-82%.
Top gainers
TQM Corporation Plc (TQM), a broker for both life and non-life insurance, showed the biggest surge among SET-listed firms in 2019, with a 193% gain to close the market at 66 baht.
Despite the floundering economy, the company, which listed on the stock market in December 2018, delivered a 29% rise in net profit to 365 million baht for the first nine months of the year.
Carabao Group Plc (CBG), an energy drink manufacturer under Carabao Dang brand, was second, gaining 173% to 84 baht.
It was a stellar year for CBG in 2019, given its net profit more than doubled to 1.7 billion baht for the nine months through September from 645 million over the same period a year before.
Amanah Leasing Plc (AMANAH), an auto lender and auto title loan service provider, was third on the list. Its share price rocketed 146% to 3.16 baht at the end of 2019.
Jay Mart Plc (JMart), a mobile phone distributor, jumped 122% to 8.35 baht, while its subsidiary JMT Network Services Plc (JMT) was eighth, adding 81.8% to 20 baht.
Com7 Plc (COM7), a distributor of IT products including laptops, mobile phones and tablets, was fifth in 2019, surging 102% to 26.50.
Gulf Energy Development Plc (GULF), which is 35.4% owned by the richest man in the stock market last year, according to Money and Banking magazine -- Sarath Ratanavadi -- was sixth.
Its share price soared 101% to 166 baht and 268% above its initial public offering (IPO) price offered two years ago of 45 baht.
GULF also had the 10th highest trade volume in terms of value in 2019.
B.Grimm Power Plc (BGRIM) chalked up 89.2% to 52.50 baht last year.
The power-generating firm saw its share price surge 228% from its IPO price of 16 baht. The company listed on the SET in July 2017.
Srisawad Finance Plc (BFIT) was ninth, advancing 79.4% to 31.75 baht.
GMM Grammy Plc (GRAMMY), an entertainment firm, was the 10th best performing stock, jumping 79% to 10.30 baht.
Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, executive vice-president of Asia Plus Securities, said the top 10 performers of the year were high-growth stocks that managed to deliver improved revenue and net profit.
High-growth stocks that can maintain their outstanding performance have good business models and investment stories, he said.
However, Mr Therdsak warned the share prices and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of the top gainers are relatively high following the recent rallies.
"The share prices of the high-growth stocks today have already factored in their future value, so they need to keep growing to avoid a price drop if there is lower than expected growth," he said.
Biggest losers
Pace Development Corporation Plc (PACE), a loss-making property developer, was the worst performing stock, as 82.1% of its share price was wiped out in the year, finishing at 0.07 baht.
Pace, also the owner of gourmet grocer Dean & DeLuca, defaulted on 2.6 billion baht of debt owed to Siam Commercial Bank in October.
The default came weeks after Dean & DeLuca closed its flagship store in New York as well as some outlets in Bangkok.
The company reported a net loss of 1.65 billion baht for the nine months through September, compared with 4.97 billion a year earlier.
PP Prime Plc (PPPM), a maker and distributor of aquatic animal feed, was the second biggest laggard, sliding 79.4% in 2019.
The company defaulted on payment for its debentures worth 580 million baht in July.
Beauty Community Plc (BEAUTY), a retail distributor of cosmetics and skincare products, plummeted 76.3% to 1.68 baht, while Thai Film Industries Plc (TFI), a leading biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) film manufacturer, shed 72% to 0.07 baht.
CPL Group Plc (CPL), a leather tannery company, tumbled 68.8% to 0.90 baht. NFC Plc (NFC), a manufacturer and distributor of chemical fertiliser, saw its share price dip 65.1% last year to finish at 2.04 baht. Premier Enterprise Plc (PE) plunged 65% to 0.07 baht and TRC Construction Plc (TRC) dipped 64.9% to 0.12 baht.
Seafresh Industry Plc (CFRESH), a frozen shrimp manufacturer and exporter, lost almost 63% to 1.52 baht, and Thai Rubber Latex Group Plc (TRUBB) dropped 58.6% to 0.63 baht.
The share prices of these stocks plummeted as they failed to deliver earnings growth, recorded net losses or suffered a liquidity crunch, Mr Therdsak said. Investors should closely monitor or reduce their investments in these equities until they turn a corner, he said.
Trading value
Three out of the 10 stocks with the highest trading value were concentrated in the energy and utilities sector, two were in banking, and one each in petrochemicals and chemicals, construction materials, transport and logistics, commerce, and information and communication technology (ICT).
The national oil and gas conglomerate PTT Plc (PTT) was the most actively traded stock, with turnover of 543 billion baht. CP All Plc (CPALL) was second at 481 billion baht worth of trading value, followed by Airports of Thailand Plc (AOT) at 420 billion, PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP) at 341 billion and Kasikornbank (KBank) at 335 billion.
Market outlook
Mr Therdsak expects the SET index will continue to move sideways in 2020, hovering around 1,600 points because of the prevailing global economic slowdown, uncertainties from trade tensions, mounting domestic political risks, as well as tepid consumption and private investment.
High-growth stocks with constant dividend payments are recommended, while investors should shun property funds and real estate investment trusts after their prices surged 20-30% in 2019, he said.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) said the economy is expected to modestly recover, but remain far below its growth potential.
"We should not hope for fund inflows this year. In 2020, we forecast the SET will reach 1,720 points, assuming earnings per share growth of 9.5%, recovering from a low base in 2019, and a PE of 17 times. The predicted SET index offers an upside of 9%, which is as attractive as in 2016-17," the brokerage house said.
However, some stocks are undervalued, and the healthcare, commerce, agro-industrial and food, finance, ICT and contractor sectors are its top picks.
FSS is also bullish on tourism in 2020, anticipating foreign tourist arrivals will reach a fresh record of 41.8 million, up 4.5%. Among hotel-related stocks, the broker prefers pure-hotel operators as the booming delivery service could take a toll on food business.
FSS rates neutral on banks, insurance, tourism, property and electronics, and is bearish on energy, petrochemicals and auto.