SCB pessimistic on 2020 GDP growth

SCB pessimistic on 2020 GDP growth

People wear face masks at Don Mueang airport on Feb 3, following the outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus. (Bangkok Post file photo)
People wear face masks at Don Mueang airport on Feb 3, following the outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus. (Bangkok Post file photo)

Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) has offered the most pessimistic view yet of Thailand’s 2020 economic growth, slashing its forecast from 2.7% to 2.1% after taking into account the coronavirus epidemic and the delayed fiscal budget.

The biggest impact from the outbreak of the novel coronavirus on Thailand’s tourism sector will be seen this month and next, the research unit said.    

The number of foreign travellers is estimated to drop for three straight months in the better-case scenario, four in the base-case scenario and six in the worst-case assumption, resulting in a contraction of 2.5%, 4.6% or 8.1% in 2020, the EIC said.

The Wuhan coronavirus will slow China’s economy this year, threatening the global economic recovery and dealing a blow to supply chains in the period ahead. In the EIC’s base-case scenario, Thailand’s export value is forecast to shrink by 1% this year, down from 0.2% growth predicted earlier.

The EIC’s latest forecast is far below policymakers’ views. The Bank of Thailand and the Fiscal Policy Office predict GDP growth of 2.8% this year. 

Apart from the Sars-like virus outbreak, the delay in the fiscal 2020 budget bill will hurt public investment in the three months to March.

The government is expected to hasten budget disbursement to shore up the economy after the budget bill is implemented. But the months-long delay can’t be completely offset, and state investment growth is now projected at 3.9% in 2020, down from an earlier 5.6% estimate, the EIC said.


Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT (1)

Ukraine says has 'evidence' Russia behind cyberattack

KYIV: Ukraine said Sunday it had "evidence" that Russia was behind a massive cyberattack that knocked out key government websites this past week, while Microsoft warned the hack could be far worse than first thought.

16 Jan 2022

Monks flee temples in eastern Myanmar amid intense fighting

Hundreds of monks fled two major towns in Myanmar, a witness said Sunday, among thousands recently displaced by intense fighting between the military and rebel groups opposed to last year's coup.

16 Jan 2022

Philippines says Suu Kyi must be involved in Myanmar peace process

MANILA: Deposed Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi is "indispensable" in restoring democracy to the military-ruled country and must be included in any peace talks, regardless of her conviction, the Philippines' foreign minister said on Sunday.

16 Jan 2022