Thai economic data were mixed in January, with growth in private consumption and exports but tepid investment, while the impact of the coronavirus outbreak could be seen starting late last month, says a senior official at the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).
The economy showed signs of improvement, led by exports and private investment -- particularly in durable goods, as seen by a 0.4% year-on-year increase in passenger car sales and a narrower contraction of new registered motorcycles to 0.2% year-on-year after a 17.3% plunge in December, said Wuttipong Jittungsakul, deputy director-general of the FPO.
Farmer income expanded in January on rising farm product prices.
Export value in dollar terms reversed course in the first month of 2020, up 3.4% from a year earlier, driven by growth in shipments of fuel and ore, electric appliances, and agricultural products.
According to a breakdown by key trading partners, merchandise shipping to the US, China and five Asean countries grew by 9.9%, 5.2% and 3.8% respectively from a year ago, but the same category of exports to Australia, Hong Kong and Africa continued to shrink.
Import value fell by 7.9% from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of US$1.6 billion in January.
The number of foreign tourist arrivals rose by 2.5% year-on-year to 3.81 million in January. But the impact of the coronavirus outbreak started to be felt, as witnessed by a 3.7% year-on-year drop in the number of Chinese arrivals.
Value-added tax on goods and service purchases, a proxy of domestic consumption, fell by 0.4% year-on-year, while consumer confidence in the economy fell on virus concerns.
The FPO, which cut its forecast for 2020 GDP growth to 2.8% last month from 3.3% seen earlier, is set to review its economic outlook again in April.
The National Economic and Social Development Council last week slashed its forecast for 2020 economic growth to 1.5-2.5% from the 2.7%-3.7% range seen last November, while the Bank of Thailand is poised to review its growth estimate of 2.8% in March.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand is monitoring the virus epidemic and joining forces with the Thai Bankers' Association to assess the impact and beef up security to ensure that financial services remain undisrupted, said Nawaron Dejsuvan, assistant governor for financial institutions policy.
The central bank has talked with financial institutions about guidelines and measures to tackle the spreading virus, she said.
Kasikornbank, for example, has installed thermal imaging cameras at four key branches -- Rat Burana, Phahon Yothin, Chaeng Watthana and Silom -- and at the KBTG Building to check the body temperature of those entering the properties.