The research house of CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT) forecasts Bangkok and the five surrounding provinces under the government's partial lockdown measures should reopen in August, while the Phuket sandbox scheme should help hotels on the island recover.
Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon and Nakhon Pathom should gradually reopen, with a full reopening expected in August, said Amonthep Chawla, head of CIMBT Research Office.
On Monday, the government announced measures lasting 30 days, including a prohibition on dining in at restaurants in Bangkok and the five surrounding provinces. The partial lockdown measures stunt economic activities and domestic consumption.
He said Thailand's economic outlook faces downside risks from rising daily infections of Covid-19, variants of the virus and vaccination delays.
CIMBT slashed its Thai GDP growth estimate for this year from 1.9% to 1.3%, and the forecast for 2022 drops to 4.2% from 5.1%.
Exports are expanding in line with higher external demand during the global economic recovery, which should contribute to Thai economic growth.
The research house forecasts export growth of 15.5% this year and 10.5% in 2022.
The government's Phuket sandbox tourism scheme kicking off yesterday should improve private consumption and consumer confidence, said CIMBT. Assuming success, the government can implement the model in other provinces to foreign tourists.
However, given an uneven global economic recovery and varying reopening policies for countries, CIMBT predicts paltry foreign arrival numbers this year.
In 2021, the research house estimates offshore arrivals of 500,000, below the Bank of Thailand's assessment of 700,000.
CIMBT forecasts foreign tourist arrivals increasing to 10.6 million in 2022, exceeding the central bank's projection of 10 million.
"The Phuket sandbox scheme should benefit the hotel business first because tourists from Europe and the Middle East are expected to comprise the first group," said Mr Amonthep. "Tourism-related businesses such as restaurants, souvenir shops and shopping malls are more dependent upon Chinese tourists, but Beijing still remains focused on domestic travel."