Research houses have upgraded growth projections for Thai exports after shipments recorded high levels in June because of the global economic recovery.
Krungsri Research, a unit under Bank of Ayudhya, increased Thailand's export growth forecast for 2021 to 13.5%, up from 9% earlier, after shipments in June surged 43.8% year-on-year, an 11-year high.
The research house predicts Thai exports will maintain positive momentum in the second half of this year, though the growth rate may slow because of the base effect. Moreover, the continued high number of daily infections will likely affect the manufacturing sector and exports in the second half, said the unit.
Krungsri Research expects the government's lockdown measures to contain new infections, but labour shortages in some fields will impact some manufacturing sectors and Thai exports in the third quarter this year.
The projected 13.5% export growth this year would add 0.6 percentage points of growth to Thai GDP, said the research unit. Yet a slowdown in economic activity caused by new infections has led the research house to slash Thailand's 2021 GDP growth projection from 2% to 1.2%.
Kasikorn Research Center previously upgraded Thai shipment growth this year from 9% to 11.5%. The outlook called for 15.5% export growth the first half this year and a 20% shipment gain for other countries in the region.
SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), a research house under Siam Commercial Bank, maintained its export growth forecast at 15% in July after reviewing figures for June. The global economic recovery and the low base effect are the key factors supporting the growth of shipments in regional countries, including Thailand.
However, the high number of new Covid-19 infections, container shortages and higher freight fees will challenge Thai shipments in the second half this year, said SCB EIC.
Last Friday, the Commerce Ministry reported customs-cleared exports rose for a fourth consecutive month, after gains of 41.6% in May, 13.1% in April and 8.47% in March, respectively, following a 2.59% contraction in February.