Winter is coming to the northern hemisphere, and people in North America and Europe normally flock to places that offer them a warm-weather break. It's the high season for tourism in many Asian countries, but one that will only happen in a world without Covid-19.
Southeast Asian countries that rely heavily on tourist spending have seen their economies battered by pandemic-related measures including travel restrictions and quarantines. In 2019, the tourism industry contributed US$393 billion to the regional economy.
Southeast Asia could lose 8.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) if tourists continue to put off travel plans, according to a scenario predicted by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad). Efforts to open countries and potentially revive tourism are now under way throughout the region.
Thailand, where tourism accounts for 11% of GDP, is reopening its borders to foreign tourists from 46 countries beginning next month. The country will waive the 14-day quarantine for those who are fully vaccinated. Yet, scepticism persists among Thais because only 25.3 million people, or 36.2% of the population, are fully vaccinated.
Pink, an online seller based in Bangkok, hasn't had her Covid shots yet. She is one of many Thais who paid deposits months ago for the Moderna vaccine, and is still waiting because private hospitals' plans to import the US vaccines got tangled up in government red tape.
"Being unvaccinated is a concern of mine going out and travelling," she said. The 25-year-old hasn't travelled anywhere since the most recent lockdowns began.
"Travelling is not really the priority of mine right now. Working is."
Pink disagrees with reopening the country as many Thais are not vaccinated with mRNA vaccines, which are seen as offering better protection against the Delta variant than conventional jabs such as Sinopharm, Sinovac or AstraZeneca.
Neighbouring Malaysia has lifted its travel restrictions for domestic and international travel for fully vaccinated visitors as well. Langkawi island was opened to domestic travellers as a pilot destination in September.
"Wonderful" is how Kareena, a 22-year-old journalist based in Kuala Lumpur, said she felt when she learned the news.
But despite being inoculated with Pfizer mRNA vaccine, Ms Kareena said she would still opt out of travel for two reasons. "Although it is now an open season for every vaccinated individual to travel, Covid has not been eradicated," she said.
The second reason is that she believes some people are still not complying with basic distancing, mask and hygiene measures despite strenuous public awareness campaigns. "The authorities had imposed record fines on individuals, yet many have not learned from the seriousness of the occasion."
If Ms Kareena and Ms Pink are to travel again, certain requirements must be met. Both are concerned with the cleanliness of accommodations. They expect great services with amenities that meet the most stringent sanitation standards.
Security and safety of airline travel is also high on the list. "Airlines take pride in being safe and secure to enable me to arrive at my destination with uninhibited peace of mind," said Ms Kareena. "Ease of online ticketing and flexibility to make [booking] adjustments is a key factor."
EVOLVING DEMAND
Once travel restrictions are lifted, domestic tourism is expected to recover fast, if the rapid increase in flight and accommodation bookings in some Southeast Asian countries is any guide. But tourism after the pandemic will be different as travellers' behaviour has changed.
In Indonesia, 44% of Traveloka users say they would prefer to travel to their hometown, while 32% want to travel outside of the city of their residence. Thirty-six percent of Singaporean users of the Asean-wide booking platform prefer to explore the outdoors, especially amusement parks.
While 40% of Vietnamese users prefer to stay in a hotel or vacation rental property, 35% want to visit an attraction. The figures for Thailand were 22% and 25% respectively.
"We are seeing increased interest and optimism about travelling among customers; however, many aspects of the travel experience have changed and are expected to evolve," said Panicha Thananaken, country manager of Traveloka Thailand.
A safe and flexible trip is what travellers expect from hotel operators and travel agencies. A probable outbreak is major concern for travellers as its consequences will affect their plans, Ms Panicha added.
To keep up with customers' changing demands during the pandemic, Traveloka initiated Pay Upon Check-In, a flexible payment option for accommodation, and it offers an Easy Refund and Reschedule feature on its website.
To help users gather the most accurate available information for upcoming trips, Traveloka introduced a Safe Travel Page to provide up-to-date news on travel destination restrictions and requirements as well, said Ms Panicha.
With limited choices, domestic destinations have been attractive throughout the pandemic. In Ms Panicha's view, international destinations are starting to emerge but travellers are cautious about where they want to set out as they are continuously looking at levels of infection risk, trying to avoid crowded places and using less public transport.
"Other than that, we have seen an increase in financial anxiety among tourists across Southeast Asia due to the pandemic as people are being even more careful in planning their travel and purchases," she noted.
Southeast Asian tourists are not the only ones who are eager to embark on trips. Chinese travellers are equally keen to get moving again as domestic restrictions have been lifted. But authorities are quick to ban flights and rail services at the slightest sign of any new flareups of the virus. International travel is still off the table as Beijing pursues its zero-Covid goal.
"We have witnessed a strong recovery momentum, with pent-up demand unleashed, following the relaxation of travel restrictions," said James Liang, a co-founder and executive chairman of Trip.com, the Chinese multinational online travel company.
"With a larger vaccinated population, we are confident in anticipating more stable momentum in travel demand," he added, noting that more than 1 billion Chinese citizens -- 75% of the population -- have been fully vaccinated.
There is increased engagement with travel content online, suggesting a large volume of Chinese travellers are searching for both domestic and international destinations. Businesses associated with the tourism industry have also seen strong recovery signs.
The preferences and behaviour of Chinese travellers have also evolved over the past 18 months under lockdown.
"We have seen booking windows shorten as travellers hold out before deciding on their trip. There are a variety of factors behind this such as price, last-minute offers, travel restrictions, and availability," said Mr Liang.
During the October Golden Week, a seven-day national holiday at the start of the month, 515 million trips were made by Chinese travellers, according to data from Trip.com.
"This year's Golden Week Holiday saw domestic tourism revenue reach 389.06 billion yuan, recovering to 59.9% of the same period before the pandemic," said Mr Liang.
Among the top destinations for the autumn long holiday were Beijing partly due to the new Universal Beijing Resort, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Xi'an, Wuhan and Nanjing.
"Chinese domestic travellers have been drawn to more diverse 'dark horse' secondary destinations," he said, adding that Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu and Tibet are among the destinations that have welcomed more tourists.
During the October break, high-end hotels saw an 80% increase in bookings compared to those made in the week before the holidays.
"Hotels with themes and activities that allow contact with wildlife, mountain retreats, theme parks or hotels with family rooms, and couples' retreats are all top choices," Mr Liang added.
Hotels with wellness-centred offerings and spas have gained popularity this year as well. The Winter Olympics in Beijing next year have also fuelled the enthusiasm of Chinese citizens, resulting in searches for winter sport-themed hotels.
Flying remains the most popular means of transport for long-distance travel, while high-speed trains and car rentals are popular with shorter trips.
However, as travellers seek more control and flexibility in their trips, car rental bookings have seen a significant increase of 40% compared with 2019.
Traveloka has seen a similar pattern among its customers in Southeast Asia. Shifting to rental cars "allows them to better adapt and manage social distancing, especially for shorter trips", Ms Panicha added.
Chinese travellers are the main source of tourism revenue in Southeast Asian countries. And although the Chinese government doesn't have any plan to reopen borders until next year, Mr Liang said, "I remain positive that there is significant pent-up demand for international travel in the Chinese market.
"Safety will be a top priority in the recovery of Chinese international travel, in addition to quarantine measures and how travel itineraries are arranged."
"Safety will be a top priority in the recovery of Chinese international travel, in addition to quarantine measures and how travel itineraries are arranged," says James Liang, co-founder and executive chairman of Trip.com. SUPPLIED
NEARBY ROLE MODEL
The Maldives, meanwhile, has been open to tourists of all nationalities since July 15 last year. Knowing that quarantine would deter travellers, the Indian Ocean archipelago scrapped its mandatory quarantine on arrival. However, tourists have to present a negative Covid test result, conducted within a maximum of 95 hours before departure to the Maldives.
"Due to swift and effective action from the government, the Maldives has been able to successfully contain the spread of the virus, mainly through extensive testing and a significant increase in the capacity of its hospitals," said Sonu Shivdasani, founder and CEO of Soneva Group.
The company owns and operates the Soneva Fushi luxury resorts in the Maldives and Soneva Kiri in Trat province in eastern Thailand.
The Maldives was among the first countries to receive the Safe Travel Stamp from the World Travel and Tourism Council, signifying the safety and hygiene standards of a destination. More than 400 destinations around the world have been recognised including Thailand.
"We have seen strong demand from countries in our key source markets of India, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council countries), Russia, the US and some parts of Europe." said Mr Shivdasani. "Just recently, the UK also removed the Maldives from its 'red' list, so we are hoping to see some demand from this market soon.
"The key to a safe reopening is to ensure that all travellers and guests are PCR tested, both prior to travelling and upon arrival," he said. Soneva also makes sure that its local and arriving staff are tested Covid-free.
At the resort, exceptional service is complemented by strict hygiene measures including mandatory masks, gloves and social distancing from the hosts, deep sanitisation of transport, arriving luggage, villas, and high-touchpoint areas such as door handles.
Guests who wish to take PCR tests on departure can easily obtain them during their stay as well.
In Mr Shivdasani's opinion, travellers are becoming more health-focused and conscious about nature and the planet. This aligns with a survey by the World Travel and Tourism Council, which showed that 58% of respondents are thinking more about the environment since Covid-19.
"I believe the world is striving for real experiences now. Living in the moment is everything," he said. "When guests go on holiday, we don't want them to do the same thing they do at home. We want them to escape, to dream, to feel.
"Our guests are looking for interesting, unique life moments and unique destinations that they know they will be safe in. They want meaning, authenticity and connection."
Soneva works closely with its travel partners to promote not only the Maldives and Thailand but other world-class destinations. Its marketing strategies include in-person sales calls, online newsletters and webinars to stay connected with guests and Soneva enthusiasts.
"Our guests are looking for interesting, unique life moments and unique destinations that they know they will be safe in. They want meaning, authenticity and connection," says Sonu Shivdasani, founder and CEO of Soneva Group. Photo: Julia Neeson
FUTURE PROSPECTS
Having lost one high season and amid uncertain prospects for the one now beginning, tourism-reliant developing countries are desperately in need of sound revival strategies.
Restoring the confidence of travellers who fear health risk, cancelled plans and being stranded abroad is the key, according to a report by Unctad. Vaccination is a vital element in the process.
Rolling out vaccines globally as soon as possible is an economic priority, it said. A goal is to vaccinate 40% of the global population by year-end and 60% by mid-2022. This could be challenging and could cost $50 billion, but the report assures that it will be worth the investment.
In the meantime, it said, countries need to communicate travel requirements clearly as well as facilitate the issuing of accepted travel passes such as vaccination certificates and test results.
Covid is a wake-up call for governments, particularly those in tourism-dependent countries, to come up with strategic plans on tourism. Economic diversification from tourism is recommended, but it can be difficult for some countries.
Thailand's tourism industry employs more than 7 million people -- or 20% of the country's entire workforce -- so when Covid hit, it was catastrophic. Reallocating labour to other service sectors that have a growing demand in the future can be another approach to diversification in the new tourism landscape.
Capital investment in businesses so they can transform to adapt to new trends, and in technology to assist in the process, is greatly in need.
Workers, not just in declining sectors, should be protected, and investment in human capital is equally crucial. This can be done through education and training in future skills to boost resilience and mitigate the impact of shocks like the Covid pandemic, Unctad said.