A rapid increase in Covid-19 infections across continents -- triggered by the highly contagious variant Omicron -- looks certain to mar the festive mood during the year-end holidays, but has yet to grip the whole business sector.
Businesses want economic activities to continue along with sufficiently strict preventive measures, rather than draconian lockdowns.
The government is preparing itself financially to cope with the possible impact of Omicron.
CONFIDENCE BOOST?
Chamnan Srisawat, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, said studies of Omicron have shown the variant is less likely to cause severe illness, offering hope for the tourism sector.
If the virus becomes like a seasonal flu, then the tourism outlook next year might improve as the hospitality sector can return to normal operations once there is confidence in travel, he said.
The Public Health Ministry's decision on when to restart the "Test & Go" scheme requires more information, said Mr Chamnan, but the ministry should keep people informed about this variant to alleviate growing concerns and allow them to gradually adjust their lives, while maintaining universal prevention measures.
In addition, he said the ministry should declare its readiness to battle Omicron, announcing the number of beds, medical personnel, vaccines, medicines and the threshold of new cases before it would implement stricter restrictions.
A flip-flop on reopening and especially a domestic lockdown would destroy the battered tourism industry, as most operators have put their money and effort into rebuilding their business after two years of the pandemic, said Mr Chamnan.
"Changes in travel policy in response to Omicron have slowed tourists' travel decisions, yet preventive measures are necessary to ensure domestic activity can proceed, as the industry cannot afford another lockdown," he said.
Mr Chamnan said domestic tourism has helped to sustain the tourism industry to some degree, despite uncertainties about the pandemic. Government support measures for this market has helped operators stay afloat, he said.
The sandbox model, which allows tourists to travel in designated areas, has to be reintroduced, said Mr Chamnan. Requiring a mandatory quarantine has already proven repellent to potential travellers.
TOUGHER MEASURES
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) agrees with the government adopting stricter measures to prevent an Omicron outbreak, but warns it against resorting to lockdown.
"We don't want to see everyone run into a panic and lockdown measures reimposed," said Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the FTI, referring to harsh unwanted measures ranging from restrictions on malls' opening hours to a nighttime curfew.
It remains unclear whether Omicron will severely affect the public health system and the economy, which requires close monitoring, Mr Supant said.
"Lockdown will only shock the economy while it is recovering," he said.
"Perhaps a lockdown is not the right approach. We need to find a way to coexist with Covid-19."
Business operators and consumers have adjusted their work and lives to the pandemic since early last year. They are becoming familiar with the disease and know how to protect themselves against it, said Mr Supant.
"The manufacturing sector continues to implement the same preventive measures used during previous outbreaks. They are still effective as there have been no reports of factory closures," he said.
The pandemic caused business operators to adopt many hygiene standards, ranging from SHA Plus, a label indicating Safety and Health Administration (SHA) standards and vaccination of 70% of employees, to Thai Stop Covid Plus, which allows customers to inspect business services and make complaints.
The FTI earlier this year added the "IPHA trademark" to the list. This refers to Industry and Production Hygiene Administration (IPHA) certificates granted by the FTI and health officials to factory owners who pass an assessment.
Based on self-declaration, IPHA encourages manufacturers to follow a hygienic checklist to check and declare whether their food production meets safety standards, which includes proper hygiene among workers and measures against Covid-19.
A woman poses for a photo in front of a festive display on the skywalk at Pathumwan intersection. (Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)
LOCKDOWN UNLIKELY
Advanced Info Service (AIS) Plc, the country's largest mobile operator by subscriber base, remains positive about Thailand's pandemic outlook as the number of infections, deaths and hospitalisations has gradually dropped.
AIS chief executive Somchai Lertsutiwong said the current pandemic situation differs from the three previous waves of the outbreak. The country has better vaccination rates now and more space available at hospitels and hospitals.
He said the country's economy is likely to pick up next year as it already reached its nadir this year.
"I believe a lockdown policy will not be implemented again," Mr Somchai said. "The number of vaccinations has increased dramatically."
The government should maintain preventive measures and work with all segments of society to provide proper care for infected patients, as well as find ways to prevent the smuggling of people into the country, he said.
According to Mr Somchai, AIS resumed normal operations on Dec 1 with flexible working conditions, allowing staff to work from anywhere for 40% of their hours and 60% at the office.
There are no fixed desks or chairs for AIS employees now, with desks spaced according to social distancing guidelines.
He said the company does not have a plan to impose stricter working conditions, despite the emergence of the Omicron variant in the country.
A sign on a thermal scanner urges people to wear a face mask at a venue on Bangkok's Khao San Road, a popular area among tourists. (Photo: Pornprom Satrabhaya)
NO PANIC
Companies in the energy sector are not seriously concerned about the spread of the Omicron variant because of mass vaccinations and a state of "immunity" within some businesses.
However, business operators have agreed to remain vigilant as uncertainties caused by the new highly transmissible variant and global oil prices could occur.
More than 60% of the country's population are fully vaccinated, so the emergence of Omicron should not cause such a scare as last year, when few people had received vaccines, said M.L. Nathasit Diskul, president of Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc (BAFS).
He believes new infections are not necessarily going to lead to severe symptoms.
"At least we still see some light, and do not remain in a nightmare like last year and earlier this year," said M.L. Nathasit.
However, BAFS continues to be cautious in the way it runs its businesses as the pandemic will not easily disappear, he said.
Risk management, cost control and a 10-50% reduction in salary among BAFS executives have already been implemented.
The company also held off on making investments that are not deemed urgent and adopted measures to help delay loan payments.
M.L. Nathasit insisted there is a need to maintain cash flow to operate businesses during the pandemic.
He expects the global aviation industry will encounter a shortage of manpower and aviation equipment next year because of lengthy lockdowns.
"Thai aviation cannot avoid these scarcities," said M.L. Nathasit.
Montri Rawanchaikul, chief executive of PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP), said although the spread of Omicron may become more rampant, he believes the impact on the company's business will remain muted.
During the Covid-19 outbreak early last year, demand for energy fuel dropped for only a short time in the electricity generation sector, then resumed growth because of high demand from petrochemical companies supplying feedstock for making plastic packaging during lockdowns.
Mr Montri said 80% of PTTEP's gross profit comes from selling gas to petrochemical and cooking gas firms, which continued to grow despite the pandemic.
People wearing face masks to prevent the spread of Covid-19 take photos by a display at Iconsiam mall in Bangkok. (Photo: Wichan Charoenkiatpakul)
READY TO COOPERATE
Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the Omicron variant is a new challenge all parties have to closely monitor.
However, he said the private sector believes the availability of public health information and the government's decision to suspend the Test & Go scheme will help prevent a wider spread of the latest virus strain.
The chamber believes the government is unlikely to reinstate rigid lockdown and curfew measures because it has become clear such rules caused enormous damage to the country and the overall economy, said Mr Sanan.
The chamber urges all sectors to strictly comply with public health measures.
"The government, the private sector and the public have to work together more seriously to avoid undesirable impacts and prevent consumer confidence from deflating, as confidence has been improving lately," he said.
According to Mr Sanan, companies are ready to cooperate with stricter government measures to contain the spread of Omicron.
The chamber will try its best to supervise its members to follow the safety and preventive measures, particularly for shops, restaurants and businesses related to tourism, he said.
For example, the chamber has been campaigning for members and entrepreneurs to register for both the Safety and Health Administration (SHA) and SHA+ standards to build up consumer confidence.
The chamber also accelerated inoculations among both local and foreign workers in the industrial sector, said Mr Sanan.
GLOBAL SUPPORT
Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said Thai economic expansion would receive positive momentum from the global economic recovery in 2022, despite the uncertainties generated by the Omicron variant.
Mr Arkhom said recently the government stands ready to inject around 1 trillion baht into the economy next year to cushion against any volatility that may be caused by the Omicron variant.
Roughly 600 billion baht would be drawn from the state investment budget for fiscal 2022, while 300 billion would be taken from state enterprises' investment budget, he said.
The government has around 250 billion baht remaining from the 500 billion it borrowed using the second emergency loan decree to mitigate the pandemic's impact on the economy.