The Thai stock market rebounded yesterday following the Russian invasion of Ukraine as investors believe US sanctions targeting the Russian financial sector will have a limited effect on the energy sector and the global economy.
Investors also welcomed the decision by the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization to refrain from sending troops to Ukraine.
However, analysts said investors still need to closely monitor the situation, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. On the home front, investors should keep an eye on the recent surge in daily Covid cases.
Domestic gold prices rose by 500 baht in the Gold Trader Association's first adjustment yesterday, while WTI crude oil fell to US$95 per barrel yesterday morning.
According to CoinGecko.com, cryptocurrency market capitalisation rose 9.7% to $1.8 trillion baht. The price of Bitcoin stood at $38,578, while Ethereum was $2,621 as of 3pm yesterday.
After the Ukraine attack, Russia's credit default swaps rose 456.6 basis points (bps), reaching its highest level at 917 bps since the crisis in 2014-2015.
The Russian ruble weakened 5.15% to a record high of 85.32 per US dollar, while Russian stock markets were down 33.3% on Thursday.
Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) research said the Russia-Ukraine conflict could encourage the Fed to raise the interest rate to 0.25-0.5% in March instead of the previous forecast of 0.5%-0.75%.
Analysts from ASPS said the Thai economy will suffer little from a Russia-Ukraine war because Russia's trading value with Thailand accounts for only 0.8% of the country's total trading value.
Most Thai listed companies do not directly trade with Russia.
The Thai stock market will recover in the short term, making the bourse an attractive market for foreign investors in that period, said ASPS.
However, investors still have to monitor the situation because the Russian army is advancing towards the Ukrainian capital, meaning short-term volatility will persist, said the analysts.
ASPS expects the SET Index to move in the same direction as global stock markets.
The brokerage recommends Total Access Communication (DTAC), Global Power Synergy (GPSC) and MK Restaurant Group (M).
CGS-CIMB Securities recommended a short-term speculative purchase of energy, refinery and coal stocks that should benefit from the geopolitical conflict.
The SET Index yesterday closed at 1,679.90 points with a trading value of 87.8 billion baht.