Limited global impact of sanctions lifts shares

Recap: Asian stocks rebounded yesterday as investors believed Western sanctions against Russia that targeted its banks -- but not its energy exports -- will have a limited effect on the global economy.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,656.62 and 1,713.87 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,679.9, down 1.94% from the previous week, in daily turnover averaging 100 billion baht.

Retail investors were net buyers of 4.8 billion baht and foreign investors bought 3.87 billion baht. Institutional investors were net sellers of 8.41 billion baht and brokerage firms offloaded 263.61 million baht in shares.

Newsmakers: Oil prices broke past $100 and safe havens including gold surged while equities tumbled early on Thursday after Russian President Vladimir Putin began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, accelerating fears of a major war.

• Asian stocks and currencies were battered on Thursday with the SET losing almost 1.6% and Singapore shares dropping 2% as the Russian attacks on Ukraine spoiled investors' appetite for risk.
• Russia's billionaires lost $39 billion on the day of the Ukraine invasion, as the benchmark MOEX Russia Index closed 33% lower in Moscow, the fifth-worst plunge in stock market history in local currency terms.
• Many individuals and entities targeted by financial sanctions on Russia will probably use cryptocurrencies to avoid impact, experts say. New tools developed in Russia can help mask the origin of transactions on the blockchain, they add.
• Hong Kong has submitted an application to join the 15-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement, the trade agreement that includes the 10 Asean states, mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
• HSBC on Tuesday announced bumper 2021 profits and plans to repurchase shares worth up to $1 billion as the Asia-focused bank continues its recovery from the pandemic and major restructuring.
• Singapore Airlines on Thursday reported its first profitable quarter since December 2019, underpinned by a strong cargo market and an improvement in passenger numbers as the city-state eased some of its pandemic-led border restrictions.
• The European Union has imposed fresh sanctions against Myanmar's military regime, focusing on the lucrative state-owned oil and gas company that has been a key source of revenue for the junta more than a year after the coup -- and a partner of Thailand's PTT.
• Australia reopened its borders to vaccinated tourists on Monday, nearly two years after it imposed some of the world's strictest Covid travel restrictions.
• Thailand cannot contemplate any interest-rate increases until its economy is fully recovered, and fiscal and monetary policy will continue to support businesses and an economic revival, Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said on Wednesday.
• Thailand's economy returned to growth in the final quarter of 2021, expanding 1.9% year-on-year, as exports increased and domestic activity improved following an easing of coronavirus curbs and reopening to tourists.
• The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) forecasts economic growth between 3.5% and 4.5% this year, after a 1.6% advance in 2021.
• Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith has projected public debt will rise to 62% of GDP in fiscal 2022 from 59.6% as of December 2021.
• Thailand has two months of oil reserves, but the Russia-Ukraine crisis could affect future energy prices, according to the Energy Ministry.
• The cabinet approved a 7.66-billion-baht budget to finance price guarantees for oil palm in the 2021-22 season.
• The cabinet on Tuesday approved a package of customs and excise tax measures to promote the electric vehicle (EV) industry and reduce carbon monoxide emissions.
• The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) is worried the Russia-Ukraine crisis may affect car exports, which already dropped by 5.8% in January because of the prolonged global semiconductor shortage.
• The cabinet has agreed to waive personal income tax for three groups of highly sought wealthy foreigners, and approved a 17% flat-rate personal income tax on certain highly skilled professionals.
• Authorities have agreed to drop the widely criticised second PCR test for foreign visitors starting on March 1, and to reduce the minimum insurance coverage requirement to $20,000 from $50,000.
• The easing of rules for foreign arrivals came just days after officials lifted the Covid alert to Level 4 as infections reached record levels, though hospitalisations and deaths remain low. Tourism groups criticised the decision, saying state policy should enable people to live with the virus instead of limiting travel activities.
• The Phuket Sandbox scheme has generated over 43 billion baht in revenues, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
• The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) Policy Committee has approved the setting up of a new company to expedite the development of U-tapao airport.
• Nok Air will start services between Bangkok and Betong in Yala, with three return flights a week, from March 14, the airline announced on Thursday.
• Thai Union Group Plc, the global seafood and pet food producer, said net profit in 2021 surged 28.3% to 8 billion baht, with sales rising 6.5% to 141 billion, supported by a rebound in the frozen and chilled seafood business and eased pandemic restrictions in the US.
• Pointing to an improvement in Bangkok condo market sentiment, the SET-listed developer AP Thailand has committed to five new projects worth a combined 13 billion baht in 2022.
• PTT Oil and Retail Business Plc (OR) plans capital expenditure of 26.9 billion baht to further expand its retail businesses, including Cafe Amazon, as well as develop the food and beverage businesses of its partners.

Coming up: Japan and Australia will release January retail sales on Monday and the US will announce January goods trade figures and retail inventories. Canada will release fourth-quarter current account and January raw material prices.

• China, Germany, Britain and the US will release February manufacturing PMI on Tuesday and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision. Canada will release fourth-quarter GDP.
• Australia will release fourth-quarter GDP on Wednesday. Due the same day are February unemployment in Germany, euro zone inflation and a Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
• Britain will release February composite and services PMI on Thursday, and the US will release initial jobless claims and February non-manufacturing PMI. The US will release February nonfarm payrolls and unemployment on Friday.

Stocks to watch: Yuanta Securities recommends fundamental stocks expected to perform and maintain growth amid negative factors including war and inflation. Top picks are MAKRO, CPALL, DTAC, BDMS, OSP, TISCO and PSH.

• UOB Kay Hian Securities recommends property stocks expected to offer high dividend yields and whose prices remain low. Its picks are LH, SPALI, AP, SC and ASW.

Technical view: Tisco Securities sees support at 1,660 points and resistance at 1,700. Maybank Securities sees support at 1,670 and resistance at 1,700.