Despite a spate of global uncertainties, Thai exports are expected to perform well in the second quarter, with year-on-year growth of 3.5-5%, according to a group of Thai shippers.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, president of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), said Thai outbound shipments are likely to continue growing in the second quarter, albeit at a slower pace than the first quarter when exports expanded by 14.9% year-on-year, fetching the country US$73.6 billion.
Mr Chaichan said the export sector faces myriad risks, including the Russia-Ukraine war; rising energy prices; persistently high freight rates, especially to Europe; a shortage of workers in the manufacturing sector and rising wage costs; and raw material shortages and volatile prices, specifically for semiconductors, steel, rare earth minerals, and intermediate and upstream consumer products.
The TNSC is maintaining its export growth forecast at 5% this year, slightly higher than the Commerce Ministry's target of 3-4% for 2022.
The ministry reported on April 26 exports remain robust, posting a 30-year high in March, leading the country's outbound shipments to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022.
The customs-cleared value of Thai exports in March grew by 19.5% year-on-year to $28.8 billion (922 billion baht), the highest level attained since records began in 1991, with imports increasing 18% to $27.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.45 billion.
In the first quarter this year, Thai exports expanded by 14.9% to $73.6 billion, while imports rose by 18.4% to $74.5 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $944 million. Exports from the real sector (excluding gold, oil-related products and weaponry) expanded by 8.9% in March, the 13th consecutive month of growth.
Products with strong growth in March included goods that benefited from the rise in energy and commodity prices such as iron, steel, crude oil and refined oil.
Even with the surge in March, Mr Chaichan said the TNSC remained concerned about the prospects of certain key industries such as automobiles, auto equipment and parts, as well as rubber products. Exports in these two sectors fell by 10% and 13.4%, respectively, in March.
Export growth to key export markets such as China, Japan and the EU also shrank. This needs to be closely monitored, he said.