A group of Thai exporters remains bullish on the country’s prospects this year, despite slower growth in April.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), said the council believes 5-8% growth for the country’s export sector is still achievable, with key drivers including the depreciation of the baht and robust demand for many products such as sugar, rubber, auto parts, textiles, food, rice, and gems and jewellery.
The council projected Thai exports could maintain growth of 3-5% in the second quarter, with growth of 5% in both the third and fourth quarters. Exports grew by a healthy 8.7% in the first quarter.
“To achieve 8% growth this year, Thai exports would have to fetch an average of US$24.8 billion per month during the remaining months of 2022,” said Mr Chaichan. “More importantly, energy prices should not exceed $120 per barrel, staying within a range of $100115 per barrel, while logistics costs should not to be too volatile.”
The Commerce Ministry reported on May 28 the customs-cleared value of Thai exports in April grew by 9.9% year-on-year to $23.5 billion, with imports increasing by 21.5% to $25.4 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $1.9 billion.
That was lower than March’s robust 19.5% export growth, which reached $28.8 billion (922 billion baht) in value, the highest level since records began in 1991.
Exports in the real sector (excluding gold, oil-related products, and arms and weapons) rose by 6.9% in April, easing from 8.9% growth in March.
In the first four months this year, Thai exports grew by 13.7% year-on-year to $97.1 billion, while imports rose by 19.2% to $100 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.85 billion.
Mr Chaichan warned the Thai export sector still has to brave a spate of significant risks, particularly hefty energy prices caused in part by the Russia-Ukraine war, which translates to higher production and transport costs for goods as well as global consumer product prices.
The council forecasts global oil prices to stand firm at about $100-115 per barrel this year.
He said high rates of inflation around the world would raise the cost of living for people worldwide, while weakening their purchasing power.