Investors await US jobs data for cues

Recap: Global shares were mixed yesterday as investors awaited US employment data, a crucial factor in the market's assessment of the probability of a recession.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,530.43 and 1,577.10 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,557.87, down 0.94% from the previous week, in daily turnover averaging 65.01 billion baht.

Retail investors were net buyers of 3.53 billion baht and foreign investors bought 1.34 billion. Institutional investors were net sellers of 3.82 billion baht and brokerage firms offloaded 1.05 billion baht worth of shares.

Newsmakers: The crypto broker Voyager Digital has filed for bankruptcy protection just weeks after getting a lifeline from billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the giant FTX exchange, citing market volatility and the collapse of a hedge fund it had lent money to.

• The Chinese developer Shimao Group said it failed to make a payment on a US$1-billion bond that matured last Sunday, one of the biggest defaults so far this year in the country's troubled property sector.
• Copper prices extended a sharp retreat after the economic bellwether suffered one of its worst days since the depths of the Covid pandemic in 2020 on growing fears of a global recession.
• Malaysia's central bank on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate for a second straight meeting, to 2.25%, in a bid to tame inflation and signalled further moves will be gradual.
• Vietnam and South Korea aim to raise the value of bilateral trade to US$100 billion next year and to $150 billion by 2030, from $78 billion last year, the Vietnamese government said.
• Oil prices are on course for a deep weekly loss, with West Texas Intermediate falling below $100 a barrel on Thursday, as investors weigh concerns that a potential global slowdown could hollow out energy demand.
• Gold prices edged up as the dollar eased slightly and some investors scooped up bargains after sharp losses that had pushed the metal below $1,750 an ounce.
• Minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting contained no major surprises for the markets, confirming that policy makers support further increases of 50 or 75 basis points to tame US inflation.
• The Bank of England says it is unlikely to offer a digital form of the pound that works like banknotes, opting instead for an instrument managed through some sort of account.
• The Bank of Thailand says the country's financial system is resilient and domestic financial markets continue to function normally despite higher volatility in global financial markets.
• The Federation of Thai Industries has warned against further currency depreciation to 37 baht against the dollar, claiming it would make life more miserable for businesses and households because of higher oil prices.
• The weakening baht is being driven down by external factors and the central bank is closely monitoring the situation, Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said, as the currency traded at its weakest level in more than five years.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has revised up its 2022 GDP growth forecast to at least 2.75%, from 2.5%, but soaring inflation remains a wild card.
• Price pressures will persist into the third quarter, the Commerce Ministry has admitted, after announcing that the Consumer Price Index rose to a near 14-year high in June at 7.7% year-on-year, accelerating from 7.1% in May and 4.7% in April.
• Thai consumer confidence in June picked up for the first time in six months, bolstered by improved economic activity following an easing of Covid curbs, but high living costs remained a worry.
• Retail prices of petrol and all types of gasohol except E85 fell yesterday by 3 baht per litre, and E85 by 1.80 baht. Diesel prices remain unchanged.
• Higher energy prices have driven up production costs by 20%, but manufacturers have managed to increase goods prices by less than 10% as they struggle to maintain sales volume.
• The National Energy Policy Council has approved a plan to buy an additional 1 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year to alleviate price fluctuations, which affect electricity generation costs.
• Banks have flagged the likelihood of higher mortgage and auto loan interest rates in response to rising financial costs and an expected hike in the policy rate next month.
• Interest rates on mortgages are expected to rise this year but will not surge to the levels they reached during the 1990s real estate boom, said the Government Housing Bank.
• Hoteliers have branded as "impractical" an idea floated by the government to charge foreigners more than Thais, saying it would be better to do more effective promotions to spur tourism sentiment, which would lead to higher room rates.
• Tourism operators on Koh Phangan are urging a lower ferry fare to the island after the price rose more than 40% this month, affecting operating and living costs for locals.
• The government has said it will complete its part of a much-delayed high-speed rail system linking the country to China via Laos by 2028.
• Thai businesses and Saudi counterparts have vowed to tighten their partnership after signing 18 agreements on Wednesday covering food, travel, hotels and agar wood among others.
• Mobile market leader Advanced Info Service AIS has announced its plan to acquire the fixed broadband provider Triple T Broadband and Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund for 32.4 billion baht.
• Banpu Plc has diversified into the healthcare business by making an investment worth $150 million in the US through a US-based healthcare investment fund.
• Grab Thailand is aiming to attain profitability next year, which marks a decade of operations in the country, driven by its ride-hailing services and online grocery shopping.
• Thai Airways International has submitted a new debt rehabilitation plan following a better-than-expected recovery from its financial crisis, said Piyasvasti Amranand, chairman of the panel overseeing the airline's court-monitored restructuring.

Coming up: Germany will release July economic sentiment on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada will announce interest rate decisions on Wednesday. The same day, Britain will release May manufacturing production and the US will release June core inflation.

• Australia will release June employment data on Thursday and the US will release June producer prices. China will release second-quarter GDP and June industrial production on Friday, and the US will release June retail sales.

Stocks to watch: Asia Plus Securities recommends stocks that benefit from baht depreciation such as HANA and KCE, and stocks that benefit from higher interest rates such as SCB and BLA. Stocks that will benefit from economic reopening and easing of tourism measures include PLANB, CRC and AP.

• DBS Vickers Securities recommends bank stocks that will gain from interest rate increases, including KBANK, KKP and TISCO. Non-bank finance businesses with potential for growth are MTC and AEONTS. For high-dividend stocks, the brokerage recommends ADVANC and INTUCH.

Technical view: DBS Vickers sees support at 1,520 points and resistance at 1,580. Thanachart Securities sees support at 1,545 and resistance at 1,580.