Industry leaders are alert to heavier rainfall as flooding can deal a further blow to the economy, though many of them do not believe certain business activities will be drowned as happened in 2011.
Eleven years ago the total damage caused by severe flooding was valued at 1.4 trillion baht or 14% of GDP, according to the Center for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Thai business leaders have different degrees of concern over inundation this year, but all agree adequate protection against water is needed.
CLOUDY PROSPECTS
Manufacturers have become increasingly more concerned about their factories in September and October as the nation is projected to be soaked by rain, threatening to put a sudden stop to their operations, said the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).
Looking back to 2011, many firms are still haunted by the great flood, especially from the Chao Phraya River, which runs through the central region from Nakhon Sawan to Bangkok and Samut Prakan. The huge volume of water ravaged factories, including those in industrial estates.
"Many industrial estates were flooded that year and last year some industrial areas near Bangkok were also inundated," said Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the FTI.
He was voicing concern after Seree Supratid, director of the Climate Change and Disaster Centre of Rangsit University, warned on Facebook that Thailand is expected to encounter 23 storms in 2022.
The country already witnessed eight storms in the first half of this year. There are 15 more expected to dump rain on various areas across the country, wrote Mr Seree.
The FTI is worried about flooding in Ayutthaya, Saraburi, Pathum Thani and Samut Sakhon, all of which are located in the central region, which houses a great number of factories.
"There are seven industrial estates in the central region that suffered severe flooding in 2011," said Mr Kriengkrai.
"We hope the government will better deal with water this time and prevent a repeat of the great flood."
Most industrial areas in the central region host food processing factories. Many of them export food, so if industrial estates are inundated, Thai shipments will be affected, he said.
The electronics industry may also bear the brunt, which would affect supply chains in this country and beyond, said Mr Kriengkrai.
In 2011, when industrial estates in Ayutthaya were flooded, smartphone manufacturers including Apple Inc announced they were affected.
The FTI is working with state agencies on ways to prevent flooding because the factories of many FTI members are located in industrial estates that are at risk.
Each industrial estate is aware of the situation and are carrying out measures such as building flood walls to keep water away from their factories, he said.
Yet these measures are not enough, said Mr Kriengkrai, and he urged the government to implement other solutions to ensure factories will not be damaged by floods.
"Thailand is expected to experience another 15 storms this year, which means flooding will be triggered by heavy rain, not runoff from the North, as happened in 2011," he said.
Mr Kriengkrai called on the Royal Irrigation Department to speed up releasing water from reservoirs and water retention areas along the Chao Phraya River so they can receive more water.
Some companies have already been affected.
Phisanu Milintanush, vice-president of farm truck maker Siam Kubota Corporation, said last week farmers are concerned about flooding, causing them to delay new purchases of farm machinery. They want to wait and see what happens with water levels, he said.
DELIVERY SERVICES ON ALERT
Flash Express, a major parcel delivery operator, said the company is keeping a close tab on the prospects for flooding following higher rainfall volume.
According to its statement sent to the Bangkok Post, Flash Express is preparing space at its storage facilities to keep parcels away from flooded areas.
The company deployed an artificial intelligence geography system for drivers to plan their routes during flooding and is scheduling vehicle check-ups to ensure drivers' safety during the rainy season.
Flash Express said if warnings are issued about areas at risk of flooding or torrential rain, the company will notify customers through its Facebook page.
The firm's delivery service has not yet been affected by the flooding.
Alex Ng, chief executive of SET-listed Kerry Express Thailand, another major courier, said during floods the company will focus more on four-wheel trucks than motorbikes for delivery.
"We have a dynamic routing mechanism for the sorting of parcels to properly run distribution centres away from inundated areas," said Mr Ng.
He insisted the safety of employees is the company's first priority.
"We will not risk employees' safety for our services," said Mr Ng. "The company has a real-time control tower to switch on and off locations by postal code."
ON STANDBY
Last Thursday developer Sena Development Plc set up a contingency team for flood protection at its residential projects in locations prone to floods.
"Bangkok has not seen such heavy rains for a long time," said Kessara Thanyalakpark, Sena's managing director.
"Though possible floods this year are unlikely to be as heavy as those in 2011, they may affect people's daily life."
The team comprises project managers who supervise the company's residential projects, totalling around 100 sites throughout Greater Bangkok.
They will review whether projects are flooded and monitor how the situation affects them, said Ms Kessara.
"The goal of the team is to help people who live in our projects -- both existing and sold-out ones," she said.
"Inside the projects might not be inundated, but the main road at the front might be, making it difficult for them to carry out their daily tasks."
Ms Kessara said flooding in Bangkok this year might not be as heavy as in 2011, but there is a chance this problem will persist as the land in each district is not at the same level.
"Some districts are at a lower level than others," she said.
"Many canals in Bangkok are overwhelmed and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's water pumps are insufficient to help drain the water."
As an advisor to the Bangkok governor, Ms Kessara is aware of which locations are risk-prone areas.
"Rangsit, Pathum Thani and Chaeng Watthana are at risk because nearby canals are nearly full," she said.
"Developers should understand the physical characteristics of the land in Greater Bangkok. As some areas are at lower levels, developers may consider filling in land at projects they want to develop to help homebuyers protect against floods."
A ferry crosses the Chao Phraya River from Sathorn pier, beneath the Taksin Bridge in Bangkok on Thursday. Pornprom Satrabhaya
HOLD THE LINE
Despite the immense damage wrought by flooding in 2011, in the aftermath homebuyers were unswayed in their purchasing decisions, with sales at residential projects in heavily flooded locations such as Rangsit and Nonthaburi tallying robust growth because buyers chose housing units close to their former home or their workplaces, said Ms Kessara.
Issara Boonyoung, managing director of low-rise housing developer Kanda Property, said developers with projects in locations prone to flooding should prepare for the possible impact.
"They should be cautious and prepare water pumps -- both electric and diesel ones -- in case of power cuts," he said.
Mr Issara said floods this year were in commercial areas and inner-city locations as water from rainfall cannot drain in time.
The excess water is not likely to affect low-rise housing projects, which are mostly on the city outskirts, he said.
Mr Issara believes flooding this year will not be as bad as in 2011 because the flood that year was caused by downstream flow from northern provinces.
Piya Prayong, chief executive of residential developer Pruksa Real Estate, said floods this year were different from those 11 years ago, which were caused by overwhelming storage at major dams in the lower northern and central regions.
"There are no signs homebuyers in the low-rise housing segment are concerned about floods or are hesitating to buy a unit," he said.
"Low-rise houses in the middle to upper-end segment in particular still have robust sales."
However, torrential rain in Greater Bangkok would obstruct construction of residential units in at-risk locations. As a result, it might delay housing construction and delivery to customers, said Mr Piya.
"At our projects in locations prone to floods, we will prepare water pumps to drain water and use crushed stone to pave the way for heavy trucks," he said.
Pradthana Patsaman, chief financial officer of SC Asset Corporation, said all of the company's residential projects launched after 2011 were developed with added landfill as a buffer against floods.
"We believe the floods this year will not be as severe as 2011 because the government's management is better than before," she said.
"We don't think the floods will have an impact on low-rise housing demand."
ALREADY LOW
Yuthasak Supasorn, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, said heavy floods in many areas had a short-term impact on tourism.
He said the number of international tourists this month is not high due to seasonality, while the domestic market normally weakens in September as school is in session.
The agency alerted all domestic offices to put risk management plans in place, particularly if tourists are left stranded or need evacuation because of sudden floods in any tourism area.
Chamnan Srisawat, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, said the tourism industry is concerned about climate change, particularly during the current monsoon season as this year flooding is occurring in many provinces, including Bangkok.
Travel decisions might be delayed because people don't want to be stuck somewhere during flooding, he said.
However, as the third quarter usually has fewer tourists, the impact won't be critical, said Mr Chamnan.
Tourism-related businesses in September could benefit from government expenditure, particularly for meetings and seminars, as state agencies have to use remaining budget by Sept 30 before the new fiscal year starts in October, he said.
UNLIKELY TO MATCH 2011
Visit Limlurcha, vice-chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and honorary president of the Thai Food Processors Association, said this year's floods are unlikely to be as devastating as those in 2011 because there are better preparations.
But he acknowledged the floods will not be good for the overall economy, society, farm crops and people.
According to Mr Visit, the floods are expected to increase the prices of agricultural products, especially eggs and fresh vegetables, resulting in a higher cost of living for people and food production costs for manufacturers.
The government is being urged to speed up preparing preventive measures to curb the floods, while easing travel obstacles in inundated areas, he said.
Digital technology should be applied to facilitate entrepreneurs and the transport of machinery from original production sites to reserve areas.
Advanced warnings for floods and marketing campaigns for alternative products for affected farmers should also be beefed up, said Mr Visit.
In addition, information should be used to deal with natural disasters and help compensate affected farmers as soon as possible, he said.
Mr Visit said immediate decisions are needed to protect factories from being inundated, including factory shutdowns and mobilising workers to their homes.
The factories have to prepare raw materials and products in safe areas away from flooding, humidity and heavy rain, while seeking raw materials from other sources both domestic and abroad, especially agricultural raw materials, he said.
Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Center for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said despite heavy rains in many areas, especially in Bangkok and the central, northeastern and eastern regions, the floods are expected to be short-lived.
"The severity of this year's floods is unlikely to be on par with the devastating flooding of 2011 because of less rainfall," he said.
Mr Aat said the rainfall volume this year should exceed the years 2017-21 because of more heavy rains in 2022, with downpours forecast to continue until October.
He advised Bangkok to accelerate the installation of machines to drain water to the sea as quickly as possible.
According to Mr Aat, economic damage from this year's floods depends on the volume of rainfall and effective water management, as well as the locations of economic units that are inundated.
"In 2022, we expect the impact on the overall economy is unlikely to match 2011 as factories have experience from 11 years ago and prepared preventive measures and systems," he said.
"The most at-risk group is likely to be the agricultural sector."