The government and businesses must brace for new disruptions and challenges as Thailand shifts to the electric vehicle (EV) era, part of state efforts to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, say Chulalongkorn University scholars.
At present, more than 60% of greenhouse gas emissions in Thailand come from the transport and power generation sectors, so businesses in these sectors need to adapt themselves as the government promotes more use of clean energy and zero-emission cars, according to the researchers.
Thailand's consumption of fossil fuels is expected to peak in 2030, then decrease significantly as a result of the government's renewable energy and EV development plans, said Weerin Wangjiraniran, a researcher at Chulalongkorn University's Energy Research Institute (ERI) during a seminar on the impact of the carbon neutrality campaign yesterday.
Authorities set a goal to have renewable energy make up 50% of all fuels used for power generation within 2037.
The National EV Policy Committee announced last March it wants EVs to constitute 50% of locally made vehicles by 2030, part of an ambitious plan to make Thailand a regional EV hub.
Citing the ERI's latest research, Mr Weerin said daily use of gasoline will decrease to 4 million litres, down from 24 million litres, by 2050. Diesel consumption is expected to fall to 9 million litres a day, down from 59 million litres a day, by 2050.
He said this will lead to a disruption in the oil refinery business, which will also be affected by more use of biofuel for aircraft, known as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
The shift to SAF is the result of the International Civil Aviation Organization's push to achieve carbon neutrality, a balance between carbon dioxide emissions and absorption, by 2050.
In the long term, fuel storage service providers will also be disrupted unless they diversify into the chemical sector, said Mr Weerin.
Even biofuel makers for vehicles will be disrupted, so they need to develop for sale high value-added products like oleochemicals, a feedstock for biodegradable plastics, said Prof Nuttha Thongchul, deputy director of Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering.
Thitipat Dokmaithet, an analyst from the Thai Automotive Institute, urged the authorities to prepare regulations to cope with a surge in "end-of-life" vehicles as people may use oil-powered cars for fewer years in order to buy EVs.
Good end-of-life vehicle management, including recycling, is needed to ensure proper waste management, he said.