Thailand's customs-based exports fell for a fourth straight month and more than expected in January as global demand slowed, with shipments expected to contract further in the first half of the year, the Commerce Ministry said on Thursday.
Exports, a key driver of growth, dropped 4.5% in January from a year earlier, worse than a 1% fall forecast in a Reuters poll, but better than December's 14.6% year-on-year slump.
Imports rose 5.5% in January from a year earlier as incoming fuel shipments jumped, resulting in a trade deficit of $4.65 billion in January, the highest in a decade, the ministry said.
Exports are expected to slow further in the first half before increasing in the latter half of the year, Phusit Ratanakul Sereroengrit, director-general of the ministry's Department of International Trade Promotion, told a news conference.
Exports should gradually improve in the second quarter but will still be lower than a year earlier due to large global stockpiles, he said.
"That has caused many countries to delay their imports, but that should improve in the second half of the year," he added.
The ministry is sticking to its targeted export growth of 1% to 2% this year, after a 5.5% increase in 2022.
However, the central bank said this week that exports could contract this year.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, told the conference there were some positive signs for exports, particularly the recovery of major export market, China, which should boost demand for Thai shipments.
Global inventory issues and a shortage of microchips used in cars should ease, and a weakening baht currency is also helping exports, he added.
In January, exports of cars and parts rose 9.2% from a year earlier while rice exports jumped. But shipments of other industrial goods declined, with computers and parts down 21% year-on-year, the ministry said in a statement.
January's exports to the United States dropped 4.7% year-on-year while those to Southeast Asia fell 3.5%. Exports to China declined 11.4% from a year earlier, the ministry said.