RECAP: Most Asian markets rallied yesterday after a sell-off the previous day in reaction to more evidence of a US economic slowdown. Trade was thin as many Western markets observed the Good Friday holiday.
Thai shares moved in a range of 1,569.37 and 1,613.98 points before closing yesterday at 1,577.07, down 2% from a week earlier, with low average daily turnover of 39.89 billion baht in a four-day trading week.
Retail investors were the top net buyers of 2.07 billion baht, followed by brokers at 1.52 billion baht. Institutional investors were net sellers of 2.5 billion baht and foreign investors sold a net 1.08 billion baht.
NEWSMAKERS: China sent warships and aircraft near Taiwan for a second day yesterday, in addition to announcing sanctions against selected US and Taiwanese individuals and organisations. The moves came after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen angered Beijing by meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a brief stopover in California on Wednesday.
- About one in 10 Japanese companies plan to scale back production overseas over the next five years, a government survey shows, amid a growing focus on supply chain risks and readiness for a global economic slowdown. The figure was the highest since the survey began in 1987.
- The Chinese automaker BYD aims to surpass American rival Tesla in global sales of fully electric vehicles, in part by scaling up capacity. In the first quarter, BYD sold just 260,000 all-electric vehicles against 420,000 for Tesla, which slashed prices to drive sales.
- Hong Kong's labour market last year saw its sharpest drop on record, underscoring the challenges of an ageing population and an outflow of talent. The working population fell by 94,100, or 2.4%, census data showed.
- Macau casinos have been forced to close off thousands of hotel rooms and cut back on guest services like housekeeping, as a labour shortage leaves the gambling hub struggling to cater to a surge of tourists from a reopened China.
- Gold prices finished the holiday-shortened week just above $2,000 an ounce as weak US economic data spurred bets the Federal Reserve may ease up on interest-rate increases. Prices rose as high as $2,040, not far from the record of $2,074.88 set in August 2020.
- Facebook owner Meta intends to commercialise its proprietary generative artificial intelligence (AI) by December, joining Google in finding practical applications for the technology seen as the internet's new frontier.
- Revenue of ByteDance Ltd surged more than 30% to surpass $80 billion in 2022, matching Chinese rival Tencent, as its twin video platforms TikTok and Douyin drew eyeballs and advertisers from social media incumbents. ByteDance is now the world's most valuable non-listed tech firm.
- Britain's data watchdog on Tuesday fined TikTok £12.7 million for breaching data protection law including by using the personal data of children aged under 13 without parental consent.
- Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has created a ¥16-billion ($120 million) fund investing in loans for leveraged buyouts, the first of its kind in Japan, anticipating growing demand for such financing as mergers and acquisitions gain steam.
- Cashless payments now account for more than one-third of all consumption in Japan, fuelled by demand for touchless purchasing options during the pandemic. Cashless purchasing reached ¥111 trillion in 2022, according to the Bank of Japan.
- The Japanese electronics manufacturer Kyocera will invest ¥62 billion ($470 million) through March 2029 on a new domestic plant for semiconductor-related components.
- Samsung Electronics said yesterday that it is reducing memory chip production as a downturn in semiconductor demand hurts it and other manufacturers. The South Korean giant expects operating profit to slump to 600 billion won in the first quarter, compared with 14.1 trillion last year.
- Consumer inflation in Indonesia cooled to a seven-month low of 4.8% in March, from 5.5% the month before, as prices rose more slowly than usual during the beginning of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.
- Average trading value on the Stock Exchange of a Thailand and Market for Alternative Investment dropped 35.9% year-on-year to 61.25 billion baht in March. Foreign investors were net sellers for a second straight month, at 31.49 billion baht, after a four-month net buying streak.
- The Ministry of Commerce has reduced its headline inflation forecast for this year to between 1.7% and 2.7%, from an earlier range of 2-3%, in line with economic conditions and falling energy prices. The revised forecast assumes oil prices of $75-85 per barrel, and an exchange rate between 32.5 and 34.5 baht to the dollar, down from 36-37 earlier.
- The value of long-term Thai corporate bonds rose 1.6% year-on-year to 270 billion baht in the first quarter of 2023. The outstanding value of the total bond market totalled 16 trillion baht, up 2% from 15.8 trillion at the end of 2022.
- Thailand recorded a current account surplus of $1.3 billion in February, after a revised deficit of $2.1 billion in the previous month, said the Bank of Thailand. Exports declined 4.1% year-on-year in the month.
- The value of Thai exports may contract by as much as 7.4% year-on-year in the first half, partly reflecting the high base of a year earlier, the Thai National Shippers' Council predicts. It expects a rebound to 1.8% growth in the third quarter and 12% in the fourth quarter.
- The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects the Songkran holiday to generate revenue of 18.5 billion baht, with domestic trips exceeding the 2019 level based on pent-up demand. It estimates 13.5 billion baht will come from 3.81 million domestic trips, exceeding the 2019 level of 11.6 billion baht from 3.3 million trips.
- Airlines are expecting higher airfares than usual during the coming low season after Opec and its allies announced additional oil production cuts of 1.16 barrels per day, starting next month, to support prices.
- BCPG Plc, the power generation arm of Bangchak Corp, will acquire a 25% stake worth $260 million in Hamilton Holdings II LLC from Franklin Power Holdings to further expand its gas-fired power plant business in the US. Hamilton Holdings II operates two power plants in Pennsylvania.
- Major Cineplex Group has partnered with the pet food maker i-Tail Corp, a subsidiary of Thai Union Group, to open the country's first pet-friendly cineplex. The pet-friendly services will initially be offered on weekends only at three locations from May 1.
COMING UP: Economic data next week includes US wholesale inventories on Monday, Chinese consumer and producer prices for March on Tuesday, and US small business sentiment. Wednesday will bring US inflation for March and weekly oil inventory data. On Thursday, the Fed will release minutes of its March 21-22 meeting.
- Locally, the SET will be closed on April 13-14 for Songkran, while earnings season will start in earnest on April 18 with bank results. The Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (Fetco) will release its latest investor confidence index, and the Bank of Thailand will release abbreviated meeting minutes.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Globlex Securities recommends top MAI stocks including SPA, D, CEYE and AU; "political connection" stocks such as TKS, SIRI, PR9, SC, STEC and STPI; and dividend plays ADVANC, TISCO, SCB, PT and SMIT.
- Stocks that benefit from rising tourist arrivals are led by AOT, BAFS, AAV, BA, MINT, CENTEL and ERW. beneficiaries of high oil prices after a new Opec+ output cut are PTTEP, TOP, PTT, SPRC and BCP.
- Top picks from the Investment Analysts Association are ADVANC, AOT, BBL, COM7 and CPALL.
- In light of financial sector worries in the US and Europe, InnovestX Securities recommends stocks with strong fundamentals and financial position, profitable outlooks for 2023-24 and cheap valuations. AU, BBL, BDMS, CPALL and GULF are among those with limited downside risks and are worth accumulating.
- Among dividend stocks, 11 years of data suggest SPALI (0.75 baht per share) and LH (0.35 baht per share) are top performers.
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,543 points and resistance at 1,587. Pi Securities sees support at 1,555 points and resistance at 1,595.