The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) acknowledges that inbound Japanese visitors are unlikely to reach its target of half of the 2019 level this year because of a slow resumption of flights and a weak yen, while travel agents have voiced concerns about potential political unrest.
Kajorndet Apichartrakul, director of TAT's Tokyo office, said it would be a challenge for Japanese arrivals to reach 850,000 this year, which is 50% of the 2019 tally. He described meeting the target as the best-case scenario, according to the agency.
Mr Kajorndet said outbound tourism from Japan has been hampered by its currency's weakness against the baht, recorded at 100 yen per 24 baht, falling from 30 baht in the past, creating a cost burden for tourists.
He said most Japanese now prefer to save money, while their government has been incentivising them to travel domestically over the past year.
In addition, resumption of flights between Japan and Thailand has recovered slower than other markets, currently at only 30-40% of the 2019 level. High airfares continue to pose a challenge for travellers as well, Mr Kajorndet said.
He said the situation could improve by the end of this year as flights may reach 50% of 2019 levels with new routes scheduled, such as flag carrier Thai Airways' revival of direct flights to Hokkaido in August.
The Japanese government lowered passport application fees and cancelled a requirement for passengers to show proof of Covid-19 vaccination, which could entice people keen to travel, said Mr Kajorndet.
Yoshida Masahiro, a committee member of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, said the Japanese market is by nature highly sensitive to uncertainties, such as Covid-19, with most of the population still wearing masks and concerned about infection while travelling overseas.
Though Thai tourism has endured severe floods, political demonstrations and an airport siege in Bangkok the past few decades, it always bounced back. Yet the Japanese market is returning much slower than other inbound markets.
Mr Yoshida said if there are large political demonstrations that block transport, the Japanese market would definitely slump further.
In the first six months of this year, Thailand tallied more than 300,000 Japanese visitors.
With Japan's Nikkei stock index recently hitting a 33-year high, it signals a healthy economy and business confidence, he said. Looking ahead, Mr Yoshida said Thailand could expect more large business groups from Japan with high spending power.