Electricity bills next year are expected to remain at similar levels to 2017 as the baht's appreciation will help offset the rise in imported energy resources, including natural gas and coal, says the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC).
ERC commissioner Veeraphol Jirapraditkul said power bills should remain unchanged during the first eight months of next year. After that, the ERC will likely revise the load factor, which will dictate the power rate.
The average power price has a base factor of 3.7556 baht per kilowatt-hour (unit) and the fuel tariff is -15.9 satang per unit, excluding value-added tax.
Fuel prices are likely to increase slightly next year, but the hike should be offset by the baht's appreciation, he said.
Expensive imported diesel to offset gas supply disruptions during the shutdown for gas field maintenance in Myanmar should not hurt power consumers in Thailand because of the stronger currency, said Mr Veeraphol.
Some 5 billion baht in fines from private firms to state utilities over failures to operate power plants and supply the grid should also serve as a buffer to offset any rise in energy needs, he said.
Mr Veeraphol said while there will be no new renewable power coming online, subsidised feed-in tariffs (Fit) to be added to power bills should stabilise the electricity rate for at least eight months next year.
During the first stage to promote renewable power in Thailand, the government has provided a 28-satang-per-unit subsidy. That subsidy will not continue into 2018, he said.
By mid-2018, the ERC is expected to revise the base factor that has been used to calculate power bills since 2012. That revision is intended to reflect the changing realities of power demand and supply in the country.
The ERC estimates power demand growth next year of 4.1% to 193 billion units in all segments, from residential units to small and big businesses, based on the growing economy, robust exports and massive investment in infrastructure projects.
But in terms of peak demand during the hot season, he said it might only grow 0.3% to reach 34,202 megawatts, thanks to the self-renewable power generation system being employed in the business community and independent power supply (IPS).
He said IPS generation is growing rapidly each year.
As of October 2017, IPS capacity reached 1,627MW, an increase from a few hundred megawatts.