The Bank of Thailand is expected to leave its policy interest rate near the record low again on Wednesday to support still patchy economic growth at a time that inflation remains subdued.
All 18 economists in the poll forecast the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its one-day repurchase rate at 1.5%, where it has been since a cut in April 2015. The record low is 1.25%.
The growth rate for Southeast Asia's second-largest economy has improved, helped by strong exports and tourism. But domestic demand recovery is still at an early stage, crimped by high household debt and contracting farm incomes, due to falling commodity prices.
BoT governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said last month that monetary policy needed to remain ccommodative for some time to ensure more broad-based economic growth.
At the March meeting, the MPC voted 6-1 to hold the rate, with the dissenter supporting a hike. But the central bank said that did not signal a shift toward policy tightening.
While several other central banks have started tightening policy in the wake of hikes by the Federal Reserve, "the bar for Thailand is still too high this year", HSBC economist Jingyang Chen said, citing uneven growth, low inflationary pressures and a heavy household debt burden.
Annual headline inflation in April was the highest in 40 months, but just 1.07%, barely moving into the central bank's 1%-4% target range for the first time since February 2017.
In the Reuters poll, 10 of the 16 analysts who gave a longer-term view predicted no policy rate change for the rest of 2018, while six saw increases, starting from the third quarter.
Tim Leelahaphan, an economist at Standard Chartered, who predicts two quarter-point rate rises this year, said more of the seven MPC members might vote for a hike this week.
Thammarat Kittisiripat, economist at KT Zmico Securities, said the economy should be "strong enough to withstand a small rate rise" in the fourth quarter.
In March, the central bank raised its 2018 growth projection to 4.1% from 3.9% and projected exports up 7%, rather than rise 4% seen earlier.
The last time the BoT hiked its policy rate was August 2011, when it made a quarter-point increase to 3.5%.